Finvest
BUD Beverages · Beer · Global brands · Consumer staples · Thesis updated July 17, 2026

BUD is squeezing more profit from flat beer

01 Running thesis

Profit is moving before volume

AB InBev is not winning because people suddenly drink much more beer. Total reported volume fell 2.5% in 2025. The bull case is that the company still grew organic EBITDA by 4.9% and expanded margin by 101 basis points, helped by pricing, premium brands, and cost control.

The growth pieces are now easier to see. Beyond Beer revenue grew 23% in 2025, led by Cutwater and other ready-to-drink products. Non-alcohol beer revenue grew 34%. BEES Marketplace, the company’s digital ordering and third-party marketplace system, grew GMV by 61% to $3.5 billion.

The bear case is that beer is still a volume business. China had a hard 2025, with revenue down in the low teens in the internal view and volumes down 8.6% in the annual filing. Brazil was hurt by bad weather and a soft consumer. Emerging market currency moves also reduced reported revenue by $1.3 billion in 2025.

The 2026 setup has clear swing factors. The FIFA World Cup in North America, Budweiser’s 150-year anniversary, growth in no-alcohol beer, and China’s shift toward in-home and online-to-offline channels could help. The new problem is geopolitical control: AB InBev Efes Russian operations were placed under temporary management by Russian decree, which clouds the value of that investment.

Mar 2026The 2025 Form 20-F added two important updates. AB InBev closed the roughly $2.9 billion reacquisition of the 49.9% stake in its U.S. metal container plants, while also disclosing that its Russian operations were placed under temporary management.
Feb 2026Q4 2025 showed stronger margin proof, with organic EBITDA up 4.9% for the year and margins up 101 basis points. Brazil improved as weather normalized, and China share trends stabilized to flat in Q4.
Oct 2025Q3 added a larger cash return story with a $6 billion buyback plan. The same update showed a sharper China problem, with revenue down 15.2%, so the net view stayed balanced.
Jul 2025Q2 supported the U.S. recovery thesis, led by Michelob ULTRA and Busch Light share gains. Volume pressure in Brazil and China kept the overall view from improving.
May 2025Q1 showed AB InBev could expand margins even with lower volumes. The U.S. portfolio reached an inflection point, while China remained a major drag.
Mar 2025The 2024 Form 20-F confirmed the existing view and did not change the main thesis. The focus stayed on deleveraging, margin expansion, and weak China demand.
Feb 2025Q4 2024 confirmed the deleveraging story, with net debt to EBITDA below 3x for the first time since 2015. U.S. sales-to-retailers improved, but global volumes still fell 1.4%.
Oct 2024The initial thesis was set after Q3 2024 showed EBITDA growth of 7.1% and margin expansion of 169 basis points. Management also raised full-year EBITDA guidance and announced a $2 billion buyback.
02 Business model

Brands, routes, and cans

AB InBev makes money by brewing beer and other drinks, then selling them through wholesalers, retailers, bars, restaurants, stadiums, grocery stores, and digital channels. Its biggest edge is scale. A brand like Corona or Budweiser can be advertised globally, while local brands such as Busch Light can win in one market.

The company also tries to move drinkers toward higher-priced choices. That can mean premium beer, zero-alcohol beer, or spirits-based ready-to-drink cans. If consumers trade up, AB InBev can grow revenue even when liters sold are flat or down.

BEES is the digital layer. It helps small stores and other customers place orders, and it also runs a marketplace for third-party products. That can make the route to market stickier and add fee-like revenue over time, though it is still much smaller than the beer business.

The model breaks when consumers buy less, switch to cheaper brands, or move from higher-margin bars and restaurants to lower-margin home drinking. It also breaks when input costs, currencies, taxes, or weather move faster than the company can raise prices.

03 Product portfolio

What BUD sells

Cash cow

Global mega-brands

Corona, Stella Artois, and Budweiser are the global flagships. They carry the premium story and help the company earn more per drink.

Steady

North American core brands

Michelob ULTRA and Busch Light are key share gainers in the U.S. They matter because the U.S. business is still a large profit pool.

Growth engine

Beyond Beer

This includes spirits-based ready-to-drink products such as Cutwater. Beyond Beer revenue grew 23% in 2025, and Cutwater has become a major U.S. spirits brand.

Growth engine

Non-alcohol beer

Corona Cero, Michelob Ultra Zero, and other no-alcohol beers give AB InBev a way to serve health-minded drinkers. Non-alcohol beer revenue grew 34% in 2025.

Option

BEES and digital commerce

BEES helps customers order products and supports a third-party marketplace. Marketplace GMV reached $3.5 billion in 2025.

Steady

Packaging and supply chain assets

AB InBev reacquired the 49.9% minority stake in its U.S. metal container plants from Apollo for about $2.9 billion in January 2026. This gives the company more control over a key can supply asset.

04 Business segments

Where sales come from

North America24%declining
Middle Americas29%modest
South America20%declining
EMEA16%modest
Asia Pacific10%declining
Global Export and Holding Companies1%growing fast

The mix below uses 2025 revenue by business segment from the 2025 Form 20-F. North America, Middle Americas, and South America together make up the majority of revenue, so weather, currencies, and consumer health in the Americas matter a lot.

05 Risk factors

What can go wrong

Consumers keep trading down

High impact · Medium odds

Beer demand depends on jobs, wages, inflation, and confidence. If shoppers keep choosing cheaper drinks or drink less, AB InBev may need promotions to protect share. That would pressure revenue per hectoliter and margins.

We watchWatch organic volume growth, revenue per hectoliter, and management comments on value-seeking consumers.

China stays weak

High impact · Medium odds

China volumes fell 8.6% in 2025, and the internal view says revenue fell in the low teens. The company says Q4 share trends improved to flat, helped by Budweiser brand power and in-home channels. That needs to turn into real growth, not only stabilization.

We watchWatch China revenue, volume growth, and market share, especially in the in-home and online-to-offline channels.

Weather hits key regions

Medium impact · Medium odds

Beer is seasonal. Warm weather helps, while cool or wet weather hurts. Brazil was hurt by unseasonable weather in 2025 before volumes returned to growth in December as weather normalized.

We watchWatch Brazil beer volumes, South America volume trends, and management comments on La Niña or other weather events.

Currencies and input costs move against BUD

Medium impact · High odds

AB InBev reports in U.S. dollars but sells in many local currencies. In 2025, currency translation reduced reported revenue by $1.3 billion. Aluminum, barley, energy, freight, and other costs can also squeeze margins if price increases lag.

We watchWatch foreign exchange translation impact, cost of sales per hectoliter, and commodity cost guidance.

Russia investment remains out of reach

Medium impact · Medium odds

A Russian decree placed AB InBev Efes Russian operations under temporary management. The company says there can be no assurance on the status of its investment. This is a direct geopolitical control risk, not a normal operating issue.

We watchWatch any filing update on AB InBev Efes, Russian decrees, and possible impairment or loss recognition.

Cash returns outrun balance sheet progress

Medium impact · Low odds

AB InBev still carries large debt after years of dealmaking. Net debt was $60.9 billion at the end of 2025. The company is also buying back stock and reacquired the U.S. metal container stake for about $2.9 billion, so capital allocation needs to stay disciplined.

We watchWatch net debt to Normalized EBITDA, free cash flow, share buyback pace, and credit rating outlooks.
06 Quick answers

In one breath

What does Anheuser-Busch InBev own?

It owns or controls many beer brands, including Budweiser, Corona, Stella Artois, Michelob ULTRA, and Busch Light. It also sells ready-to-drink products, non-alcohol beer, and some third-party products through its distribution network.

Why does China matter so much for BUD?

China is part of the Asia Pacific segment and has been a major weak spot. Volumes fell 8.6% in 2025, but Q4 share trends improved to flat, so investors are watching whether the turnaround becomes real growth.

What is BEES Marketplace?

BEES is AB InBev’s digital ordering system for business customers. Its Marketplace lets customers buy more than AB InBev products, and GMV reached $3.5 billion in 2025.

What could help BUD in 2026?

The 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America, Budweiser’s 150-year anniversary, growth in no-alcohol beer, and better execution in China could all help. The main question is whether these catalysts can offset soft beer volumes and currency pressure.