Finvest
CIB Banks · Colombia · Digital banking · Emerging markets · Thesis updated July 17, 2026

Strong bank, shaky country

01 Running thesis

Good bank, hard backdrop

Grupo Cibest is the new holding company over Bancolombia and its related businesses. The bull case starts with a simple banking edge: a large Colombian deposit base gives it funding that can be cheaper than what smaller rivals pay. That helps net interest margin, or NIM, which is the spread between what a bank earns on loans and securities and what it pays for funding.

That edge is showing up in guidance. After Q1 2026, management raised 2026 NIM guidance to 7.0% to 7.2% and ROE guidance to 19.5% to 20%. The group is also becoming cleaner. It has a COP 1.3 trillion share repurchase program, about 32% executed as of the end of 2025, and agreed to sell Banistmo in Panama for $1.4 billion in cash.

Nequi is the growth option inside the bank. The platform, now combined with Bancolombia A la Mano, reached 27.4 million users with an activity ratio close to 80%. It broke even in Q4 2025, made about $7 million of administrative net income in Q1 2026, and should start separate accounting in Q3 2026.

The bear case is not that the bank is weak. It is that the country around it can pressure even a good bank. Colombia faces a projected fiscal deficit above 7% of GDP, S&P downgraded the sovereign rating to BB-, and management expects 2026 cost of risk near the high end of its 1.6% to 1.8% range.

May 2026▲Q1 2026 strengthened the operating case. Management raised 2026 NIM guidance to 7.0% to 7.2% and ROE guidance to 19.5% to 20%, while BAM reached a 16.2% ROE.
Apr 2026▼The 2025 20-F confirmed Nequi's standalone authorization and a 36% rise in planned 2026 capex, but also added sharper warnings on Colombia's deficit and U.S. trade risks.
Feb 2026▲Q4 2025 added two positives: Nequi and Wompi reached breakeven, and Grupo Cibest agreed to sell Banistmo for $1.4 billion in cash.
Nov 2025→The transcript labeled CIB was for a different company in Egypt, so no Grupo Cibest thesis change was made.
Aug 2025▲Q2 2025 confirmed the holding company transition and a COP 1.3 trillion buyback plan. The offset was weaker Colombia macro data, including a fiscal deficit projected to exceed 7% of GDP.
May 2025▲Q1 2025 made the Cibest structure more concrete and showed Nequi scale after its merger with A la Mano. Fiscal risk also rose after concerns around Colombia's deficit and IMF credit line.
Feb 2025→Q4 2024 showed improving asset quality and a planned Q2 2025 holding company timeline, but Banistmo's weak ROE became a clear regional drag.
Nov 2024▲The initial thesis focused on the planned Grupo Cibest holding company, future buyback capacity, improving credit quality, and the early monetization path for Nequi.
02 Business model

Spread income plus fees

Grupo Cibest makes money like a universal bank. It takes deposits, makes loans, buys securities, and earns fees from cards, payments, banking services, insurance distribution, trust services, brokerage, and other products.

The key engine is net interest income. In 2025, the 20-F said net interest and valuation income was COP 19,426 billion, up 1.35% from 2024. Lower funding costs helped offset lower loan yields. That is why the deposit base matters so much.

Fees add a second profit stream. Gross fee and commission income from continuing operations was COP 7,929 billion in 2025, up 11.25% from 2024. Cards were about 41% of total fee income, while payments and collections, banking services, and bancassurance were each about 14%.

The model breaks when credit losses rise faster than revenue, deposit costs jump, or regulators force banks to hold low-return assets or pay new taxes. Those risks are live in Colombia, so the stock deserves credit for strong execution but not a free pass on country risk.

03 Product portfolio

What customers use

Cash cow

Colombian banking

This is the core business. It includes deposits, consumer loans, mortgages, corporate banking, cards, and payments in Colombia.

Steady

Commercial lending

The bank lends to companies across Colombia and Central America. Demand has been mixed, with Colombia and Panama weaker while El Salvador and Guatemala have shown better activity.

Steady

Consumer credit and mortgages

Mortgage loans were a growth area in 2025, especially in Colombia. Consumer lending started growing again after two years of contraction, but management is still focused on lower-risk clients.

Growth engine

Nequi

Nequi is the digital bank inside the group. It has 27.4 million users, close to an 80% activity ratio, and is moving to separate accounting in Q3 2026.

Steady

Central American banks

Banco Agricola in El Salvador remains profitable. BAM in Guatemala improved sharply, reaching a 16.2% ROE in Q1 2026 after cost and credit work.

Option

Banistmo

Banistmo in Panama is being sold for $1.4 billion in cash. The sale should simplify the group and free capital, but it must still close as planned.

04 Business segments

Colombia still dominates

Banking Colombia73%modest
Banking El Salvador8%growing fast
Banking Guatemala3%modest
International Banking1%modest
All Other10%growing fast
Banking Panama, discontinued6%declining

This mix uses 2025 gross fee and commission income by reported operating segment from the 2025 20-F. Banistmo is shown separately as discontinued because it is being sold, and this is a fee mix, not a total revenue mix.

05 Risk factors

What could go wrong

Colombia fiscal stress

High impact · High odds

Management warns that high 2026 spending could create the highest fiscal deficit in Colombia's recent history. S&P downgraded Colombia to BB-, which can raise borrowing costs for the government, companies, and banks.

We watchColombia fiscal deficit updates, sovereign rating actions, and local government bond yields.

Credit costs hit the ceiling

High impact · Medium odds

Asset quality improved in 2025, but management expects 2026 cost of risk near the top of its 1.6% to 1.8% guidance range. Higher rates and sticky inflation can make loans harder to repay, especially for households.

We watchQuarterly cost of risk, 30-day and 90-day NPL ratios, and consumer loan charge-offs.

Regulatory capital drag

Medium impact · Medium odds

Banks face possible new equity taxes and possible mandatory investments. These rules could take cash away from buybacks, dividends, lending, or digital growth.

We watchColombian tax bills, mandatory investment rules, and management commentary on capital allocation.

Nequi growth costs more than expected

Medium impact · Medium odds

Nequi is now profitable on an administrative basis, but it still needs heavy investment. The company expects 2026 capital expenditures of COP 1,066 billion, up 36% from 2025, mainly for digital channels.

We watchNequi separate reporting in Q3 2026, user activity ratio, net income, and digital capex.

Banistmo sale delay

Medium impact · Low odds

The Banistmo sale is part of the simplification story. If the $1.4 billion cash deal is delayed or blocked, investors may question how fast the new holding company can turn structure into real capital returns.

We watchFinal closing notices, regulatory approvals, and use of Banistmo sale proceeds.
06 Quick answers

In one breath

Is Grupo Cibest the same as Bancolombia?

Grupo Cibest is the holding company created above Bancolombia and its related businesses. Bancolombia remains the main operating bank and the heart of the group.

Why does Nequi matter for CIB stock?

Nequi gives the group a large digital customer base and a way to serve lower-income and mobile-first users. It has 27.4 million users and should begin separate accounting in Q3 2026, which may make its value easier to judge.

What is the biggest risk for Grupo Cibest?

The biggest risk is Colombia's macro and policy backdrop. A larger deficit, inflation, higher rates, or new bank rules could raise credit losses and reduce capital returns.

Why is Banistmo being sold?

Banistmo had become a drag on regional profitability, and the sale simplifies the group. The agreed price is $1.4 billion in cash.