Finvest
CIGI Real Estate Services · Commercial real estate · Engineering · Asset management · Thesis updated July 1, 2026

Two growth engines, one margin test

01 Running thesis

Growth is better balanced now

Colliers has a clearer growth setup than it had earlier in 2026. Engineering was already the big story because of the planned Ayesa deal. Q1 added a second driver: Commercial Real Estate Services, especially Capital Markets, where revenue grew 43% in the quarter.

Management now expects Capital Markets to grow about 25% for the full year. Leasing is expected to grow around 8%, and Outsourcing around 5%. That helps offset the known problem in Investment Management, where spending on integration is pulling margins down for a few quarters.

The bear case is still real. Investment Management margin was 37.4% in Q1, and management has guided this business to stay in the high 30s before recovering toward the low 40s. If that recovery slips, the company's profit growth can lag its revenue growth.

The stock also needs proof that Ayesa closes cleanly and that debt comes back down after the deal. This is not a clean low-risk story. It is a company trying to turn three different engines at once, while one of them is under repair.

May 2026Q1 strengthened the Commercial Real Estate Services bull case. Capital Markets revenue grew 43%, and management raised the full-year Capital Markets growth outlook to about 25%.
Feb 2026Ayesa gave Engineering a larger growth path, with management guiding that segment to more than 25% top-line growth in 2026. The offset was a sharper Investment Management margin reset into the high 30s.
Nov 2025Leasing rebounded after a weak prior quarter, with revenue up 14%. Investment Management margin pressure became a new watch item because of Harrison Street integration costs.
Jul 2025Colliers raised its full-year outlook after strength in Engineering and Capital Markets. The Investment Management rebrand to Harrison Street and the RoundShield acquisition added strategic depth.
Feb 2025Management gave a stronger 2025 outlook, including low-teens adjusted EPS growth. The thesis shifted toward execution risk in Investment Management integration rather than broad growth worry.
Nov 2024Q3 2024 EPS of $1.32 missed consensus expectations of $1.46. The lack of detailed transcript access raised uncertainty until later updates clarified the growth path.
Aug 2024The starting thesis framed Colliers as three growth engines: commercial real estate, engineering and project management, and investment management. More than 70% of earnings came from more resilient businesses at that time.
02 Business model

Fees from buildings, projects, and capital

Colliers makes money in three main ways. It advises on commercial real estate deals, manages engineering and project work, and earns fees from investment funds through Harrison Street Asset Management.

Some of the business moves with the property cycle. Capital Markets helps clients sell buildings and arrange debt, so it can rise fast when buyers come back. Leasing also depends on tenant demand, office use, warehouse activity, and business confidence.

Management wants the company to be less exposed to that cycle. It says more than 70% of earnings come from more resilient businesses, and that mix approaches 75% after recent acquisitions. Those include Engineering, Investment Management, Property Management, and Outsourcing.

03 Product portfolio

What Colliers sells

Growth engine

Capital Markets

This team helps clients buy, sell, and finance commercial properties. It is cyclical, but it is the fastest current driver inside Commercial Real Estate Services, with Q1 revenue up 43%.

Growth engine

Leasing

Leasing helps landlords and tenants sign space agreements. Q1 revenue rose 9%, led by U.S. industrial property.

Steady

Property Management and Outsourcing

These services are more repeatable than transaction work. Management expects Outsourcing to grow around 5% for full-year 2026.

Growth engine

Engineering and Design

This segment provides engineering and project management services. Management expects more than 25% top-line growth in 2026, helped by the planned Ayesa acquisition.

Option

Harrison Street Asset Management

This unit manages alternative real estate investments and raises new capital from institutions and private wealth clients. The 2026 fundraising target is $6 billion to $9 billion.

Option

RoundShield European credit platform

RoundShield adds European credit, student housing, and hospitality exposure to Investment Management. It also adds integration work, which is part of the near-term margin pressure.

04 Business segments

Revenue mix before Ayesa

Commercial Real Estate Services59%modest
Engineering31%growing fast
Investment Management10%modest

Segment shares use full-year 2025 revenue from Colliers' February 2026 annual results release: $3.29 billion from Commercial Real Estate Services, $1.73 billion from Engineering, and $532.3 million from Investment Management, against $5.56 billion of consolidated revenue. Ayesa can change the mix after it is included.

05 Risk factors

What can break the setup

Investment Management margin recovery slips

High impact · Medium odds

Investment Management is the main execution risk. Q1 net margin was 37.4%, and management expects pressure for a couple of quarters before recovery toward the low 40s. If integration costs last longer, earnings may disappoint even if revenue grows.

We watchInvestment Management net margin moving back toward the low 40s by year-end.

Ayesa adds scale but also debt

High impact · Medium odds

The Ayesa deal expands Engineering in Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East. It is funded with debt, and internal updates cite leverage around 2.9x to 3.0x near the Q2 close, while earlier deal math pointed to about 2.7x pro forma. That gap makes the post-close debt path important.

We watchNet leverage after Ayesa closes and the pace of deleveraging in the second half of 2026.

Commercial real estate recovery fades

Medium impact · Medium odds

Capital Markets and Leasing depend on buyers, lenders, and tenants being active. Q1 was strong, but these lines can turn quickly if rates rise, credit tightens, or property values fall. The raised Capital Markets outlook gives upside, but also sets a higher bar.

We watchFull-year Capital Markets growth staying near management's roughly 25% target.

Fundraising misses the target

Medium impact · Medium odds

Investment Management needs fresh capital to restart stronger fee growth. Management kept its 2026 fundraising target at $6 billion to $9 billion after raising nearly $1 billion in Q1. A shortfall would make the expected 2027 earnings rebound harder.

We watchQuarterly capital raised versus the $6 billion to $9 billion 2026 goal.

Global activity stays uneven

Medium impact · Medium odds

Recent strength was led by North America, while the outlook for EMEA and APAC transaction volume is still an open question. Colliers also reports in U.S. dollars, so currency moves can affect reported earnings. A weaker global backdrop can hit transactions, fundraising, and engineering demand at the same time.

We watchSecond-half transaction growth in EMEA and APAC, plus reported foreign exchange impact on EPS.
06 Quick answers

In one breath

What does Colliers International do?

Colliers advises on commercial real estate, manages engineering and project work, and runs real estate investment funds. Its main segments are Commercial Real Estate Services, Engineering, and Investment Management.

Why is Ayesa important for Colliers?

Ayesa is meant to make Engineering much larger and more global. Management expects the Engineering segment to grow more than 25% in 2026, helped by this deal.

What is the biggest risk for CIGI right now?

The biggest near-term risk is Investment Management margin pressure. Q1 net margin was 37.4%, and the thesis depends on that pressure being temporary.

Is Colliers mainly a real estate broker?

Commercial real estate advice is still the largest revenue segment, but Colliers is broader than brokerage. Management says more than 70% of earnings come from more resilient areas such as Engineering, Investment Management, Property Management, and Outsourcing.