A cleaner utility, stuck in rate fights
- The core story is a regulated utility spending $26.5 billion to upgrade its networks.
- Management expects that plan to drive about 8.3% rate base growth.
- A FERC ruling cut the allowed transmission base ROE to 9.57%, hurting 2026 earnings.
- Eversource is asking FERC to reset the transmission base ROE to 11.39%.
- The Aquarion sale, Connecticut storm cost ruling, and CL&P rate case are the main near-term tests.
Back to basics, but not simple
Eversource has moved back toward a plain regulated utility model. Offshore wind investments were sold in 2024, and the Aquarion water business is still slated for sale if appeals and closing steps clear. That leaves the main business as electric distribution, electric transmission, and natural gas distribution in New England.
The bull case is steady but not exciting. Eversource has a $26.5 billion capital plan that management says can drive about 8.3% rate base growth. Rate base is the amount of utility investment on which regulators let the company earn a return. If regulators allow fair returns, this spending can support the company's long-term 5% to 7% EPS growth target.
The bear case got stronger after FERC lowered the allowed base return on equity for New England transmission owners to 9.57%. Management says that change lowers Eversource's 2026 after-tax earnings by about $70 million. The company is fighting the order and filed a new Section 205 request for an 11.39% base ROE, but that outcome is not in hand.
Visibility should improve over the next year. The Aquarion appeal window was set to end on June 14, 2026, the Connecticut storm cost prudency decision is expected in July 2026, and FERC action on the new ROE filing is expected later in 2026. Until those items clear, this is a regulated utility with a real legal and regulatory overhang.
Paid through regulated bills
Eversource makes money by delivering electricity, natural gas, and water to customers. Its utilities own wires, poles, pipes, substations, and related systems. Regulators set the rates customers pay, including a chance for the company to earn a return on approved investments.
This model can be stable because people still need power and gas in weak economies. It also limits upside because Eversource cannot simply charge whatever it wants. Regulators decide how much cost can be recovered and what return is fair.
Growth mostly comes from building and upgrading infrastructure. The company spends capital, asks regulators to include that spending in rates, then earns a return over time. If regulators delay recovery, cut allowed returns, or reject costs as imprudent, the same capital plan can become a cash flow problem.
Financing matters because utilities spend large sums before they collect through rates. Eversource issued $1.50 billion of junior subordinated notes in February 2026, which helps the financing plan. The pending Aquarion sale would add another source of debt paydown, but the company has planned alternatives if it does not close.
Wires, pipes, and one sale asset
Electric distribution
This is the local delivery of electricity to homes and businesses. It is the largest revenue segment and benefits from distribution rate increases and grid investment.
Electric transmission
This is the high-voltage grid that moves power across New England. It has been a strong earnings driver, but the FERC ROE ruling has made future returns less certain.
Natural gas distribution
This business delivers gas through local pipes. Earnings improved in Q1 2026 due to rate increases and infrastructure investment, though demand is seasonal.
Water distribution
Aquarion provides water service and is tied to a pending sale. PURA approved the sale in March 2026, but appeals and closing conditions still matter.
Electric delivery dominates
Segment shares use Q1 2026 reportable segment operating revenue before Other and eliminations. Electric distribution is the largest piece, while water is small and tied to the pending Aquarion sale.
What can break the plan
FERC ROE fight goes the wrong way
High impact · Medium oddsFERC lowered the New England transmission base ROE to 9.57% and Eversource recorded a $60.4 million pre-tax liability as of March 31, 2026. The company says possible pre-tax losses could range from $60.4 million to $932 million if the broader retroactive period goes against it. That would pressure earnings, cash flow, and investor confidence.
Connecticut storm costs are not recovered
High impact · Medium oddsCL&P is waiting for a PURA prudency decision on storm costs. A favorable result is needed before Eversource can move toward about $1.5 billion of securitization proceeds in Connecticut. A weak decision would hurt cash flow and could keep capital moving away from Connecticut.
CL&P rate case disappoints
High impact · Medium oddsEversource is preparing its first major CL&P electric rate review in about eight years. The filing will test whether Connecticut's regulatory tone has really improved. A low allowed ROE, big disallowances, or hostile stakeholder response would weaken the capital plan.
Aquarion sale slips again
Medium impact · Medium oddsPURA approved the Aquarion sale on March 25, 2026, but the company said legal opposition and possible appeals still create uncertainty. The sale would help pay down parent debt. If it does not close, Eversource can use alternative financing, but that keeps the balance sheet story tighter.
Offshore wind liability grows
Medium impact · Medium oddsEversource sold its offshore wind stakes, but it still has purchase price adjustment exposure tied mainly to Revolution Wind. The contingent liability was $298.2 million at March 31, 2026 after payments, down from $448.2 million at year-end 2025. More cost overruns, tax credit issues, or delays could require another charge.
In one breath
Is Eversource still in offshore wind?
No, Eversource sold its offshore wind investments in 2024. It still has a financial liability tied to the sale terms, mainly around Revolution Wind construction costs.
Why did Eversource cut 2026 guidance?
The FERC transmission ROE ruling lowered expected earnings. Management revised 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance to $4.57 to $4.72 and now bases its 5% to 7% long-term EPS growth target on that lower starting point.
What is the biggest near-term catalyst for ES stock?
The FERC ROE process is the biggest earnings issue. The Connecticut storm cost decision, Aquarion sale closing, and CL&P rate case are also important because they affect cash flow and the quality of future growth.