Finvest
FWONA Live Sports · Motorsport · Media Rights · Tracking Stock · Thesis updated July 12, 2026

F1 demand is strong, but calendars can break

01 Running thesis

A premium sport with a calendar problem

Formula One Group owns the commercial side of Formula 1 and now MotoGP. The good part is simple: more fans, scarce race slots, better media deals, and bigger sponsors can all push revenue higher over time. F1 is still a rare global sports property, and brands such as LVMH Group, Nestlé, Santander, and PepsiCo show that sponsors want to be attached to it.

The newest update cuts both ways. Q1 2026 looked strong, with F1 revenue up because the quarter had three races instead of two and because fees rose by contract. But the full year was hit when the Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grands Prix were canceled, cutting the planned 2026 calendar from 24 races to 22.

The Apple deal is the key upside to watch in the U.S. Management said viewership rose through the first three races and that F1 is reaching a younger and more female audience. That is promising, but the company has not shared the exact subscriber or viewership data investors need to judge the move.

MotoGP is the other swing factor. Liberty closed the Dorna Sports deal in July 2025 and says its first full season under Liberty ownership has increased confidence in the opportunity. The proof still has to show up in durable revenue growth, lower leverage, and clear signs that the F1 playbook works for motorcycle racing too.

May 2026Q1 2026 showed strong reported growth, but the comparison was helped by race timing. The bigger change was negative: Bahrain and Saudi Arabia were canceled, cutting the 2026 F1 calendar from 24 races to 22.
Feb 2026Full-year 2025 results strengthened the long-term case, with total revenue of $3.9 billion and operating income of $632 million. Sponsorship passed 20% of primary F1 revenue, and MotoGP posted $573 million of 2025 revenue.
Nov 2025F1 signed a five-year U.S. media rights deal with Apple starting in 2026. The deal added upside in a key market, but it also raised the risk that some fans may not move from regular TV to a streaming-led setup.
Aug 2025Liberty completed the Dorna Sports acquisition on July 3, 2025, bringing MotoGP into the Formula One Group tracking stock. The main risk shifted from deal approval to integration and execution.
May 2025All ten F1 teams signed the 2026 Concorde Commercial Agreement, securing the sport's core commercial structure through 2030. New sponsors and the opening of the Las Vegas Grand Prix Plaza also supported the bull case.
Feb 2025The 2024 Las Vegas GP missed internal expectations on revenue and operating profit, mainly due to ticket sales. The MotoGP deal also faced a deeper European Commission review, adding uncertainty at the time.
Aug 2024The first thesis centered on F1's commercial rights model, rising fan interest, media renewals, and the pending MotoGP deal. A DOJ investigation into the Andretti rejection was added as a risk.
02 Business model

Selling scarce race weekends

Formula One Group makes money from commercial rights. Race promoters pay fees to host events. Broadcasters and streaming partners pay for media rights. Sponsors pay to put their brands around the sport. Other revenue comes from hospitality, fan products, licensing, and experiences.

Scarcity matters. F1 has said it does not plan to go above 24 races in a season, which helps keep race slots valuable. The Concorde Agreement, the deal that governs revenue sharing and rules with F1 teams, is secured through 2030. That gives the core F1 system more stability than many sports businesses have.

The weak point is that race weekends are physical events. If a race is canceled, high-value promotion fees and related revenue can disappear or move to a later period. The 2026 Middle East cancellations turned that risk from a theory into a real financial headwind.

The model is also shifting toward tech and direct fan relationships. F1 TV, Apple distribution in the U.S., Paddock Club hospitality, F1 Experiences, merchandise, F1 Arcade, and the Las Vegas Grand Prix Plaza all help widen the business beyond race hosting fees.

03 Product portfolio

What fans and partners buy

Cash cow

Formula 1 World Championship

This is the core asset. It supplies race promotion fees, media rights, sponsorship revenue, and most of the brand value behind the tracking stock.

Growth engine

MotoGP

Liberty completed the Dorna Sports acquisition in July 2025. The goal is to grow MotoGP using lessons from F1, while keeping the sport's own identity.

Growth engine

Media rights and F1 TV

Broadcast and streaming deals are a major profit lever. The new Apple U.S. partnership could expand reach, but the company still needs to prove the audience follows F1 onto the platform.

Steady

Sponsorship

Sponsorship became more than 20% of primary F1 revenue in 2025. Premium partners give the sport pricing power and reduce reliance on any one revenue stream.

Option

Hospitality and fan experiences

Paddock Club, F1 Experiences, F1 Arcade, merchandise, and the Las Vegas Grand Prix Plaza turn fan interest into extra revenue. These products can help, but they are smaller and more execution-heavy than the core rights business.

Option

Las Vegas Grand Prix

Las Vegas is a self-promoted event, so F1 keeps more upside but also takes more risk. After weaker 2024 event economics, 2026 needs to show that the race can be a durable profit center.

04 Business segments

Two racing platforms

Formula One87%modest
MotoGP13%growing fast

Segment mix uses Q1 2026 disclosed revenue: Formula One at $617 million and MotoGP at $94 million. Quarterly mix can swing because race timing changes when revenue is recognized.

05 Risk factors

What could go wrong

Race cancellations

High impact · Medium odds

F1 lost the Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grands Prix from the April 2026 schedule because of Middle East conflict. That cut the calendar from 24 planned races to 22. High-fee races matter, so even a strong brand cannot fully offset canceled events.

We watchAny update on rescheduling Bahrain or Saudi Arabia, and the final 2026 race count.

Apple audience migration

Medium impact · Medium odds

The Apple U.S. deal could grow F1 with younger fans, and early comments from management were positive. The risk is that some viewers who watched on regular TV do not follow the sport to an exclusive streaming partner over time.

We watchSpecific U.S. viewership, subscriber, and engagement metrics for F1 on Apple.

MotoGP integration

Medium impact · Medium odds

MotoGP gives Liberty a second global motorsport property, but the acquisition still has to earn its keep. The early thesis depends on commercial growth, better operations, and lower leverage after the deal.

We watchMotoGP revenue growth, adjusted profit measures, and net leverage, especially versus the 4.7x year-end 2025 level.

Las Vegas execution

Medium impact · Medium odds

The Las Vegas GP gives F1 more control and more upside, but it also puts event risk on F1 itself. The 2024 race missed internal expectations on revenue and operating profit, mainly because ticket sales were weaker than expected.

We watchTicket sales, hospitality demand, and reported profitability for the 2026 Las Vegas GP.

Legal and team-entry pressure

Medium impact · Low odds

The DOJ investigation into the Andretti team rejection remains a legal and regulatory overhang. Cadillac's 2026 entry helps the manufacturer story, but team access and competition questions can still draw attention.

We watchAny DOJ update, settlement, or change in F1 team-entry rules.
06 Quick answers

In one breath

What does Formula One Group actually own?

It owns the commercial rights to Formula 1 and, after the Dorna Sports deal, MotoGP. That means it sells hosting rights, media rights, sponsorships, and fan experiences tied to those championships.

Why did Q1 2026 look so strong?

The quarter had three F1 races versus two in Q1 2025, which pulled more event revenue into the period. Contractual fee increases also helped, so the growth was real but not clean to compare.

Why are the canceled Middle East races such a big deal?

Race promotion fees are one of F1's main revenue streams. When Bahrain and Saudi Arabia were canceled, the 2026 calendar fell from 24 planned races to 22, creating a direct hit to full-year revenue.

Is MotoGP already helping the stock story?

It helps by adding another global racing platform, and management sounded more confident after the first full quarter of ownership. The harder proof will be sustained growth, better margins, and lower leverage.