Finvest
GILD Biopharma · Large cap · HIV · Oncology · Thesis updated June 11, 2026

HIV strength funds a risky rebuild

01 Running thesis

The HIV engine got stronger

Gilead is still mainly an HIV company. That is not a bad thing right now. In Q1 2026, HIV product sales were $5.0 billion, up 10% year over year. Management also raised its 2026 HIV growth outlook from about 6% to about 8%.

The main reason is Yeztugo, the new long-acting HIV prevention shot. It had Q1 2026 sales of $166 million, and management raised its full-year 2026 sales guide to $1 billion. If that launch keeps working, Gilead gets more cash and more time to build the next leg of the company.

The rebuild is the hard part. Gilead is buying growth through deals like Arcellx, Tubulis, and Ouro, mainly to deepen oncology and inflammation. Trodelvy is helping, with Q1 2026 sales up 37% year over year. But Cell Therapy is moving the wrong way, down 12% year over year in Q1 2026.

The stock story is balanced. Gilead has a strong cash engine and a longer Biktarvy patent runway to April 2036. But the company is still highly tied to HIV, Biktarvy faces Medicare price negotiation in 2028, and investors are being asked to trust a larger, faster M&A plan.

May 2026Gilead raised 2026 Yeztugo guidance to $1 billion and lifted expected HIV growth to about 8%. Cell Therapy remained the main weak spot, with Q1 2026 sales down 12% year over year.
May 2026The Q1 2026 filing showed HIV sales up 10% to $5.0 billion and Trodelvy sales up 37% to $402 million. It also confirmed new deal activity with Arcellx, Tubulis, and Ouro, which adds pipeline upside and integration risk.
Feb 2026The 2025 Form 10-K added a better Biktarvy patent runway, with earliest U.S. generic entry for full dose Biktarvy set for April 1, 2036. The same filing highlighted 2028 Medicare price negotiation, 340B disputes, and counterfeit drug risk.
Feb 2026Management guided to about $800 million of 2026 Yeztugo revenue and about 6% HIV growth. The update also pointed to a roughly 10% 2026 decline for Kite, showing that oncology remained under pressure.
Nov 2025Gilead disclosed that the Phase 3 ASCENT-07 study for Trodelvy did not meet its main goal. That hurt confidence in the oncology diversification plan.
Oct 2025Yeztugo reached its 75% payer coverage goal ahead of schedule, and management raised 2025 HIV growth expectations to about 5%. At the same time, Cell Therapy guidance worsened to an expected 10% full-year decline.
Aug 2025The Yeztugo launch started faster than expected, with the first prescription written within hours of approval. Gilead raised 2025 base business guidance, helped by HIV strength.
Aug 2025The Q2 2025 filing confirmed Yeztugo's U.S. approval for PrEP, but also disclosed an FDA clinical hold on GS-1720 and GS-4182 HIV treatment trials. HIV was strong, while Cell Therapy competition was getting worse.
02 Business model

Patented drugs, concentrated cash flow

Gilead discovers, develops, and sells prescription medicines for serious diseases. Most revenue comes from patented drugs sold through wholesalers. That means pricing, patent life, insurance access, and doctor use matter a lot.

HIV is the cash cow. Biktarvy is the key treatment drug, and Descovy and Yeztugo help in prevention, also called PrEP. This franchise funds research, dividends, buybacks, and acquisitions.

The risk is concentration. If HIV pricing falls, if Yeztugo slows, or if Biktarvy loses more net price after 2028, the whole company feels it. Oncology and inflammation are supposed to reduce that dependence, but the results are mixed so far.

Gilead is now leaning harder on acquisitions. That can add new science faster than internal research alone, but it also adds integration risk. The company has to bring in new teams and programs while keeping the HIV business running well.

03 Product portfolio

The drugs that matter most

Cash cow

Biktarvy

Biktarvy is Gilead's flagship HIV treatment. A patent settlement moved the earliest U.S. generic entry date for full dose Biktarvy to April 1, 2036, but Medicare price negotiation begins in 2028.

Growth engine

Yeztugo

Yeztugo is a twice-yearly HIV prevention shot. It posted Q1 2026 sales of $166 million, and management raised its 2026 sales guide to $1 billion.

Steady

Descovy and other HIV medicines

Descovy for PrEP continues to grow, while Genvoya, Odefsey, and Symtuza support the broader HIV base. Together, HIV product sales were $5.0 billion in Q1 2026.

Growth engine

Trodelvy

Trodelvy is the stronger part of Gilead's oncology portfolio right now. Q1 2026 sales were $402 million, up 37% year over year.

Option

Yescarta and Tecartus

These Cell Therapy products were meant to diversify Gilead beyond HIV. Q1 2026 sales were $407 million, down 12% year over year because of competition.

Steady

Livdelzi and liver disease drugs

Gilead sells medicines for HCV, HBV, HDV, and primary biliary cholangitis. Liver Disease sales were $767 million in Q1 2026, up 1% year over year.

Steady

Veklury

Veklury is Gilead's COVID-19 antiviral. Q1 2026 sales were $144 million, down 52% year over year as COVID-19 hospitalizations fell.

04 Business segments

Q1 sales still lean on HIV

HIV72%growing fast
Oncology12%modest
Liver Disease11%flat
Veklury2%declining

This mix uses Gilead's product group sales for the three months ended March 31, 2026. The listed product groups total just under reported product sales because of rounding and smaller items, but the message is clear: HIV is the main driver.

05 Risk factors

What could go wrong

Biktarvy price cut in 2028

High impact · High odds

Biktarvy was selected for Medicare price negotiation under the Inflation Reduction Act, with the new price effective in 2028. Gilead says the negotiated Medicare price will be substantially lower than the current Medicare price. The impact could also spread through Medicaid rebates and 340B pricing.

We watchWatch management's estimate of the 2028 Biktarvy net price hit and any changes to HIV margin guidance.

Cell Therapy keeps losing share

Medium impact · High odds

Cell Therapy sales were $407 million in Q1 2026, down 12% year over year. Management tied the decline to in-class and out-of-class competition. If Yescarta and Tecartus do not stabilize, Gilead's oncology diversification looks weaker.

We watchWatch quarterly Cell Therapy sales and whether the year-over-year decline narrows.

Yeztugo launch slows after the early surge

High impact · Medium odds

Yeztugo is a key reason management raised 2026 HIV growth guidance to about 8%. The new full-year 2026 sales guide is $1 billion. If prescriptions, insurance access, or repeat dosing fall short, the stronger HIV outlook could fade.

We watchWatch quarterly Yeztugo sales against the $1 billion full-year 2026 guide.

M&A becomes too much to digest

Medium impact · Medium odds

Gilead is using larger deals, including Arcellx, Tubulis, and Ouro, to build oncology and inflammation. That can speed up growth, but it can also distract teams and add integration costs. The risk rises because the core HIV business must keep executing at the same time.

We watchWatch pipeline delays, deal-related charges, and management comments on integration milestones.

Oncology pipeline disappoints again

Medium impact · Medium odds

Trodelvy is growing, but it already had a Phase 3 miss in ASCENT-07 for HR-positive, HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer. More failures would hurt the case that oncology can become a second growth pillar. Upcoming readouts matter because they shape the long-term value of the franchise.

We watchWatch Phase 3 data from EVOKE-03 and ASCENT-GYN in the second half of 2026.

Drug channel and legal pressure

Medium impact · Medium odds

Gilead disclosed risks tied to counterfeit versions of its medicines and legal fights around the 340B drug pricing program. Counterfeits can hurt patients and trust. 340B disputes can affect how much revenue Gilead keeps from certain drug sales.

We watchWatch 340B court rulings, state laws on contract pharmacies, and any new counterfeit drug disclosures.
06 Quick answers

In one breath

What does Gilead Sciences make?

Gilead makes prescription medicines for HIV, liver disease, cancer, inflammation, and viral infections. Its most important business is HIV, led by Biktarvy for treatment and Yeztugo and Descovy for prevention.

Why is Yeztugo important for Gilead?

Yeztugo is a twice-yearly HIV prevention shot, which makes it easier for some people than taking pills often. It sold $166 million in Q1 2026, and Gilead raised its 2026 sales guide to $1 billion.

What is the biggest risk for Gilead stock?

The biggest risk is that Gilead still depends heavily on HIV while Biktarvy faces Medicare price negotiation in 2028. If the price cut is large and oncology does not grow enough, earnings growth could be limited.

Is Gilead growing outside HIV?

Yes, but the picture is mixed. Trodelvy grew 37% year over year in Q1 2026, while Cell Therapy sales fell 12% year over year because of competition.