GLNG Energy Infrastructure · LNG · Floating LNG · Infrastructure · Thesis updated July 17, 2026

A rare FLNG pure play, priced for proof

Golar has exited legacy LNG shipping and is now a pure floating LNG, or FLNG, service company.
Its main assets are Hilli, Gimi, and the Mark II FLNG now being converted for Argentina.
Hilli and Mark II have 20-year Argentina charters tied to about $17 billion of EBITDA backlog before commodity upside.
Management says the company is targeting up to $1.5 billion of annual run-rate EBITDA as it adds FLNG capacity.
The bear case is simple: large projects, shipyards, pipelines, and commodity prices all have to cooperate.

01 Running thesis

The 2028 cash flow bet

Golar is a focused bet on floating LNG. These are floating plants that sit near a gas field, chill gas into LNG, and load it onto tankers. The company says it is the only proven provider of FLNG as a service, meaning customers can use Golar's plant without building their own.

The bull case is that Golar can roughly double operating FLNG capacity by 2030 and reach up to $1.5 billion of annual run-rate EBITDA. Hilli and Mark II now have 20-year charters in Argentina, with about $17 billion of total EBITDA backlog before commodity upside. That gives the company unusually long visibility if the projects start on time.

There is also a corporate catalyst. Golar started a formal strategic review in March 2026 and hired Goldman Sachs International as financial advisor. Possible outcomes include a sale, merger, asset divestiture, or a new structure. The goal is to close the gap between long-term contracted cash flow and the current market value.

The hard part is timing and cost. Hilli must finish its Cameroon contract, go to Seatrium in Singapore, complete a planned $350 million refurbishment, and then start in Argentina. Mark II must be converted on budget for 2028. The stock already asks investors to believe in that step-up before all the cash is showing up.

May 2026▲Golar converted the SEFE Argentina offtake LOI into an 8-year SPA for 2 mtpa and said the Vaca Muerta pipeline EPC was awarded. Management also returned to a plan to order a fourth FLNG within 2026.

Mar 2026→The 2025 Form 20-F added detail on the strategic review, including Goldman Sachs International as advisor and a possible sale of the company. It also specified the planned $350 million Hilli refurbishment before Argentina.

Feb 2026→Management started a strategic review to address the valuation gap before the expected 2028 cash flow step-up. At the same time, it paused more speculative fourth-unit spending to protect 2026 and 2027 cash flow.

Nov 2025▲All conditions precedent for Mark II's 20-year Argentina charter were fulfilled. Golar also received final credit approvals for a new $1.2 billion Gimi bank facility.

Aug 2025▲Gimi reached commercial operations in June 2025, and the Mark II Argentina charter reached final investment decision on August 6. The delayed Gimi refinancing kept some funding risk in view.

May 2025▲Hilli's 20-year Argentina deployment reached final investment decision after all conditions precedent were cleared. Golar also signed definitive agreements for Mark II to operate alongside Hilli in Argentina.

Mar 2025▲Golar completed its shift to pure FLNG by selling its last LNG carrier and Avenir stake. It also gained full ownership of Hilli after buying the remaining minority interest.

Feb 2025▲The company finalized the end of its 50-year LNG shipping presence and increased direct exposure to Hilli's Brent and TTF upside. Argentina was also de-risked as local gas producers joined the project.

02 Business model

Paid to liquefy stranded gas

Golar makes money by owning and operating FLNG units under long contracts. A gas owner gets a faster way to sell LNG. Golar gets fees, lease revenue, operating service revenue, and in some contracts, upside tied to energy prices.

The model works best when the customer has good gas, needs export capacity, and does not want to fund a full land-based LNG plant. Golar's standardized designs can be redeployed, which can lower capital risk across the life of a vessel.

This is still a capital-heavy business. The 2025 Form 20-F shows $1.18 billion of remaining MKII FLNG capital expenditure commitments and $319 million for Hilli redeployment commitments as of December 31, 2025. That means financing access and project control matter as much as customer demand.

Golar's 2025 operating revenue was concentrated in FLNG. The FLNG segment produced $366.7 million of operating revenue, while Corporate and other produced $26.8 million. That concentration is the point of the strategy, but it also means one delayed vessel can move results.

03 Product portfolio

The fleet is the company

Cash cow

FLNG Hilli

Hilli is a 2.4 mtpa FLNG unit that operated in Cameroon through mid-2026. It is scheduled for a planned $350 million refurbishment before a 20-year redeployment in Argentina.

Steady

FLNG Gimi

Gimi is a 2.7 mtpa FLNG unit serving the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project offshore Senegal and Mauritania. It reached commercial operations in June 2025 and added a new long-term cash flow stream.

Growth engine

Mark II FLNG

Mark II is being converted from the Fuji donor vessel into a 3.5 mtpa FLNG unit. It is contracted for a 20-year Argentina charter expected to start in 2028.

Option

Fourth FLNG unit

Management now says it is focused on ordering a fourth FLNG within 2026. This would extend the growth runway, but also adds supply chain and funding risk.

Option

Macaw Energies

Macaw is Golar's onshore flare-to-LNG effort. It is smaller than the offshore FLNG fleet and carries its own gas quality risks in U.S. shale fields.

04 Business segments

Almost all FLNG now

FLNG93%growing fast

Corporate and other7%declining

Mix is based on 2025 operating revenue in the 2025 Form 20-F. Golar no longer reports Shipping as a separate segment after exiting legacy shipping in 2025.

05 Risk factors

What could break the plan

Hilli refurbishment slip

High impact · Medium odds

Hilli must leave Cameroon, complete a planned $350 million refurbishment, and meet SESA's delivery and technical requirements for Argentina. Any cost overrun or delay can push out the 2027 cash flow ramp.

We watchUpdates on Seatrium yard progress, Hilli redeployment capex, and the Argentina start date.

Mark II conversion risk

High impact · Medium odds

Mark II is the first use of Golar's MKII design and has an expected project cost of about $2.2 billion excluding financing costs. Large conversions can run late because of contractor delays, equipment shortages, and performance testing.

We watchCIMC conversion milestones, delivery guidance for the fourth quarter of 2027, and any change to expected project cost.

Vaca Muerta pipeline delay

High impact · Medium odds

The Argentina plan needs dedicated pipeline capacity from Vaca Muerta to the LNG site. The EPC award lowers the risk, but the line still has to be built on time for Hilli and Mark II.

We watchPipeline construction progress, permitting news, and management comments on the two-year completion timeline.

Commodity price exposure

Medium impact · High odds

Golar's results are exposed to Brent crude and TTF gas prices. The 2025 filing says prior TTF swaps matured at the end of 2024 and no new TTF positions were entered during 2025, leaving more open upside and downside.

We watchBrent prices, TTF prices, and realized gains or losses on oil and gas derivative instruments.

Fourth unit cost inflation

Medium impact · Medium odds

Management has resumed plans to order a fourth FLNG within 2026. Demand for gas turbines and shipyard slots can raise costs, and future units may need specific customer designs.

We watchBoard approval, long lead item orders, shipyard pricing, and whether a customer contract is signed before major spending.

06 Quick answers

In one breath

What does Golar LNG actually do?

Golar owns and operates floating LNG plants. These vessels sit near gas fields, turn natural gas into LNG, and help customers sell that LNG into global markets.

Why is Argentina important for Golar?

Argentina is the next big growth leg. Hilli and Mark II both have 20-year charters tied to the Vaca Muerta gas basin, with about $17 billion of EBITDA backlog before commodity upside.

Is Golar still an LNG shipping company?

No. Golar sold its last LNG carrier in March 2025 and no longer reports Shipping as a separate segment. The company is now mainly an FLNG infrastructure business.

What are the next catalysts for GLNG?

The main items are the outcome of the strategic review, Argentina spot market allocations, progress on the Vaca Muerta pipeline, and whether Golar orders a fourth FLNG unit in 2026.