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GMAB Biotechnology · Cancer drugs · Royalties · Late-stage pipeline · Thesis updated July 17, 2026

Royalty cash funds Genmab’s biotech pivot

01 Running thesis

A cash-rich pivot with trial risk

Genmab’s story is changing. For years, much of the money came from royalties on partner-sold drugs, especially DARZALEX. Now the company wants to become a full biotech, meaning it develops drugs, runs trials, and sells more products itself.

The bull case is that the old royalty stream gives Genmab time and cash to build the new model. EPKINLY is already scaling, with $137 million of global sales in Q1 2026, up 52% from a year earlier. The FDA also removed the 24-hour hospital stay recommendation after the first full dose in third-line or later DLBCL, a type of lymphoma, which should make doctors more willing to use it outside big hospitals.

The next proof points are clinical. Rina-S enrollment finished early in the Phase III RAINFOL-02 ovarian cancer study, so pivotal data moved into 2026. Petosemtamab, added through Merus, gives Genmab another late-stage cancer drug, but the frontline head and neck cancer trial was increased from 500 to 700 patients for a broad reason: improving probability of success. That is not bad by itself, but it leaves a real open question about what management saw.

The bear case is concentration and timing. DARZALEX royalties are still the main profit base, and Genmab says U.S. daratumumab patents expire in 2029, when royalties should begin to fall materially. The stock needs new product sales and late-stage data to arrive before that royalty cliff matters.

May 2026Q1 2026 showed strong EPKINLY execution, with global sales reaching $137 million and growing 52% year over year. Rina-S timing also improved because the Phase III RAINFOL-02 trial finished enrollment early.
May 2026The frontline petosemtamab head and neck cancer trial was increased from 500 to 700 patients. Management called it a probability-of-success step, but the exact reason remains an open question.
Feb 2026The 2025 annual filing confirmed that Merus had closed, adding petosemtamab, BIZENGRI, and new antibody platforms. It also confirmed $5.5 billion of acquisition debt, adding balance sheet risk to the growth story.
Feb 2026EPCORE DLBCL-1 missed its overall survival endpoint in monotherapy. Management cited COVID-19 and more available bispecific drugs, but the miss adds regulatory and perception risk for EPKINLY.
Nov 2025Genmab’s planned Merus acquisition strengthened the owned-asset strategy by adding petosemtamab. The same update showed portfolio discipline, with GEN1042 stopped in frontline head and neck cancer.
Aug 2025EPKINLY delivered positive Phase III follicular lymphoma results, meeting both progression-free survival and response endpoints. Genmab also added a Rina-S plan in non-small cell lung cancer.
May 2025Rina-S showed a 55.6% confirmed objective response rate at the highlighted dose in ovarian cancer data. That raised confidence in Rina-S as a major owned pipeline asset.
Feb 2025Genmab’s 20-F made the DARZALEX royalty cliff clearer, stating that U.S. royalties are expected to begin declining materially in 2029 after daratumumab patent expiration.
02 Business model

Royalties pay for owned launches

Genmab makes money in several ways. The biggest is royalties, which are payments based on sales of drugs that partners sell. In 2025, royalties were $3.102 billion out of $3.720 billion of total revenue, or about 83% of revenue.

The faster-growing part is direct and partnered product sales. Genmab records EPKINLY net product sales in the U.S. and Japan under its AbbVie partnership. It also records or shares economics from Tivdak, depending on the country. In Q1 2026, EPKINLY reached $137 million of sales, while Tivdak reached $39 million.

The Merus acquisition pushes Genmab further toward owning more of its future. It added petosemtamab, BIZENGRI royalties, and antibody technology platforms. The tradeoff is financial. Genmab took on $5.5 billion of loans and notes for the deal, with $4.1 billion effectively fixed at about a 6.6% interest rate, and management wants gross leverage below 3x by the end of 2027.

03 Product portfolio

The drugs that matter

Cash cow

DARZALEX royalties

DARZALEX is sold by J&J, while Genmab receives royalties. It is the main cash source today, but U.S. patent rights on daratumumab expire in 2029.

Growth engine

EPKINLY

EPKINLY is a bispecific antibody, a drug that binds both cancer cells and immune cells. Sales reached $137 million in Q1 2026, and the looser hospital-use language should help community adoption.

Steady

Tivdak

Tivdak is an antibody drug conjugate, meaning an antibody carries a cancer-killing payload. Q1 2026 sales were $39 million, up 18% year over year, and Genmab is taking more responsibility outside the U.S. and China.

Option

Rina-S

Rina-S is a late-stage antibody drug conjugate aimed first at ovarian and endometrial cancers. The Phase III RAINFOL-02 trial in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer finished enrollment early, moving pivotal data into 2026.

Option

Petosemtamab

Petosemtamab came with the Merus deal and is in Phase III studies for head and neck cancer. The frontline study was raised from 500 to 700 patients, which could help success odds but also raises questions about subgroup needs.

Option

Acasunlimab

Acasunlimab remains one of Genmab’s prioritized Phase III programs. It adds another late-stage shot on goal, but like any cancer trial asset, it can lose value quickly if survival or response data disappoint.

Steady

BIZENGRI

BIZENGRI was added through Merus and gives Genmab another royalty medicine. Genmab has said the added BIZENGRI royalties are not expected to be material.

04 Business segments

Revenue still starts with royalties

Royalties83%modest
Net product sales10%growing fast
Milestone revenue3%flat
Collaboration revenue2%modest
Reimbursement revenue1%declining
License fees0%flat

The mix uses 2025 revenue by type from Genmab’s Annual Report Note 2.1. Royalties are the clear majority, so the company is still exposed to partner sales and patent timing even as owned product sales grow.

05 Risk factors

What could break the thesis

DARZALEX royalty cliff

High impact · High odds

DARZALEX royalties are the main profit base. Genmab says U.S. daratumumab patent rights expire in 2029 and royalties should begin to decline materially after that. If EPKINLY, Rina-S, Tivdak, and petosemtamab do not scale fast enough, earnings power could fall.

We watchTrack DARZALEX royalty revenue, partner DARZALEX sales, and Genmab’s 2029 royalty commentary.

Rina-S data miss

High impact · Medium odds

Rina-S is one of the main owned assets meant to replace future royalty pressure. The ovarian cancer Phase III trial enrolled faster than expected, which is good for timing but does not reduce the need for strong efficacy and safety. A weak RAINFOL-02 readout would hurt the owned-pipeline story.

We watchWatch H2 2026 RAINFOL-02 data in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer, especially response rate, survival, and safety.

Petosemtamab trial design uncertainty

Medium impact · Medium odds

Genmab bought Merus in part for petosemtamab. The frontline head and neck cancer Phase III trial was expanded from 500 to 700 patients, with management saying this was to improve probability of success. The open question is whether this reflects a normal power calculation or a need to better capture a subgroup, such as HPV-negative patients.

We watchWatch LiGeR-HN trial updates, subgroup disclosures, and whether management explains the 700-patient design.

EPKINLY confirmatory risk

Medium impact · Medium odds

EPKINLY is growing, but the EPCORE DLBCL-1 monotherapy trial missed its overall survival endpoint. Overall survival means whether patients lived longer, not only whether tumors shrank. Management pointed to COVID-19 and other bispecific drugs as factors, but regulators may still focus on the miss.

We watchWatch FDA and EMA feedback, confirmatory trial status, and the 2026 first-line DLBCL Phase III readout.

Debt and integration load

Medium impact · Medium odds

The Merus deal added $5.5 billion of debt and integration work. Genmab says $4.1 billion is effectively fixed at about a 6.6% interest rate and targets gross leverage below 3x by the end of 2027. If trials cost more, launches slip, or integration charges rise, that deleveraging plan becomes harder.

We watchTrack gross leverage, interest expense, operating cash flow, and Merus integration costs through 2027.
06 Quick answers

In one breath

What does Genmab actually do?

Genmab develops antibody drugs, mostly for cancer. It also earns royalties when partners sell medicines that use Genmab science, with DARZALEX being the biggest example.

Why is DARZALEX so important to Genmab?

DARZALEX royalties are the largest part of revenue and help fund Genmab’s pipeline. The risk is that U.S. patent rights on daratumumab expire in 2029, when those royalties are expected to decline materially.

What is the main bull case for GMAB stock?

The bull case is that Genmab uses royalty cash to build a stronger owned drug business. EPKINLY is already growing, and 2026 data for Rina-S, petosemtamab, and EPKINLY could widen the future revenue base.

What should investors watch in 2026?

The biggest items are Rina-S ovarian cancer data, petosemtamab head and neck cancer data, and EPKINLY first-line DLBCL data. Investors should also watch whether Genmab keeps lowering leverage after the Merus acquisition.