Finvest
HAL Energy Services · Oilfield services · Global energy · Shareholder returns · Thesis updated June 12, 2026

Latin America is pulling Halliburton higher

01 Running thesis

A better turn, not a clean one

Halliburton's outlook is better than it was earlier in 2026. Management moved from expecting international revenue to be flat to up modestly to expecting mid-to-high single digit growth for the full year. That is a real change, and it is led by Latin America, where Q1 2026 revenue rose 22% year over year to $1.1 billion.

The bull case is that this is the start of a broader upturn. International revenue grew 3% in Q1 2026 even with a major drag from Middle East/Asia. If Latin America stays strong, offshore markets keep moving, and North America really bottoms, earnings estimates could move higher.

The bear case is that the mix is fragile. Middle East/Asia was still a large region, with Q1 2026 revenue of $1.3 billion, and it fell 13% year over year because of conflict-related disruptions. North America revenue also fell 4% to $2.1 billion, so the recovery there is still more promise than proof.

Finn's scores fit that middle ground. Valuation and financial health offer some support, and Halliburton plans to return over 50% of annual free cash flow, which means cash left after operating and investing, to shareholders. But growth and performance are not strong enough yet to call this a smooth recovery.

Apr 2026Halliburton's 2026 outlook improved. Management now expects international activity to grow in the mid-to-high single digits, led by Latin America, while North America shows early signs of recovery.
Feb 2026The 2025 Form 10-K showed weak 2025 geography, but management's first 2026 view was less negative. International revenue was expected to be flat to up modestly, led by Latin America.
Oct 2025Management guided to full-year revenue declines in both North America and international markets. Middle East/Asia weakness accelerated because of reduced activity in Saudi Arabia.
Jul 2025Q2 2025 showed wider pressure, with total revenue down 6% year over year. International revenue also declined, weakening the main offset to North America softness.
Apr 2025Q1 2025 weakened the case because North America revenue fell 12% and international revenue fell 2%. Latin America was especially weak, with revenue down 19%.
Feb 2025The 2024 Form 10-K muted the bull case by guiding for flat 2025 international revenue and lower North America revenue. It also added a material IRS dispute risk tied to the Baker Hughes termination fee.
Nov 2024The company lowered its 2024 international growth outlook to mid to high single digits. It also made a cybersecurity incident a material risk factor.
Jul 2024The initial view centered on international growth offsetting North America weakness. The key positives were global scale, technology, and cash returns, while the main risks were the North America cycle and geopolitics.
02 Business model

Paid when producers spend

Halliburton makes money when oil and gas companies spend on wells. Its customers include major oil companies, national oil companies, and independent producers. Halliburton helps them locate reservoirs, drill wells, complete wells, and improve production after the well starts flowing.

The business has two operating segments. Completion and Production handles work such as cementing, stimulation, intervention, pressure control, artificial lift, and completion products. Drilling and Evaluation handles drilling tools, drilling fluids, software, testing, wireline, and well placement.

This model can produce strong cash when producers are active, but it is tied to customer budgets. If oil and natural gas prices fall, producers often cut drilling and completion work. That can pressure both revenue and pricing, especially in North America.

Management is trying to make the cycle easier to handle. Its priorities include international growth, more technology in North America, digital and automation tools, capital spending of about $1.1 billion for 2026, and returning more than 50% of annual free cash flow through dividends and share repurchases.

03 Product portfolio

Tools across the well life

Cash cow

Completion and Production

This is Halliburton's larger segment. It generated $3.0 billion of Q1 2026 revenue, but revenue fell 3% year over year because of weaker North America stimulation work and Middle East pressure.

Steady

Drilling and Evaluation

This segment generated $2.4 billion of Q1 2026 revenue and grew 4% year over year. Latin America project work and drilling services in Europe and the Western Hemisphere helped offset Middle East weakness.

Steady

Stimulation and pressure pumping

These services help open rock so oil and gas can flow. They are important in North America, but Q1 2026 results showed lower stimulation activity in U.S. Land and the Gulf of America.

Growth engine

Completion tools

Completion tools help finish wells so they can produce. Q1 2026 filings point to higher completion tool sales in the Western Hemisphere and Norway, even as sales fell in parts of the Middle East.

Growth engine

Drilling tools, fluids, and well placement

These offerings help customers drill more accurately and manage the wellbore. Q1 2026 strength came from increased drilling-related services in Europe and the Western Hemisphere.

Option

Digital and automation

Halliburton is investing in systems such as automated well-construction tools and digital software. These can help customers cut time and waste, but they still depend on customer spending cycles.

04 Business segments

Two engines, one cycle

Completion and Production56%declining
Drilling and Evaluation44%modest

Segment mix is based on Q1 2026 revenue from Halliburton's Form 10-Q. Geographic exposure matters too: Latin America grew fast, while Middle East/Asia fell sharply in the same quarter.

05 Risk factors

What could break the recovery

Middle East conflict spreads or lasts

High impact · Medium odds

Middle East/Asia revenue fell 13% year over year in Q1 2026 to $1.3 billion. Halliburton said conflict caused work cancellations, force majeure declarations, lower offshore activity, and higher logistics costs. More disruption could cancel out gains in Latin America and offshore markets.

We watchTrack Middle East/Asia revenue growth, management comments on work cancellations, and any force majeure updates.

North America recovery fades

Medium impact · Medium odds

North America revenue still fell 4% year over year in Q1 2026 to $2.1 billion. Management sees early signs of a services-market recovery, but that is not the same as a confirmed rebound. If customers keep tight budgets or pricing stays weak, earnings growth could stall.

We watchWatch North America revenue, U.S. land activity, pricing comments, and signs that customers are reducing calendar white space.

Oil and gas prices cut customer budgets

High impact · Medium odds

Halliburton's activity depends on upstream spending by oil and gas producers. Lower oil or natural gas prices often lead customers to delay drilling and completion work. That can hurt utilization, pricing, and margins.

We watchMonitor WTI, Brent, Henry Hub natural gas, rig counts, and producer budget updates.

IRS Baker Hughes tax dispute

Medium impact · Low odds

The IRS wants to reclassify about 95% of the $3.5 billion Baker Hughes termination fee paid in 2016 from an ordinary expense to a capital loss. Halliburton estimates an unfavorable outcome could mean about $640 million of cash taxes due, plus interest. The company is in the IRS administrative appeals process and says no payment is currently required.

We watchWatch for updates on the IRS administrative appeal, any court filing, or a change in tax reserve language.

Cybersecurity disruption

Medium impact · Medium odds

Halliburton disclosed that an unauthorized third party accessed systems in 2024, took information, and caused business disruption. The company added cyber risk as a material risk factor. A larger incident could affect operations, costs, customer trust, or regulatory exposure.

We watchLook for new cyber disclosures, litigation, regulatory action, or unusual system-related operating costs.
06 Quick answers

In one breath

What does Halliburton actually do?

Halliburton provides products and services used to find, drill, complete, and produce oil and gas wells. It is paid by energy producers when they spend on exploration, development, and production work.

Why did the Halliburton thesis improve in 2026?

Management raised its international outlook to mid-to-high single digit growth for full-year 2026. Latin America was the main reason, with Q1 2026 revenue up 22% year over year.

What is Halliburton's biggest risk right now?

The biggest watch item is Middle East/Asia disruption. The region fell 13% year over year in Q1 2026 because of conflict-related issues, and deeper disruption could offset growth elsewhere.

Does Halliburton return cash to shareholders?

Yes. Management has a framework to return over 50% of annual free cash flow through dividends and share repurchases, and Q1 2026 included both dividends and buybacks.