Finvest
HMC Automobiles · Global auto · Motorcycles · Hybrids · Thesis updated July 17, 2026

Motorcycles steady Honda while EVs hurt

01 Running thesis

A strong floor, with EV damage

Honda is being pulled in two directions. The good side is its motorcycle business, which keeps growing and throws off cash. North American demand for hybrid electric vehicles, or HEVs, also remains solid. Tariff fears have eased from the worst case, with management now using a JPY 310 billion net impact.

The hard part is the car transition. Honda canceled the launch and development of certain EV models in the U.S. It also discontinued or cut production of some EV models made with a U.S. alliance partner. Those moves helped drive a ¥414.3 billion operating loss for fiscal 2026.

The stock story now depends on whether Honda can protect the profitable gas, hybrid, and motorcycle base while it rewrites its EV plan. The next watch points are the EV strategy update expected next fiscal year, China rare earth export rules, and the final cost of talks with GM tied to canceled BEV plans.

Jun 2026Honda confirmed it canceled certain U.S. EV models and cut or stopped some alliance EV production. Fiscal 2026 operating loss was ¥414.3 billion, mainly from EV-related losses and tariffs.
Feb 2026The net tariff estimate fell to JPY 310 billion, and Vietnam ICE restrictions had only limited sales impact. Offsetting that, management flagged rare earth and memory chip supply risk, plus open GM compensation talks.
Nov 2025A Nexperia chip shortage was expected to cut North American production by 110,000 units and profit by JPY 150 billion. Management also said China EVs were weak on price and missing NOA features.
Aug 2025Honda reduced the gross tariff estimate from JPY 650 billion to JPY 450 billion after U.S. and Japan tariff changes. It also leaned harder on hybrids and motorcycles while taking EV write-offs.
Jun 2025The annual filing confirmed tariff risk and China EV pressure, with no major change to the business model.
May 2025Management set a low fiscal 2026 operating profit floor of JPY 500 billion due to tariff risk. Honda also postponed its CAD 15 billion EV value chain project in Canada.
Feb 2025Honda showed strong North American gas and hybrid profitability, but tariff exposure rose as management detailed U.S. reliance on Canada and Mexico production. EV incentives also remained a margin drag.
Nov 2024The baseline view formed around a profitable motorcycle base and strong North American hybrid demand. China capacity cuts, U.S. EV incentives, and possible Mexico tariffs were the main offsets.
02 Business model

Cars pay the bills, bikes steady them

Honda makes money by selling automobiles, motorcycles, power products, and financing tied to vehicle sales. Automobiles bring in the most revenue. Motorcycles are smaller by revenue but are important because they have been more stable and profitable.

The current model leans on gas and hybrid vehicles, especially in North America. Honda also sells BEVs, or battery electric vehicles, but early sales have needed heavy incentives. When incentives rise, Honda can sell more EVs but earns less per car.

Management is slowing parts of the EV rollout to defend core profit. That includes postponing a CAD 15 billion EV value chain project in Canada and writing off development assets after changes to its product range.

The model breaks if Honda loses share in China faster than motorcycles and North American hybrids can offset it. It also breaks if tariffs, chips, memory parts, or rare earth metals choke production again.

03 Product portfolio

What Honda sells

Cash cow

Gas and hybrid automobiles

This is the core profit pool, especially in North America. Honda has strong hybrid demand, but planned price hikes have been limited by competitor discounting.

Option

Battery electric vehicles

BEVs are the long-term bet, but Honda has slowed spending as demand cooled. The company canceled certain U.S. EV models and cut some alliance model production.

Cash cow

Motorcycles

Motorcycles are Honda's steadier earnings floor. Fiscal 2026 unit sales rose 7.2%, helped by India, Brazil, and the Philippines.

Steady

Financial services

Honda finances retail buyers, leases, and dealers. This supports vehicle sales and made up 16% of fiscal 2026 revenue.

Steady

Power products and other businesses

This includes engines and related products. It is a small piece of Honda, with 2% of fiscal 2026 revenue.

Option

China Ye series EVs

These models are struggling against local rivals. Management said Honda's pricing was around CNY 200,000 versus about CNY 150,000 for some competitors, and the cars lacked NOA features.

04 Business segments

Fiscal 2026 revenue mix

Automobile Business64%declining
Motorcycle Business18%modest
Financial Services Business16%flat
Power Products and Other Businesses2%declining

Segment shares use Honda's fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 revenue from external customers. Autos dominate the mix, but motorcycle profit quality matters more than its revenue share suggests.

05 Risk factors

What could go wrong

Another supply chain choke point

High impact · Medium odds

A Nexperia chip shortage cut North American production plans by about 110,000 units and carried a JPY 150 billion operating profit hit. Management said the main chip issue had good prospects for not recurring. New risks are showing up in memory chips and rare earth metals, partly tied to China export rules.

We watchNorth American production schedules, inventory comments, and any new rare earth or memory chip export limits from China.

China EV share loss

High impact · High odds

China is moving fast toward NEVs, or new energy vehicles. Honda's Ye series has been weak because pricing is high and key driver assist features are missing. Management postponed the GT model, which signals the gap is not a small issue.

We watchYe series pricing, NOA feature timing, GT launch status, and further joint venture capacity cuts.

U.S. tariff cost

High impact · Medium odds

Honda remains exposed to U.S. tariff policy because many vehicles and parts cross borders before sale. The feared hit has come down, but management still used a JPY 310 billion net impact. If policy changes again or certificates do not clear, profit could fall again.

We watchHonda's next tariff estimate, U.S. trade policy changes, and USMCA certificate progress.

EV write-offs and GM talks

High impact · Medium odds

Honda's fiscal 2026 operating loss was ¥414.3 billion, mainly due to EV-related losses and tariffs. The company canceled certain U.S. EV models and cut or stopped some alliance models. Management also flagged a remaining amount tied to negotiation with GM.

We watchAny settlement or charge tied to GM, plus the next EV product plan.

Compliance cars with weak margins

Medium impact · Medium odds

Tough emissions rules can force Honda to sell more BEVs even when incentives are high. Earlier management comments said U.S. EV incentives were about $7,000 per unit above original assumptions. Honda is trying to reduce supply where it can, but rules can limit that choice.

We watchU.S. ZEV and ACC rules, EV incentive levels, and Honda's BEV sales mix.
06 Quick answers

In one breath

Is Honda mainly a car company or a motorcycle company?

By revenue, Honda is mainly an auto company. In fiscal 2026, autos were 64% of revenue, while motorcycles were 18%. The motorcycle business still matters a lot because it is a key profit floor.

Why did Honda lose money in fiscal 2026?

Honda reported a ¥414.3 billion operating loss. Management said the main causes were EV-related losses and tariff impacts, partly tied to canceled U.S. EV plans and alliance model cuts.

Are Honda hybrids still doing well?

Yes, the internal view is that North American HEV demand remains strong. The problem is not demand alone, but production limits, tariffs, competitor discounting, and EV losses.

What is the next big catalyst for Honda?

The biggest company-specific catalyst is the next EV strategy overhaul. Investors should also watch China rare earth export restrictions and the final outcome of BEV compensation talks with GM.