Harmony's copper pivot must earn its premium
- Harmony still gets over 90% of current production from South African gold.
- Management now targets copper at about 40% of production by FY35.
- Mponeng and Moab Khotsong are high-grade cash engines, but Moab faces a planned dip from 6 tonnes to 4 tonnes between 2027 and 2031.
- The MAC Copper deal closed on 24 October 2025 and adds the CSA copper mine in Australia.
- Wafi-Golpu remains the big prize and the big delay, with its Special Mining Lease still not secured.
Gold cash funds copper
Harmony is trying to change what kind of miner it is. Today it is still mainly a South African gold miner. By FY35, management wants copper to be about 40% of production, using Eva Copper, MAC Copper, and Wafi-Golpu.
The bull case is simple. Strong gold mines such as Mponeng and Moab Khotsong throw off cash while gold prices are high. That cash can help fund long-life copper assets, which could lower Harmony's cost curve and reduce its reliance on deep South African gold mines. The MAC Copper acquisition closed on 24 October 2025, so this plan is no longer only a future idea.
The bear case is execution. Harmony is in a heavy spending cycle. Eva Copper still needs final permitting and a positive final investment decision. Wafi-Golpu still needs its Special Mining Lease and mine development contract. Moab Khotsong is also expected to fall from 6 tonnes to 4 tonnes of gold output between 2027 and 2031 because project timing left a production gap.
This is a real transition story, not a clean one. If copper projects arrive on time and MAC Copper integrates well, Harmony can look more global and lower cost. If permits slip, contractors stay scarce, or gold margins cool before copper cash flow arrives, the stock can quickly look too dependent on old mines.
Deep mines, tailings, and projects
Harmony makes most of its money by mining and selling gold. In fiscal 2024, it sold 48,222 kilograms of gold, equal to about 1.6 million ounces. The company also processes old mine waste, called tailings, where small amounts of gold are recovered from material mined years ago.
Its cost base is heavy. Mining needs labor, power, equipment, explosives, contractors, and ongoing development work. Harmony said cash costs are about 80% to 85% of total costs, excluding impairments and some other items, and labor is usually 55% to 60% of production costs.
The model works best when gold prices are high, the South African rand is weak against the U.S. dollar, and mines hit planned grades. It breaks when shafts lose flexibility, hoisting limits hold back ore, power prices rise faster than planned, or safety stoppages cut production while fixed costs keep running.
Copper is the attempted fix. Eva Copper, MAC Copper, and Wafi-Golpu would add longer-life, more global production. But those projects need permits, capital, contractors, and time before they can replace the risk of deep South African gold.
What Harmony sells
South African underground gold
This is the core of Harmony today. Mines such as Mponeng and Moab Khotsong provide high-grade production, but deep mining brings safety, labor, power, and shaft bottleneck risk.
Mine Waste Solutions
This tailings operation recovers gold from old mine waste. Harmony fulfilled its Franco-Nevada streaming obligations on 23 October 2024, so future gold revenue from this operation is based on quoted market prices.
Hidden Valley gold and silver
Hidden Valley gives Harmony exposure outside South Africa in Papua New Guinea. It also produces silver, which is a small byproduct revenue stream.
Moab Khotsong uranium byproduct
Moab Khotsong also produces uranium as a byproduct. It is not the main business, but it adds some value when the mine plan and prices allow.
Eva Copper
Eva is a planned Australian copper project. Management has guided to 55,000 to 60,000 tonnes of copper per year, plus 14,000 ounces of gold byproduct, over a 15-year mine life, with first copper targeted in calendar 2029.
CSA copper mine from MAC Copper
Harmony acquired MAC Copper on 24 October 2025, including the CSA underground copper mine near Cobar in New South Wales. Management said the deal should be immediately EBITDA accretive, meaning it should add earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization right away.
Wafi-Golpu
Wafi-Golpu is the largest copper-gold prize in the portfolio, but it is still delayed. Harmony still needs the Special Mining Lease and mine development contract before the project can move toward a final investment decision.
Current production mix
The mix below uses fiscal 2024 gold sold by disclosed reportable operations in Harmony's 2024 Form 20-F. It does not yet include MAC Copper, because that acquisition closed after fiscal 2024.
What could break the plan
Copper projects slip
High impact · Medium oddsHarmony's long-term rerating depends on copper reaching about 40% of production by FY35. Eva Copper still needs final permitting and a positive final investment decision, while Wafi-Golpu needs major government approvals. Delays would keep Harmony more exposed to deep South African gold for longer.
Wafi-Golpu permit and reputation risk
High impact · Medium oddsWafi-Golpu remains delayed because Harmony still needs the Special Mining Lease and mine development contract. The project also faces reputational and possible legal risk after an August 2025 OECD Examiner report found certain activities appeared not to align with OECD Guidelines in some areas. A permit win without local trust could still be a messy win.
Moab production gap
Medium impact · High oddsManagement expects Moab Khotsong output to fall from 6 tonnes to 4 tonnes between 2027 and 2031. The gap comes from sequencing delays around the Zaaiplaats project. That matters because Moab is one of the mines expected to fund the transition.
Deep mine bottlenecks
Medium impact · Medium oddsDeep underground mines can lose production for reasons that are hard to fix quickly. Harmony has already flagged hoisting capacity constraints at Doornkop and contractor shortages at Moab Khotsong and Mponeng. Safety stoppages, lower grades, or shaft limits can cut ounces while many costs stay fixed.
Gold price, rand, and power squeeze
High impact · Medium oddsMost revenue still comes from gold, and most South African costs are in rand. Harmony benefits when the gold price is strong and the rand is weak, but margins can shrink if gold falls, the rand strengthens, or power costs rise. Eskom's 12.7% tariff increase effective from April 2024 was expected to add R800 million of operating costs.
More impairments
Medium impact · Medium oddsHarmony recorded a R2,793 million impairment charge in fiscal 2024 tied to Target North after drilling reduced the expected resource base. That shows how quickly project value can change when geology disappoints. More write-downs would hurt reported earnings and investor trust.
In one breath
Is Harmony Gold mainly a gold company or a copper company?
Today it is mainly a gold company. Management wants copper to become about 40% of production by FY35 through Eva Copper, MAC Copper, and Wafi-Golpu.
Why does the MAC Copper deal matter for Harmony?
MAC Copper gives Harmony an operating copper mine in Australia, the CSA mine. It makes the copper pivot more real because Harmony now owns producing copper exposure, not only future projects.
What is the biggest permit risk for Harmony?
Wafi-Golpu is the key permit risk. Harmony still needs the Special Mining Lease and mine development contract before the project can move toward a final investment decision.
Why is South Africa still important to the Harmony thesis?
Over 90% of current production still comes from South African gold operations. These mines fund the transition, but they also bring deep-mine, power, labor, and currency risk.