The tower story is now a deal spread
- MTN Group agreed to buy IHS for $8.50 per share in cash.
- The deal depends on IHS closing the sales of its Latin American tower and fiber businesses.
- The core business is shared tower space sold to mobile carriers under long-term contracts.
- IHS reported $11.9 billion of contracted revenue with an average remaining lease term of 7.8 years.
- Nigeria is the key market, which means currency, regulation, and MTN customer risk still matter until the deal closes.
Mostly a take-private bet
IHS used to be a hard-to-read turnaround story. The company owned valuable towers, but the public stock was weighed down by debt, Naira swings, diesel costs, and customer worries. That changed when MTN Group agreed to take IHS private for $8.50 per share in cash.
The bull case is now simple. If the merger closes, public shareholders get cash and avoid years of waiting for currency and leverage problems to fade. IHS has also signed deals to sell its Latin American assets, including its tower operations in Brazil and Colombia to Macquarie for about $952 million of enterprise value and its 51.0% stake in I-Systems to TIM.
The bear case is also clear. The merger agreement says IHS must meet cash requirements, and management says that depends on closing both Latin American sales. If those sales run into regulatory, financing, or timing problems, the MTN deal can break or take longer than investors expect.
So the stock should be viewed less like a normal tower company now. The main question is the spread between the trading price and the promised cash price, balanced against the chance and timing of closing.
Renting space on shared towers
IHS makes money by owning tower sites and renting space on them to mobile network operators. A carrier pays IHS to place antennas and equipment on a tower. If another carrier joins the same site, IHS earns more rent without building a whole new tower.
The main revenue drivers are new sites, colocation, and lease amendments. Colocation means adding another tenant to an existing tower. Lease amendments mean an existing customer adds more equipment, often to improve 4G or 5G service.
The model is built on long contracts. IHS disclosed $11.9 billion of contracted revenue from key customers and an average remaining lease term of 7.8 years in its 2024 annual filing. That gives the business visibility, but it also ties IHS closely to a small group of carriers.
Power used to be a major weak spot because many African sites need diesel generators. IHS has changed contracts to pass more diesel and power risk to customers, especially in Nigeria, and moved away from full power managed services in South Africa. That helps margins, but currency moves and customer payment behavior still matter.
What IHS sells
Macro towers
These are the main tower sites used by mobile carriers. They form the base of IHS's long-term lease revenue.
Colocation
IHS adds more tenants to towers it already owns. This can lift revenue with limited extra site cost.
Lease amendments
Existing tenants pay more when they add equipment or services. This is tied to data growth and network upgrades.
Build-to-suit sites
IHS builds new sites after a customer commits to a long-term lease. The TIM Brazil plan covered up to 3,000 new sites before the Latin America exit plan changed the story.
Fiber connectivity
Fiber helps connect towers and customers, especially in Brazil. IHS has agreed to sell its 51.0% stake in I-Systems to TIM.
Power and managed services
IHS can provide site services such as power, security, and maintenance. The company has reduced direct power risk in Nigeria and South Africa.
Africa after the exits
The mix uses full-year 2025 reported revenue, including Latin America as a discontinued operation. Latin America is backward-looking because IHS has agreed to sell its Brazil and Colombia tower operations and its I-Systems fiber stake.
What can break the deal
Latin America sale delay
High impact · Medium oddsThe MTN merger cash condition depends on IHS completing the Latin American tower and fiber sales. The tower sale also depends on regulatory approvals and a successful capital raise by Macquarie-managed funds. A delay could stretch the deal timeline or put the take-private at risk.
MTN merger conditions fail
High impact · Medium oddsThe buyer has agreed to pay $8.50 per share in cash, but closing is not automatic. Shareholder approval, regulatory approvals, and IHS cash and debt thresholds still matter. If any key condition is missed, the stock could trade again on the weaker stand-alone story.
Nigeria concentration
High impact · Medium oddsNigeria is IHS's largest market and MTN is a major customer. That creates a double risk: the buyer is also a key tenant. Any change in Nigerian carrier spending, regulation, or payment behavior can hurt cash generation before closing.
Customer credit and churn
Medium impact · Medium oddsIHS has already seen tenancy churn tied to a smaller Nigerian customer, Nine Mobile, as part of a deal to settle historic overdue balances. This shows that contracted revenue is not the same as cash in the bank. Weak carriers can leave sites or pay late.
Currency and power costs return
Medium impact · Medium oddsIHS has reduced diesel exposure through power indexation and contract changes, but it still reports in U.S. dollars while earning in local currencies. A sharp Naira move can hurt reported revenue and cash movement. Power clauses help, but they may not remove all timing gaps.
In one breath
Is IHS still a public company?
Yes, but MTN Group has agreed to take it private for $8.50 per share in cash. The deal still needs required approvals and IHS must meet cash and debt conditions.
Why does IHS need to sell Latin America?
The merger agreement links IHS's cash condition to the sale of its Latin American tower and fiber operations. IHS has signed deals to sell the LatAm towers to Macquarie and its 51.0% I-Systems stake to TIM.
What does IHS actually do?
IHS owns and operates mobile tower sites. Wireless carriers rent space on those towers, add equipment over time, and often sign long contracts.
What is the biggest risk for IHS shareholders now?
The biggest near-term risk is that the MTN take-private does not close. The most important signals are Latin America sale approvals, buyer financing, and merger condition updates.