Finvest
KEP Utilities · Regulated utility · Korea · Nuclear · Thesis updated July 17, 2026

Profit is back, but tariffs still rule

01 Running thesis

A repair story with a regulator

KEPCO is in a financial repair phase. Management is working through a KRW30 trillion stabilization plan that runs from 2022 to 2026. The company has already made real progress. In 2025, sales were Won 96,568 billion and net profit was Won 8,667 billion, up from Won 3,622 billion in 2024.

The bull case rests on three things. Fuel costs have eased, prior tariff hikes are flowing through, and nuclear generation is expected to rise in 2026. Nuclear power usually lowers the blended cost of power because it uses less imported fuel than coal or LNG.

The bear case is still easy to see. KEPCO cannot set prices on its own, and management has said there is limited room for more industrial tariff hikes. At the same time, industrial demand is weak. Industrial electricity demand fell 2.1% in 2025, hurt by petrochemicals and steel.

This is why the stock should be read as a policy-linked utility repair story, not a clean growth story. More profit and dividends help. But the pace of balance sheet repair still depends on fuel prices, the won, government tariff choices, and whether large customers keep buying through KEPCO.

Apr 2026The 2025 Form 20-F confirmed a much stronger profit year, with net profit rising to Won 8,667 billion from Won 3,622 billion. The same filing also showed a 2.1% drop in industrial demand, so the recovery is better but not risk-free.
Feb 2026Management confirmed 2025 sales volume was down 0.1%, but also guided for more nuclear generation in 2026. Dividends resumed, with DPS around KRW 1,541 per share.
Aug 2025The thesis added two pressure points: limited room for more industrial tariff hikes and large customers such as LG Chem moving to direct power purchases. The focus shifted toward non-industrial tariff changes and regional pricing.
May 2025Q1 profit remained strong, with consolidated operating profit of KRW3.75 trillion and net profit of KRW2.36 trillion. Management also warned that full-year sales volume could decline because exports and manufacturing were soft.
Apr 2025The 2024 Form 20-F confirmed that KEPCO returned to net profit after a large 2023 loss. Lower fuel costs as a share of sales supported the margin recovery.
Nov 2024The starting thesis centered on KEPCO's KRW30 trillion financial stabilization plan, tariff dependence, and a shift toward more nuclear power. The setup was a repair story tied closely to government pricing.
02 Business model

Power sales under state-set prices

KEPCO is an integrated electric utility. It transmits and distributes substantially all electricity in Korea. It also owns six generation subsidiaries, including Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power, which runs nuclear and hydro assets.

The company makes most of its money by selling electricity to homes, businesses, factories, and other users. It gets power from its own subsidiaries and from independent power producers. In 2025, KEPCO sold 549,417 gigawatt-hours of electricity to customers.

The model breaks when costs rise faster than tariffs. Most fuel other than anthracite coal is imported, so coal, LNG, and currency moves matter. KEPCO has a cost pass-through tariff system, but the filing says it has built-in limits and is subject to government discretion.

The Korean government also matters as an owner. As of the end of 2025, the government and Korea Development Bank together owned 51.1% of KEPCO's common shares. That gives policy goals a direct role in pricing, dividends, and capital decisions.

03 Product portfolio

The power mix that drives costs

Cash cow

Retail electricity sales

This is the core revenue stream. KEPCO sells power across Korea under tariffs approved by the government.

Steady

Transmission and distribution

KEPCO handles substantially all power transmission and distribution in Korea. This makes it central to the grid, but also tightly regulated.

Growth engine

Nuclear generation

Nuclear output is a key margin lever. Management expects nuclear contribution to rise in 2026, with capacity factors targeted in the mid-to-high 80% range.

Steady

Coal generation

Coal remains a major part of the generation base, but management expects its contribution to decrease in 2026. It also brings fuel and emissions cost risk.

Steady

LNG generation

LNG helps balance the system, but it exposes KEPCO to imported fuel prices and foreign exchange. Management expects LNG contribution to stay largely flat in 2026.

Option

Overseas and new energy businesses

KEPCO has other income sources, including overseas business. Interest in the U.S. nuclear market could become an upside option, but it is not the main profit driver today.

04 Business segments

Electricity demand by customer use

Industrial electricity51%declining
Commercial electricity25%modest
Residential electricity16%modest
Other electricity uses8%flat

The mix is based on 2025 electricity sales volume from KEPCO's latest Form 20-F. Shares use gigawatt-hour volumes because the filing gives demand by usage, not a revenue percentage.

05 Risk factors

What could set back the repair

Fuel and currency shock

High impact · Medium odds

KEPCO buys most generation fuel from outside Korea, and prices are often tied to foreign currencies. The fuel cost to sales ratio improved to 20.1% in 2025 from 24.3% in 2024, but that benefit can reverse if LNG, coal, or the won move the wrong way.

We watchWatch LNG and coal prices, the won to U.S. dollar exchange rate, and KEPCO's fuel cost to sales ratio.

Tariff reform stalls

High impact · High odds

KEPCO needs tariffs that better match its costs. Management has said there is limited room for more industrial tariff increases, so the next lever may be non-industrial tariffs or regional pricing. If the government delays or waters down reform, profit repair could slow.

We watchWatch government decisions on non-industrial tariff changes and the regionally differentiated tariff system.

Industrial demand keeps falling

Medium impact · High odds

Factories are the largest demand group. Industrial electricity demand was 280,221 gigawatt-hours in 2025, down 2.1% from 2024 because of weakness in power-heavy areas like petrochemicals and steel. A deeper industrial slowdown would pressure sales volume.

We watchWatch quarterly industrial power sales, export data, and activity in petrochemicals and steel.

Large customers bypass KEPCO

Medium impact · Medium odds

A new risk is direct power purchasing by large corporate users. Management cited LG Chem's Yeosu plant as an example of a customer buying directly from the power exchange. That removes the customer from KEPCO sales and cost of sales.

We watchWatch announcements from large industrial users about direct purchases or power exchange contracts.

Nuclear output misses the plan

Medium impact · Medium odds

The 2026 margin case depends partly on more nuclear generation. Newer reactors such as Shinhanu Unit 2 help, and management is aiming for nuclear capacity factors in the mid-to-high 80% range. Outages or delays would force more reliance on higher-cost power sources.

We watchWatch nuclear capacity factor, reactor outage reports, and the actual 2026 generation mix.
06 Quick answers

In one breath

Why did KEPCO become profitable again?

Fuel costs eased, prior tariff hikes helped, and the generation mix improved. KEPCO reported Won 8,667 billion of net profit in 2025, up from Won 3,622 billion in 2024.

Does KEPCO control its own electricity prices?

No. Electricity rates are regulated by the Korean government. That protects customers, but it can hurt KEPCO when fuel or purchased power costs rise faster than tariffs.

Why does nuclear power matter so much for KEPCO?

Nuclear power can lower the average cost of electricity generation because it is less exposed to imported fossil fuel prices. Management expects nuclear contribution to increase in 2026.

What is the biggest risk for KEP investors?

The biggest risk is that costs rise or demand weakens while tariff reform does not keep up. KEPCO's recovery depends on government pricing choices as much as on company execution.