Kaspi still compounds, but rules now bite
- Kaspi runs three large engines: Payments, Marketplace, and Fintech.
- Marketplace is the fastest grower, helped by e-Grocery GMV up 53% year over year.
- Turkey is now roughly 50% of Kaspi e-Commerce GMV after the Hepsiburada deal.
- Pay by palm reached almost 0.5 million users and about 10% of Almaty store transactions in under 90 days.
- The hard part is that higher rates, taxes, reserves, and new capital rules are slowing profit growth.
A great app meets tighter rules
Kaspi is still one of the cleaner super app stories in public markets. It has millions of consumers and merchants using the same app to pay, shop, borrow, save, and sell. That gives Kaspi many chances to earn small fees from the same customer without needing a classic card-fee model.
The bull case is that Kaspi keeps adding useful products to an already busy app. e-Grocery GMV rose 53% year over year. Kaspi AI helps merchants improve listings. Kaspi Alaqan, its pay by palm system, reached almost 0.5 million users in Almaty and about 10% of store transactions there in under 90 days. Management also showed discipline by ending the capital-heavy 1P part of e-Cars in Q4 2025.
Turkey is the big swing factor. Hepsiburada has moved fast enough that Turkey is now roughly 50% of Kaspi e-Commerce GMV. Management plans to run the Turkey business around EBITDA breakeven in 2026. The pending Rabobank purchase would give Kaspi a Turkish banking license, which is the missing piece for launching fintech products there.
The bear case is not about product demand alone. Kazakhstan has higher interest rates, higher reserve needs, a 25% bank corporate tax rate from 2026, and a new 2% capital buffer on most retail loans. Those rules tie up capital and pressure near-term net income. The stock can work if the app keeps compounding and Turkey opens a new profit pool, but the next year has real drag.
Fees, spreads, and more merchant tools
Kaspi makes money from three platforms. Payments earns fees from merchant and consumer payments, plus some interest income from balances. Marketplace earns seller fees, delivery fees, advertising fees, and retail revenue from first-party areas like e-Grocery. Fintech earns interest and fees from BNPL, consumer loans, car finance, merchant finance, and deposits.
The core trick is cross-selling. A shopper who uses Kaspi QR can also buy goods, take BNPL, book travel, save money in a deposit, and use government services in the same app. A merchant can accept payments, advertise, deliver items, borrow, take business deposits, and manage taxes through Kaspi Pay.
This model can be very profitable when transactions grow faster than costs. The weak spot is that fintech uses a balance sheet. When rates rise, deposits cost more. When regulators raise reserves or capital buffers, Kaspi must hold more low-return assets or capital. First-party grocery also adds inventory and logistics risk that the classic third-party marketplace did not have.
Turkey adds both upside and mess. Kaspi controls Hepsiburada, but the bank deal is separate and still needs approval. Building a marketplace plus bank model in a new country could create a second growth engine, or it could dilute margins while management learns a new rulebook.
What users actually do in the app
Kaspi Pay and QR payments
Payments are the daily habit layer. Kaspi QR, card payments, bills, P2P, and B2B payments keep consumers and merchants active.
Marketplace
Marketplace covers e-Commerce, in-store mobile commerce, Travel, e-Cars, and e-Grocery. Revenue is growing faster than GMV because advertising, delivery, and travel fees are rising.
Fintech
Fintech includes BNPL, general loans, car finance, merchant finance, and deposits. It is profitable, but higher deposit costs and new capital rules are pressuring margins.
Kaspi Alaqan pay by palm
Alaqan lets shoppers pay with a palm scan. Fast early use in Almaty could make checkout easier and deepen merchant lock-in, but rollout cost and margin impact are still open questions.
Merchant services and advertising
Kaspi sells merchants delivery, classifieds, brand ads, and tools to advertise on platforms like Facebook and TikTok. Kaspi AI Assistant helps improve product listings.
Hepsiburada and Turkey fintech
Hepsiburada gives Kaspi a large Turkish marketplace base. Rabobank would give it a banking license to test Kaspi-style fintech products in Turkey.
Deposits
Kaspi is growing customer deposits, including high-yield fixed-term products for consumers and business deposits for merchants. This supports lending, but it costs more when rates are high.
Three engines, close in size
The mix uses 2025 segment net income from Kaspi’s latest 20-F and the company view that Payments and Marketplace together are about 68% of the mix. Hepsiburada is included in Marketplace, so Turkey now matters more to the segment.
What could break the thesis
Kazakhstan capital rules squeeze returns
High impact · High oddsA new 2% sectoral countercyclical buffer applies from April 1, 2026 to retail loans, which make up 83% of Kaspi Bank’s risk-weighted assets. That means more capital must sit behind the loan book. It can slow growth or lower returns even if credit quality stays fine.
Higher rates hurt fintech margins
High impact · High oddsKaspi funds loans mainly with customer deposits. When market rates rise, it must pay more to keep deposits. The 2025 20-F says higher than normal rates directly reduced Fintech profitability.
Taxes and reserves keep net income muted
Medium impact · High oddsKazakhstan added a 10% tax on revenue from government securities and higher reserve requirements. Banks also face a 25% corporate tax rate from 2026. These items can make profit grow slower than revenue.
Turkey integration gets messy
High impact · Medium oddsKaspi is trying to manage Hepsiburada near EBITDA breakeven in 2026 while also buying a separate Turkish bank. A marketplace and a bank do not automatically fit together in a new country. Political consumer boycotts could also hurt Hepsiburada GMV.
Smartphone supply shocks return
Medium impact · Medium oddsNew smartphone registration rules and iPhone shortages caused a sharp GMV hit in Q4 2025. Demand returned to growth in January 2026, but the event showed how one high-ticket category can move Marketplace results. A repeat would hurt GMV and merchant fees.
First-party grocery lowers marketplace margins
Medium impact · Medium oddsMost of Kaspi’s marketplace is third-party, where merchants hold inventory. e-Grocery is first-party, so Kaspi handles more logistics and inventory risk. Fast growth is good, but the margin profile is less clean.
In one breath
What does Kaspi.kz actually do?
Kaspi runs a super app in Kazakhstan. Consumers use it to pay, shop, borrow, save, book travel, and use government services, while merchants use Kaspi Pay to accept payments, sell goods, advertise, deliver, and borrow.
Why is Turkey important for Kaspi?
Kaspi bought control of Hepsiburada, a Turkish e-commerce company. Turkey is now roughly 50% of Kaspi e-Commerce GMV, and the pending Rabobank deal could let Kaspi launch banking and fintech products there.
What is Kaspi Alaqan?
Kaspi Alaqan is a pay by palm system. In Almaty, it reached almost 0.5 million registered customers and about 10% of store transactions in under 90 days, but the cost and profit impact of a nationwide rollout are still unclear.
Why is the Finn performance score not higher?
Kaspi is still growing, but several outside pressures are hitting near-term profit. Higher rates, higher reserves, new taxes, and new capital buffers all make the business harder to run at its old level of profitability.