MARA’s AI pivot now depends on power
- Bitcoin mining still drives nearly all reported revenue, with $172.2 million from mining in Q1 2026.
- The Long Ridge deal would add a 505 MW Ohio power plant with expected all-in operating costs below $15 per MWh.
- Management says the Starwood joint venture could sign multiple AI or HPC tenants by year-end 2026.
- The mining cost problem is real: purchased energy cost per bitcoin reached $40,047 in Q1 2026.
- The biggest near-term question is whether FERC limits how MARA can use Long Ridge power behind the meter.
Power is the swing factor
MARA is no longer best viewed as a plain bitcoin miner. The company is trying to become a digital infrastructure business. The simple idea is to control cheap power, use bitcoin mining as the first workload, then shift some sites toward AI and high-performance computing when customers are ready.
The bull case depends on Long Ridge. If MARA closes the roughly $1.5 billion acquisition without harsh limits, it would own a 505 MW gas power plant in Ohio. Management says the plant produced $144 million of annualized adjusted EBITDA in the second half of 2025 and could support a much larger AI campus over time. That would give MARA a scarce asset: power near compute demand.
The bear case is also clear. Mining is getting more expensive. MARA said purchased energy cost per bitcoin at owned sites rose to $40,047 in Q1 2026, up from $35,728 in Q1 2025. That means the spread between bitcoin price and mining cost matters a lot for cash flow.
The stock also carries a price and balance sheet question. MARA is funding the pivot partly by selling bitcoin rather than using its ATM equity program, which helps dilution risk. But Long Ridge adds deal, debt, and regulatory risk. A low Finn score fits this setup: the upside is large, but the proof is still ahead.
Turning energy into compute
MARA makes most of its money by mining bitcoin. Its computers solve bitcoin network problems and earn block rewards and transaction fees. In Q1 2026, mining revenue was $172.2 million.
The company also owns a large bitcoin treasury. As of March 31, 2026, it held about 35,303 bitcoin, with 9,995 activated through lending or collateral. This can create yield, but it also adds counterparty risk because borrowed or pledged bitcoin depends on other parties paying back and performing.
The next leg is AI and HPC, which means high-performance computing for tasks like artificial intelligence. MARA has two paths. The Starwood joint venture aims to develop large data centers for hyperscale tenants, while Exaion SAS targets sovereign, enterprise, and private cloud AI compute.
The model breaks if power is not as cheap or as controllable as planned. A PJM market monitor has pushed for conditions that could require Long Ridge output to stay available to the grid. If FERC accepts that view, MARA may not get the full behind-the-meter advantage it is buying.
What MARA sells or owns
Bitcoin production
This is the current core business. MARA operated about 72.2 EH/s of energized hashrate as of March 31, 2026.
Bitcoin treasury and yield
MARA held about 35,303 bitcoin as of March 31, 2026. It also lends or pledges some bitcoin and now sells bitcoin at times to fund growth.
Long Ridge power generation
The pending Long Ridge acquisition would add a 505 MW combined-cycle gas plant in Hannibal, Ohio. MARA expects all-in operating costs of less than $15 per MWh.
Grid and energy services
MARA can reduce or shift mining load when grids need power. This helps monetize flexible demand at mining sites.
Starwood AI and HPC data centers
The Starwood joint venture is meant to turn powered land into large data centers for major tenants. Management has guided to possible tenant leases by year-end 2026.
Exaion AI and private cloud
Exaion SAS gives MARA a second AI path focused on sovereign, enterprise, and private cloud customers. This market cares about where data is stored and who controls it.
Revenue still comes from mining
Segment mix is from the three months ended March 31, 2026. Mining produced $172.2 million of revenue, while hosting services produced $1.1 million from expired agreements and had no remaining customers.
What could break the thesis
FERC limits Long Ridge power use
High impact · Medium oddsThe Long Ridge deal is built around controlling power for compute. A PJM market monitor has recommended that FERC require the 505 MW plant to keep output available to PJM markets. If that condition is imposed, MARA may lose much of the behind-the-meter benefit it wants.
Long Ridge fails to close
High impact · Medium oddsThe acquisition has a roughly $1.5 billion base purchase price and still depends on closing conditions. Failure to close would be a major setback to the energy-backed AI plan. The company could also face a $75.0 million termination fee in some cases.
Bitcoin mining margins keep shrinking
High impact · High oddsMARA’s purchased energy cost per bitcoin at owned sites rose to $40,047 in Q1 2026. That cost rose mainly because global network hashrate and difficulty increased. If bitcoin price falls or difficulty keeps rising, mining cash flow can weaken fast.
AI tenants do not sign
High impact · Medium oddsManagement has expressed confidence in signing multiple AI or HPC leases through the Starwood joint venture by year-end 2026. Until a tenant signs, the AI pivot is still a plan rather than a proven revenue stream. Lease terms will matter as much as tenant names.
Bitcoin treasury risk spreads
Medium impact · Medium oddsMARA uses part of its bitcoin treasury for lending or collateral. As of March 31, 2026, 9,995 bitcoin were activated this way. That can add income, but it also adds borrower, collateral, and operational risk.
In one breath
Is MARA still a bitcoin mining company?
Yes. Mining is still the main source of reported revenue. The company is trying to add AI data centers and power generation, but those plans are not yet the main business.
Why does the Long Ridge acquisition matter so much?
Long Ridge would give MARA control of a 505 MW power plant in Ohio. Cheap and reliable power is the key input for both bitcoin mining and AI data centers.
What is behind-the-meter power?
Behind-the-meter power means using electricity directly from a nearby plant instead of buying it through the normal grid process. MARA wants that setup because it can lower cost and speed up data center development.
What should investors watch next?
The main items are the FERC ruling, the closing of Long Ridge, and the first major AI or HPC tenant lease. Bitcoin price versus MARA’s mining cost also remains critical.