Finvest
MBIN Banks · Regional bank · Mortgage finance · Thesis updated July 2, 2026

Regulatory relief, but credit still bites

01 Running thesis

The overhang eased, the loan cleanup did not

Merchants Bancorp had one clear win in Q1 2026. Regulators released the bank from its mid-2025 Memorandum of Understanding, or MOU. That matters because the MOU had limits tied to capital, asset concentrations, and risk controls.

The best part of the business is still Mortgage Warehousing. This unit gives short-term funding to mortgage lenders until those loans are sold to investors. Q1 2026 funded volume grew 65% from a year earlier, faster than the 43% industry increase cited by the company.

The problem is credit. Nonperforming loans, meaning loans not paying as agreed, rose to 2.16% of total loans at March 31, 2026 from 1.79% at year-end 2025. The softer sign is that criticized loans, meaning weaker loans watched more closely by the bank, fell 31% from March 31, 2025.

The stock case is balanced. Bulls can point to the MOU removal and strong warehouse share gains. Bears can point to $23.0 million of Q1 2026 charge-offs and the still open questions around multi-family loans, healthcare loans, and a mortgage fraud investigation.

May 2026The Q1 2026 filing showed the bank was released from its FDIC and DFI MOU. Mortgage Warehousing volume grew 65% year over year, while the NPL ratio rose to 2.16%.
Feb 2026The 2025 10-K showed nonperforming loans fell to 1.79% of total loans after heavy charge-offs. Mortgage Warehousing funded volume grew 46% for the year.
Nov 2025The Q3 2025 filing showed the bank exceeded the capital levels agreed to in the MOU. Credit remained a drag, with the NPL ratio at 2.81% and $29.5 million of quarterly charge-offs.
Aug 2025The Q2 2025 filing introduced a confidential MOU with regulators. It also showed $46.1 million of charge-offs and linked part of the stress to a mortgage fraud or suspected fraud investigation.
May 2025Q1 2025 confirmed both sides of the thesis. Warehouse funded volume grew 49% year over year, but nonperforming loans rose to 2.73% of total loans.
Feb 2025The 2024 10-K showed nonperforming loans more than tripled to 2.68% of total loans. The main stress came from variable-rate multi-family and healthcare borrowers.
Nov 2024The Q3 2024 filing showed nonperforming loans jumped to 2.04% of total loans. Management also sold $629 million of healthcare bridge loans into a private securitization to reduce risk.
Aug 2024The initial view framed MBIN as a fast-growing mortgage-focused bank with rising credit stress. At June 30, 2024, nonperforming loans were 1.30% of total loans.
02 Business model

A mortgage bank inside a bank

Merchants makes money in two main ways. First, it originates fixed-rate loans that often meet government program standards, then sells many of them. That creates gain-on-sale income and servicing fees.

Second, it keeps adjustable-rate loans on its balance sheet. Those loans produce net interest income, which is the spread between what borrowers pay and what the bank pays for deposits and borrowings.

The funding base comes from mortgage custodial deposits, municipal deposits, retail and commercial deposits, brokered deposits, and short-term borrowings. That gives Merchants several funding pipes, but it also means higher rates and deposit pressure can hit margins.

The model works best when mortgage activity is healthy, loan sales stay open, and credit losses stay low. It breaks when property values fall, borrowers cannot refinance, or warehouse customers pull back.

03 Product portfolio

Where the loans come from

Growth engine

Mortgage Warehousing

This unit funds mortgage lenders for short periods, usually until loans are sold to investors. It was the standout in 2025 and Q1 2026, with funded volume far ahead of the industry.

Steady

Multi-family Mortgage Banking

This business finances and services multi-family housing and healthcare facilities, often through government-backed channels. It also includes low-income housing tax credit syndication and debt funds.

Cash cow

Loan servicing

Servicing means Merchants collects payments and handles loan administration after loans are made. Fees can be steady, but the 2025 segment result was hurt by lower loan servicing fees.

Steady

Banking portfolio loans

The Banking segment holds loans such as multi-family, healthcare, residential mortgage, agricultural, and SBA loans. This is the largest asset base, but it is also where recent credit costs have been concentrated.

Steady

Community banking deposits and services

Merchants gathers deposits from retail, commercial, municipal, mortgage, and brokered channels. Deposits help fund lending, but their cost can rise when rates stay high.

04 Business segments

Banking is biggest, warehousing is fastest

Banking59%declining
Mortgage Warehousing38%growing fast
Multi-family Mortgage Banking3%modest

Segment mix uses year-end 2025 segment assets from the 2025 Form 10-K: Banking at $11.3 billion, Mortgage Warehousing at $7.3 billion, and Multi-family Mortgage Banking at $526.4 million. The mix is asset-based, not revenue-based, so it shows balance sheet weight rather than fee mix.

05 Risk factors

What could still go wrong

Nonperforming loans stay high

High impact · Medium odds

The NPL ratio rose to 2.16% at March 31, 2026 from 1.79% at year-end 2025. That keeps pressure on earnings because the bank earns less interest on problem loans and may need more reserves.

We watchQuarterly NPL ratio, especially whether it falls below 1.79% and moves toward 1.5%.

Charge-offs keep draining capital

High impact · Medium odds

Merchants charged off $23.0 million in Q1 2026 across seven relationships, mainly in healthcare and multi-family loans. If this pace continues, the credit cleanup could keep hurting Banking segment profit and capital.

We watchQuarterly charge-offs and provision for credit losses.

Fraud investigation costs more

High impact · Medium odds

Management has tied part of the credit stress to an ongoing investigation of borrowers involved in mortgage fraud or suspected fraud. The key unknown is how much exposure remains and whether more losses appear.

We watchCompany updates on the fraud investigation, related loan exposure, and any new specific reserves.

Mortgage warehouse growth slows

Medium impact · Medium odds

Mortgage Warehousing is the main growth engine. If mortgage volumes weaken or competitors price more aggressively, the segment could lose momentum after Q1 2026 funded volume grew 65% year over year.

We watchFunded warehouse loan volume versus industry mortgage volume.

Rates and funding costs squeeze spreads

Medium impact · Medium odds

Merchants funds loans with a mix of deposits and short-term borrowings. If funding costs rise faster than loan yields, net interest income can fall even if loan balances grow.

We watchDeposit costs, short-term borrowing levels, and net interest margin.
06 Quick answers

In one breath

What does Merchants Bancorp do?

Merchants Bancorp is a bank holding company based in Carmel, Indiana. It focuses on mortgage warehousing, multi-family and healthcare lending, mortgage banking, SBA lending, and community banking.

Why did the MOU matter for MBIN?

The MOU was a regulatory agreement with the FDIC and DFI that required certain risk and capital actions. Its termination in Q1 2026 removed a major overhang, but it did not erase the bank's credit problems.

What is the biggest risk for MBIN stock?

The biggest risk is credit quality. Nonperforming loans rose to 2.16% of total loans in Q1 2026, and the bank is still taking material charge-offs in healthcare and multi-family loans.

Why is Mortgage Warehousing important?

It is the fastest-growing segment and a major profit driver. In Q1 2026, funded volume grew 65% year over year, which showed continued market share gains.