Recovery is real, but risks got sharper
- Fiscal 2026 sales grew 7.1% after customers worked down excess inventory.
- Gross margin improved to 57.7% in fiscal 2026 from 56.1% in fiscal 2025.
- The core business is still mixed-signal microcontrollers, which made up 50.0% of fiscal 2026 sales.
- New PIC64 64-bit microprocessors and a 3-nanometer PCIe Gen 6 switch give Microchip higher-growth options.
- The Malaysian tax dispute could cost up to MYR 1.9 billion, about $480.2 million as of March 31, 2026.
A chip cycle turns upward
Microchip is coming out of a hard chip downcycle. In fiscal 2025, customers had too much inventory and cut orders. Fiscal 2026 looked better: sales grew 7.1%, and management said demand improved after customers reduced excess inventory.
The bull case is that this is more than a restock. Gross margin rose to 57.7% in fiscal 2026 from 56.1% in fiscal 2025, even though factory underuse was still costly. If sales keep rising and factories run fuller, profit margins can keep moving back toward normal.
The growth story also has new parts. Microchip has entered the 64-bit microprocessor market with its PIC64 RISC-V family. It is also building a 3-nanometer PCIe Gen 6 switch for AI and enterprise data centers. These products could help the company grow faster than its older long-life chip lines.
The bear case is that the recovery is still young. Global demand, trade rules, China tensions, Middle East supply risks, and AI-related security or product risks could slow the rebound. The Malaysian tax dispute has also grown into a large cash overhang.
Tiny chips, sticky designs
Microchip sells embedded control products. These are chips that help machines sense, decide, connect, and control things. Its customers use them in cars, factories, aircraft, defense systems, data centers, appliances, and connected devices.
The company uses a Total System Solution model. That means it tries to sell more than one chip into the same design, such as a microcontroller, analog chip, memory product, and connectivity part. Once a customer designs these parts into a product, switching can be slow and risky.
This model works best in markets with long product lives. A factory controller or car platform may use the same chip family for years. That can make revenue stickier than in consumer gadgets, but it also means growth can slow when customers pause orders.
Microchip uses both its own factories and outside manufacturers. That gives it supply control, but it also creates a fixed-cost problem. When demand falls, empty factory capacity hurts margins, as shown by $200.8 million in unabsorbed capacity charges in fiscal 2026.
From control chips to data centers
Mixed-signal microcontrollers
PIC and AVR microcontrollers are the center of the company. They help control devices in industrial, automotive, aerospace, defense, and consumer applications.
Analog and interface chips
These include power management, linear, mixed-signal, and interface products. Analog rose to 28.2% of fiscal 2026 sales from 26.3% in fiscal 2025.
PIC64 64-bit microprocessors
The PIC64 family moves Microchip beyond 32-bit designs into 64-bit RISC-V processors. Management is targeting high-performance, mission-critical uses in industrial, aerospace, defense, and space markets.
Data center PCIe and CXL products
PCIe switches, SSD controllers, and CXL controllers aim at standard servers and AI-accelerated servers. The 3-nanometer PCIe Gen 6 switch is the key proof point to watch.
Automotive networking
Microchip sells Ethernet switches, control chips, analog parts, and the VelocityDRIVE software platform for software-defined vehicles. Auto demand can be attractive, but supply chain stress can hit this market quickly.
Connectivity and memory
The company sells wired and wireless connectivity, including Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, and Ethernet, plus memory products. These parts help Microchip sell more content into each customer system.
Fiscal 2026 sales mix
Microchip reports product lines, not formal operating segments. The mix below is from fiscal 2026 net sales by product line.
What could break the rebound
Restock fades into weak demand
High impact · Medium oddsFiscal 2026 showed recovery after the fiscal 2025 inventory correction. The risk is that customers rebuilt only enough stock to catch up, then slow orders again if the economy weakens.
Factory underuse drags margins
Medium impact · Medium oddsMicrochip still had $200.8 million in unabsorbed capacity charges in fiscal 2026, up from $173.0 million in fiscal 2025. That means factories were not full enough to absorb fixed costs, even as the business recovered.
Malaysia tax case hits cash
High impact · Medium oddsThe Malaysian tax dispute is now a larger overhang. The company says the possible liability could be up to MYR 1.9 billion, about $480.2 million based on the exchange rate as of March 31, 2026.
Geopolitics disrupt supply
Medium impact · Medium oddsThe latest 10-K adds specific risk language on Middle East instability and critical materials. It also keeps trade tension with China in view. Any disruption could raise costs or delay shipments.
AI adds new attack surfaces
Medium impact · Medium oddsMicrochip now calls out AI risks across products, operations, cybersecurity, regulation, intellectual property, privacy, and customer demand. AI can help product development, but it can also create new security and compliance failures.
New growth products ramp slowly
Medium impact · Medium oddsPIC64 and the 3-nanometer PCIe Gen 6 switch are important to the long-term story. The open question is how fast they turn into revenue. If design wins are slow, Microchip remains more tied to its older cyclical markets.
In one breath
What does Microchip Technology make?
Microchip makes embedded control chips and related products. Its lineup includes microcontrollers, analog chips, interface chips, memory, connectivity, FPGAs, and newer 64-bit microprocessors.
Why did Microchip recover in fiscal 2026?
Customers had spent fiscal 2025 reducing excess chip inventory. In fiscal 2026, demand improved as those customers needed to buy again, and net sales grew 7.1%.
What is the biggest risk for MCHP right now?
The main business risk is that the recovery stalls before factories are used well enough to lift margins. The largest named cash overhang is the Malaysian tax dispute, with a possible exposure of about $480.2 million.
How is Microchip tied to AI?
Microchip is not mainly an AI chip company, but it sells products into data center infrastructure, including PCIe and CXL solutions. Its 3-nanometer PCIe Gen 6 switch targets AI and enterprise data centers.