Finvest
MDT Medical Devices · Healthcare · Dividend · Global · Thesis updated July 12, 2026

Growth improves, but MiniMed still matters

01 Running thesis

Better growth, messier structure

Medtronic's fiscal 2026 update made the growth story look stronger. Total revenue rose 8% to $36.4 billion. Cardiovascular grew 12%, Diabetes grew 13%, and Medical Surgical grew 5%. That is a clear improvement from the weaker Medical Surgical trend seen earlier.

The bull case is simple. Medtronic has a wide device portfolio, sells in more than 150 countries, and has new product cycles in heart care, surgical robotics, and diabetes technology. If those keep working, the new three-segment core company could grow faster than investors used to expect.

The bear case is also real. The Diabetes split is no longer just a plan, but it is not finished. MiniMed has gone public, yet Medtronic still owns about 90% of it. That leaves investors exposed to MiniMed while also adding tax, timing, and capital allocation questions.

The other big watch item is Medical Surgical. Its fair value was only about 12% above its carrying value in the annual impairment test, including goodwill. In plain English, if that business slips, Medtronic may need to write down part of the value it carries on the books.

Jun 2026Fiscal 2026 revenue grew 8%, led by 12% Cardiovascular growth and 13% Diabetes growth. The MiniMed IPO moved the Diabetes split from plan to partial divestiture, but the remaining stake keeps execution risk in view.
Feb 2026Q3 results showed better growth, including a step-up in Medical Surgical. The same filing also disclosed a thin 12% goodwill cushion for Medical Surgical, which kept the risk view balanced.
Nov 2025Medtronic kept double-digit growth in Cardiovascular and Diabetes, while Medical Surgical returned to positive growth. The Diabetes separation plan still lacked key details.
Jun 2025Fiscal 2025 results showed Medical Surgical stabilizing after prior weakness. Medtronic also announced its plan to separate Diabetes into a new public company.
Feb 2025Diabetes and Neuromodulation stayed strong, but Medical Surgical fell 2% in the quarter. That kept the main bear case focused on whether the surgical business could recover.
Nov 2024Diabetes grew 12% and Neuroscience accelerated, helped by Neuromodulation. Medical Surgical was still weak, with only 1% growth.
Aug 2024Q1 fiscal 2025 revenue grew 3%, with Diabetes up 12% on adoption of the MiniMed 780G system. The result supported the new product cycle part of the thesis.
Jun 2024The first view framed Medtronic as a broad medical device company with a strong pipeline but real competitive and pricing pressure. The key debate was whether new products could offset weak spots.
02 Business model

Devices, doctors, and long sales ties

Medtronic makes money by designing, making, and selling medical devices and related services. Hospitals, health systems, doctors, clinicians, and patients use its products for heart disease, spine and brain conditions, surgery, monitoring, and diabetes care.

The company sells through its own sales teams and through independent distributors around the world. This matters because many products need doctor training, hospital trust, and support after sale. A new device can take time to win use, but a trusted product can stay in use for years.

The business depends on research and development, patents, trademarks, trade secrets, and strong clinical evidence. It can break if a rival launches a better product, if hospitals push prices lower, if procedure volumes slow, or if a major business like Medical Surgical misses its targets.

03 Product portfolio

What Medtronic sells

Cash cow

Cardiac Rhythm and Heart Failure

This includes pacemakers, defibrillators, and ablation systems. It is part of the largest segment and helps anchor Medtronic's scale in heart care.

Steady

Structural Heart and Aortic

This group includes heart valves and stent grafts. It serves large, long-term markets tied to aging patients and heart disease.

Growth engine

Coronary and Peripheral Vascular

This includes stents, angioplasty balloons, and renal denervation systems. It benefits when new heart and blood vessel products gain share.

Steady

Cranial, Spinal, and Neuromodulation

These products include spinal implants, neurosurgery tools, robotic guidance, spinal cord stimulation, brain stimulation, and drug infusion systems. The portfolio gives Medtronic a broad position in neuroscience.

Option

Surgical and Endoscopy

This includes stapling, vessel sealing, and the Hugo robotic-assisted surgery system. Hugo is an upside option, but the segment still needs better growth and margin proof.

Steady

Acute Care and Monitoring

This group sells patient monitoring, oxygen, brain activity, and airway management products. It is less flashy than robotics, but it supports the Medical Surgical base.

Growth engine

Diabetes and MiniMed

This includes insulin pumps, continuous glucose monitoring systems, and smart insulin pens. Diabetes grew 13% in fiscal 2026, but it is now being separated through MiniMed.

04 Business segments

Fiscal 2026 revenue mix

Cardiovascular38%growing fast
Neuroscience28%modest
Medical Surgical24%modest
Diabetes9%growing fast

The mix is from the fiscal year ended April 24, 2026. Diabetes is no longer a reportable segment, but it still generated revenue and matters because Medtronic owns about 90% of MiniMed.

05 Risk factors

What could go wrong

MiniMed separation stalls

High impact · Medium odds

Medtronic has started separating Diabetes through the MiniMed IPO, but the job is not complete. It still owns about 90% of MiniMed, so investors remain tied to that business. A slow or tax-heavy exit could reduce the value the separation is meant to unlock.

We watchManagement's timeline, structure, tax comments, and sale plans for the remaining MiniMed stake.

Medical Surgical goodwill write-down

High impact · Medium odds

Medical Surgical has $20.0 billion of goodwill allocated to it. Goodwill is the extra value recorded after acquisitions, above the value of the assets bought. Its fair value was only about 12% above carrying value, so weak sales or margins could trigger a large accounting charge.

We watchMedical Surgical revenue growth, margin trend, and any update to the 12% fair value cushion.

Core product momentum fades

Medium impact · Medium odds

The current bull case needs new products to keep driving growth, especially in Cardiovascular and surgical robotics. If products like PulseSelect PFA or Hugo do not gain enough use, top-line growth could slow. That would make the stock harder to justify.

We watchCardiovascular growth, Hugo adoption comments, and product launch updates in quarterly filings.

Pricing and procedure pressure

Medium impact · Medium odds

Medtronic sells into markets where hospitals, governments, and rivals all push on price. Procedure volumes also matter because many devices are used during surgeries or interventions. Pressure from new therapies, hospital budgets, or country-level cost controls could weigh on sales.

We watchU.S. procedure trends, international growth, China pricing comments, and Medical Surgical order trends.
06 Quick answers

In one breath

What does Medtronic do?

Medtronic makes medical devices used in heart care, brain and spine care, surgery, monitoring, and diabetes treatment. It sells to hospitals, doctors, health systems, and patients in more than 150 countries.

Why is MiniMed important to Medtronic stock?

MiniMed is the diabetes business that Medtronic is separating. Diabetes grew 13% in fiscal 2026, and Medtronic still owns about 90% of MiniMed, so the timing and value of the remaining exit matter.

What is Medtronic's biggest risk right now?

The clearest accounting risk is Medical Surgical goodwill. The unit had only about a 12% cushion over carrying value, so weaker performance could lead to a material write-down.

Is Medtronic growing fast?

It is growing better than before, but not like a small high-growth company. Fiscal 2026 revenue rose 8%, with faster growth in Cardiovascular and Diabetes and slower growth in Neuroscience and Medical Surgical.