Finvest
MGM Casinos and Resorts · Gaming · Travel · Macau · Thesis updated July 12, 2026

Macau and digital offset a slow Strip

01 Running thesis

Better than the Strip looked

MGM is a split story. The Las Vegas Strip is still the biggest segment, but it is not growing much. Q1 2026 Strip revenue was nearly flat. At first glance, the 8% drop in Segment Adjusted EBITDAR looked like a clear margin warning.

The details make that quarter look less scary. Management tied the Las Vegas EBITDAR hit to $37 million of higher self-insurance costs and $31 million less in business interruption proceeds from the prior year. That means the core resort business may be steadier than the headline profit line showed.

The bull case rests on MGM China, MGM Digital, and buybacks. MGM China revenue grew 9% in Q1 2026. MGM Digital revenue grew 43%. MGM also repurchased about $90 million of stock during the quarter.

The bear case has not gone away. Domestic revenue growth is weak, Regional Operations had margin pressure, and MGM has large fixed rent payments under its lease structure. The next few quarters need to show that the insurance costs were not a new normal and that Las Vegas margins can stabilize.

Apr 2026Q1 2026 made the Las Vegas profit decline look less like core damage. Higher self-insurance costs and lower one-time proceeds explained much of the EBITDAR drop, while MGM China and MGM Digital kept growing.
Feb 2026Full-year 2025 kept the split story in place. Las Vegas revenue fell 4%, but MGM China grew 11% and BetMGM began sending cash distributions to MGM.
Oct 2025Q3 2025 showed a wider gap between segments. Las Vegas Strip revenue fell 7%, while MGM China grew 17%, and MGM dropped its pursuit of a full Empire City casino license.
Jul 2025Q2 2025 shifted the focus back to Macau strength against U.S. softness. MGM China revenue grew 9%, while Las Vegas Strip revenue declined 4%.
Apr 2025Q1 2025 mixed the story. Las Vegas Strip casino revenue improved, but MGM China revenue declined, making the thesis less dependent on one market.
Feb 2025The 2024 10-K confirmed Macau recovery but also showed weaker Las Vegas casino trends and more visible Osaka funding risk. Consolidated principal debt was $6.4 billion at year-end 2024.
02 Business model

Casinos, rooms, food, rent

MGM makes money when people gamble, book rooms, eat, drink, attend events, shop, and use meeting space at its resorts. Its Las Vegas properties also sell a large amount of non-gaming hospitality, such as hotel rooms, restaurants, entertainment, and conventions.

The company has four main public pieces: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, Regional Operations, MGM China, and MGM Digital. MGM China gives it exposure to Macau. MGM Digital includes online gaming assets such as LeoVegas, while MGM also owns 50% of BetMGM.

The weak point is fixed cost. Many domestic properties are run under triple-net leases, which means MGM pays large rent bills and also carries many property-level costs. If revenue stalls for too long, profit can fall faster than sales.

03 Product portfolio

What MGM sells

Cash cow

Las Vegas destination resorts

MGM sells casino play, rooms, restaurants, shows, shopping, and conventions on the Strip. This is the largest revenue base, but recent growth has been slow.

Steady

Regional casinos

These casinos serve local and drive-in customers outside Las Vegas. Q1 2026 revenue rose 2%, but profit was pressured by insurance costs and weather.

Growth engine

MGM China

MGM China runs Macau resorts and is a key growth source. Q1 2026 revenue rose 9%, while the EBITDAR dip was masked by a higher brand fee paid to MGM.

Growth engine

MGM Digital

This includes digital casino and sports betting exposure, helped by LeoVegas. Q1 2026 revenue grew 43%, and the segment is still scaling toward lasting profitability.

Option

BetMGM stake

MGM owns 50% of BetMGM, its U.S. online sports betting and iGaming venture. BetMGM contributed $7.4 million of profit from unconsolidated affiliates in Q1 2026.

Option

Osaka resort project

MGM is helping develop an integrated resort in Osaka, Japan. The project could add a new market, but it comes with a large funding commitment and completion risk.

04 Business segments

Q1 2026 revenue mix

Las Vegas Strip Resorts50%flat
Regional Operations21%modest
MGM China25%modest
MGM Digital4%growing fast

Shares use Q1 2026 reportable segment net revenues from the 10-Q and exclude Corporate and other. Las Vegas Strip Resorts was about half of reportable revenue, so domestic stagnation still matters.

05 Risk factors

What could break the case

Las Vegas stays flat

High impact · Medium odds

Las Vegas Strip Resorts had nearly flat revenue in Q1 2026 after weak full-year 2025 trends. If visitor demand, table games volume, rooms, or food and beverage stay soft, MGM may not get enough operating leverage from its largest segment.

We watchLas Vegas Strip revenue growth, table games drop, hotel occupancy, ADR, and Segment Adjusted EBITDAR margin.

Insurance costs become recurring

Medium impact · Medium odds

Q1 2026 profit was hurt by higher self-insurance costs, including $37 million in Las Vegas and pressure in Regional Operations. The bull case assumes this was not a lasting cost reset. If these costs repeat, the margin recovery may not arrive.

We watchManagement comments on self-insurance reserves and the dollar amount of insurance expense in each quarter.

Lease fixed costs squeeze cash flow

High impact · Medium odds

MGM pays large fixed rent bills on many domestic properties. That structure can work when resorts grow, but it hurts when revenue is flat. The April 2026 MGM Northfield Park sale reduced annual cash rent by $53 million, but the lease model remains a core risk.

We watchDomestic EBITDAR after rent, rent coverage, and any new lease amendments.

Macau growth slows or rules change

High impact · Medium odds

MGM China is one of the main reasons the thesis is still balanced. Q1 2026 revenue grew 9%, and reported profit was held back by a higher brand fee. A slowdown in Macau gaming demand or a regulatory change would weaken a key growth engine.

We watchMGM China revenue growth, Macau casino demand, and updates from Macau regulators.

Big projects strain the balance sheet

High impact · Medium odds

MGM had $6.4 billion of consolidated principal debt at the end of 2024. The Osaka project includes an estimated $1.7 billion commitment over five years, plus an uncapped completion guarantee. If costs rise or returns disappoint, leverage and liquidity could come under pressure.

We watchOsaka construction updates, project budget changes, debt levels, and free cash flow.
06 Quick answers

In one breath

Is MGM mainly a Las Vegas company?

Las Vegas is still the largest piece of MGM by reportable segment revenue. But MGM China and MGM Digital are now the main growth pieces, which makes the company less tied to only the Strip.

Why did MGM's Las Vegas profit fall in Q1 2026?

The drop looked worse than the operating story. MGM said the Las Vegas EBITDAR decline was mainly tied to $37 million of higher self-insurance expense and $31 million less in business interruption proceeds than last year.

What is BetMGM's role for MGM?

MGM owns 50% of BetMGM, its U.S. online betting and iGaming venture. BetMGM contributed $7.4 million of profit from unconsolidated affiliates in Q1 2026, but the timing and size of future cash distributions remain an open question.

What should investors watch next?

Watch Las Vegas margins, MGM China revenue growth, and MGM Digital's path to profitability. Also watch how MGM uses cash after the $546 million sale of MGM Northfield Park operations.