MMYT Online Travel · India · Travel · OTA · Thesis updated July 17, 2026

India travel demand is beating air shortages

MakeMyTrip earns fees and commissions when travelers book flights, hotels, packages, buses, rail, cabs, and add-ons.
Hotels and Packages is the largest profit pool by adjusted margin, with about 43% of fiscal 2025 segment adjusted margin.
The current bull case is that hotels up 15.2% and bus volumes up 27.6% are offsetting weak air supply.
Myra, its GenAI trip assistant, has scaled to over 80,000 daily conversations and may help conversion and support costs.
The bear case is that air capacity limits, West Asia conflict, high crude, and a weak rupee keep a lid on higher-value trips.

01 Running thesis

Trips are rising, planes are scarce

MakeMyTrip is tied to a simple India consumer trend: more people are taking more trips, and more of those trips are booked online. The company has a lifetime transacted user base of 82 million across its three core brands, which gives it many chances to sell flights, rooms, buses, packages, and add-ons to the same customer.

The latest thesis leans positive, but not carefree. Hotels and Packages grew volumes 15.2% in Q4 fiscal 2026, and bus ticketing volumes grew 27.6%. Those lines are helping MakeMyTrip keep growing even when domestic air supply is tight and airfares are high.

The pressure point is air travel. Domestic aircraft supply has been hurt by delivery delays and pilot flight duty time limitation rules. International outbound travel, often a richer mix for the company, has also been hit by the West Asia conflict, with Q4 passenger traffic down 6% year over year.

Two catalysts could change the setup. One is a recovery in air capacity, especially for international routes. The other is management's evaluation of a potential listing of the India business, where the timing and structure are still open questions.

May 2026→Q4 fiscal 2026 showed the tradeoff clearly: hotels grew 15.2% and bus volumes grew 27.6%, while West Asia conflict hurt international outbound travel. Myra scaled to over 80,000 daily conversations, and Flamingo Transworld plus Atlys expanded the travel add-on set.

Jan 2026→Q3 fiscal 2026 answered part of the hotel demand question after a GST cut helped budget and mid-tier rooms. Air remained the main bottleneck, with December daily departures down 5% year over year after new pilot duty rules.

Oct 2025▲Q2 fiscal 2026 showed international travel offsetting domestic air weakness, with international revenue contribution at 28%. Myra reached over 25,000 daily conversations, and myBiz active customers rose above 75,500.

Jul 2025→Q1 fiscal 2026 showed that the broad platform could handle local shocks in India. International travel reached about 27% of overall revenue and helped offset weaker domestic leisure demand.

Jun 2025→The fiscal 2025 20-F confirmed the core model across air, hotels and packages, and bus ticketing. It also gave the fiscal 2025 adjusted margin mix used for the segment section.

May 2025▲Q4 fiscal 2025 showed a stronger international mix, with international business at 25% of overall revenue. Management also added tours and attractions and acquired Happay to strengthen corporate travel.

Oct 2024▲Q2 fiscal 2025 added evidence that international air and hotels were growing faster than domestic air. The company launched an ICICI Bank co-branded credit card and introduced Myra.

Jul 2024→The initial thesis framed MakeMyTrip as a diversified online travel agency with air, accommodations, and ground transport. Domestic air capacity was the main near-term risk from the start.

02 Business model

Small fees on big bookings

MakeMyTrip is an online travel agency. That means it does not usually own the plane, hotel, or bus seat. It brings buyers to travel suppliers, then earns a fee, commission, convenience fee, supplier incentive, or package margin.

Air ticketing has a lower take rate, about 6.2%. Hotels and Packages is richer, with take rates around 18%, because hotel stays and holiday packages involve more choice, service, and bundling. This is why a shift toward accommodations and packages matters more than the same dollar of flight bookings.

The model can scale well when demand is strong. Customer acquisition costs are around 5% of gross bookings, and adjusted operating profit margins remain stable around 1.82%. If repeat use rises through loyalty programs, corporate accounts, and Myra, each added booking can become more profitable.

The weak spot is supply and sentiment. If airlines cannot add seats, if fares stay too high, or if conflict makes travelers pause international trips, MakeMyTrip can still serve buses and hotels, but the best mix becomes harder to reach.

03 Product portfolio

One app for most trip needs

Cash cow

Air Ticketing

Domestic and international flights bring frequent customer visits and large booking volume. The take rate is lower than hotels, and current capacity shortages make this line harder to grow near term.

Growth engine

Hotels and Packages

This includes hotels, homestays, holiday packages, and domestic and outbound travel bundles. It carries higher take rates around 18% and grew volumes 15.2% in Q4 fiscal 2026.

Growth engine

Bus, Rail, and Intercity Cabs

Ground transport gives customers a cheaper option when flights are expensive or scarce. Bus ticketing volumes rose 27.6% year over year in Q4 fiscal 2026.

Growth engine

Corporate Travel

myBiz serves over 76,800 active corporate customers, while Quest2Travel serves 548 large corporates. Happay adds expense management, which can make MakeMyTrip part of a company's travel workflow.

Option

Myra GenAI Assistant

Myra helps with trip planning and booking questions. It has scaled from over 25,000 daily conversations to over 80,000, which could lift conversion and reduce service effort.

Steady

Loyalty, Visa, and Packages Add-ons

MMT Black, goTribe, Flamingo Transworld, Atlys, tours, attractions, insurance, foreign exchange, and visa products help MakeMyTrip sell more around each trip. These are smaller pieces, but they widen the wallet share.

04 Business segments

Hotels now lead the mix

Hotels and Packages43%growing fast

Air Ticketing37%modest

Bus Ticketing13%growing fast

Others7%growing fast

Segment shares use fiscal 2025 adjusted margin from the 20-F, not IFRS revenue, because management uses adjusted margin to compare lines with different net and gross accounting. Hotels and Packages is the largest segment, but air still drives many customer visits.

05 Risk factors

What could break the trip

Domestic air seat shortage

High impact · High odds

Aircraft delivery delays and pilot flight duty time limitation rules have reduced expected flight growth. In Q3 fiscal 2026, December daily departures fell 5% year over year instead of rising as expected. Fewer seats can mean fewer bookings and higher fares that push travelers away.

We watchTrack Indian domestic daily departures, airline capacity additions, and whether FDTL rules keep limiting schedules.

International travel shock

High impact · Medium odds

The West Asia conflict has hurt westbound international travel. Q4 passenger traffic declined 6% year over year, and international outbound travel can carry attractive economics. If conflict lasts, MakeMyTrip may lose mix benefits even if domestic hotels and buses grow.

We watchTrack westbound passenger traffic, international air capacity, and management comments on outbound booking recovery.

Fuel and currency squeeze

Medium impact · Medium odds

Elevated crude oil prices can keep airfares high. A depreciating rupee can also make overseas trips more expensive for Indian travelers. Together, they can weaken discretionary travel demand, especially for international holidays.

We watchTrack crude prices, INR exchange rates, and international airfare trends.

Weather and local disruption

Medium impact · Medium odds

Travel demand can fall fast after extreme weather, safety incidents, or regional unrest. Prior quarters showed demand weakness after heavy rainfall, the Pahalgam incident, and an aircraft crash. MakeMyTrip has a broad product set, but sudden shocks can still hurt leisure bookings.

We watchTrack cancellations, destination search trends, and management comments after major weather or safety events.

AI fails to improve economics

Medium impact · Low odds

Myra has scaled quickly, but usage alone does not prove profit impact. The investment case assumes better conversion, better planning help, and lower support friction. If users chat but do not book more, the benefit may be smaller than hoped.

We watchTrack Myra conversation quality, booking conversion, customer service cost ratios, and repeat purchase behavior.

06 Quick answers

In one breath

How does MakeMyTrip make money?

It earns commissions, fees, supplier incentives, and package margins when customers book travel. Air ticketing has a lower take rate around 6.2%, while Hotels and Packages is higher at around 18%.

Why are buses and hotels so important for MMYT now?

They help offset weak air supply and high fares. In Q4 fiscal 2026, Hotels and Packages volumes grew 15.2%, while bus ticketing volumes grew 27.6%.

What is the biggest risk for MakeMyTrip stock?

The biggest operating risk is that air capacity stays tight while international travel remains weak from conflict, fuel prices, and currency pressure. That would limit growth in some of the company's more valuable travel categories.

What could make the thesis better?

A recovery in domestic and international flight capacity would help. Continued corporate travel growth and clearer details on a possible India business listing could also improve investor confidence.