Finvest
MTCH Internet Services · Dating apps · Consumer internet · Subscription revenue · Thesis updated June 14, 2026

Hinge grows while Tinder loses payers

01 Running thesis

Hinge carries the story

Match Group is a portfolio of dating apps, but the current thesis comes down to two brands. Hinge is growing fast. Tinder, the biggest business, is losing paying users. That makes the company neither a clean growth story nor a broken one.

The bull case is simple. Hinge revenue grew 28% in Q1 2026, with Payers up 15% and revenue per payer, or RPP, up 11%. That means Hinge is adding more paying users and getting more revenue from each one. If that keeps working as Hinge expands in Europe and other markets, Match can grow even while older brands fade.

The bear case starts with Tinder. Tinder Direct Revenue grew 2% in Q1 2026, but that came from a 7% rise in RPP while Payers fell 5%. Price increases can help for a while, but they can also push users away if the product does not feel worth it.

The Azar problem is less scary than it looked in February. Apple removed Azar from the App Store on February 22, 2026, and it came back on April 6, 2026. Still, the gap hurt MG Asia revenue and led to a $25.2 million impairment charge, so the next test is whether Azar recovers its old run rate.

May 2026Q1 2026 confirmed the main split: Hinge grew 28%, while Tinder Payers fell 5%. Azar was reinstated to Apple's App Store on April 6, 2026, reducing one major overhang but not erasing the Q1 damage.
Feb 2026The 2025 10-K added a serious new platform risk after Apple removed Azar from the App Store. Azar produced $155.8 million of Direct Revenue in 2025, with 76% through Apple's App Store.
Nov 2025Q3 2025 showed Tinder Payers down 7% again, while Hinge kept growing fast. A $60.5 million class-wide settlement tied to Tinder pricing practices added legal risk.
Aug 2025Q2 2025 kept the same story in place. Hinge revenue grew 25%, but Tinder Payers fell 7% and E&E Payers fell 15%.
May 2025Q1 2025 made the thesis more polarized. Hinge revenue rose 23%, but Tinder revenue fell 7% and its Payers fell 6%.
Feb 2025Full-year 2024 results showed Hinge revenue up 39%, strengthening the bull case. The offset was a 7% full-year decline in Tinder Payers.
Nov 2024Match moved to four brand-based operating segments: Tinder, Hinge, MG Asia, and Evergreen & Emerging. The new view made the Hinge strength and Tinder pressure easier to see.
Aug 2024The initial thesis framed Match as a portfolio rotation story. Hinge was growing quickly, while Tinder showed early payer pressure and relied more on pricing.
02 Business model

Free apps, paid upgrades

Match makes most of its money from Direct Revenue. That means money paid by users, not advertisers. A user can join for free, then pay for a subscription or one-time features that improve their odds of matching.

The model can be strong when an app has a large active user base. More users make the app more useful, which can attract even more users. That network effect is why Tinder and Hinge matter so much.

The weak spot is churn. If fewer people pay, Match can raise prices to defend revenue, but that does not fix a shrinking user base. In Q1 2026, both Tinder and Evergreen & Emerging had higher RPP but fewer Payers.

Match also depends on Apple and Google to distribute its apps. Azar showed why that matters. A rule change or app review decision can quickly block downloads and hurt revenue.

03 Product portfolio

A dating app portfolio

Cash cow

Tinder

Tinder is the largest revenue contributor. It still has pricing power, but Q1 2026 Payers fell 5%, so user stabilization is the key watch item.

Growth engine

Hinge

Hinge is the main growth driver. Q1 2026 revenue grew 28%, helped by more Payers and higher RPP.

Steady

Match, Meetic, OkCupid, and Plenty Of Fish

These are older brands inside Evergreen & Emerging. The group can still produce revenue, but Q1 2026 E&E Payers fell 16%.

Option

Azar

Azar is part of MG Asia. It was removed from Apple's App Store on February 22, 2026, then reinstated on April 6, 2026.

Steady

Pairs

Pairs helps Match serve Asian dating markets. It sits in a segment that was hurt by the temporary Azar disruption in Q1 2026.

Option

BLK

BLK is one of Match's focused dating brands. These smaller brands help the company serve different communities and relationship goals.

04 Business segments

Q1 revenue mix

Tinder54%modest
Hinge23%growing fast
Evergreen & Emerging16%declining
Match Group Asia7%declining

Segment shares use Q1 2026 Direct Revenue: Tinder $455M, Hinge $194M, Evergreen & Emerging $139M, and MG Asia $60M. Tinder is still the largest piece, so Hinge must grow a lot to move the whole company.

05 Risk factors

What could break

Tinder payer decline

High impact · High odds

Tinder is the largest revenue contributor, but its Q1 2026 Payers fell 5%. Revenue still grew because RPP rose 7%, but price cannot carry the brand forever if fewer users pay.

We watchQuarterly Tinder Payers, especially any sign that the decline slows or turns positive.

Hinge growth slowdown

High impact · Medium odds

Hinge is carrying the bull case. Q1 2026 revenue grew 28%, but Match now relies heavily on that pace to offset weakness elsewhere. If Hinge growth cools before margins expand, the overall growth score may stay weak.

We watchHinge revenue growth, Hinge Payer growth, and signs of operating leverage as it expands internationally.

Pricing pushes users away

Medium impact · Medium odds

Match is leaning on higher RPP at Tinder and Evergreen & Emerging. In Q1 2026, E&E RPP rose 11%, but Payers fell 16%. If users see less value, price hikes could speed up churn.

We watchRPP growth compared with Payer declines at Tinder and E&E.

App store platform risk

High impact · Medium odds

Apple removed Azar from the App Store on February 22, 2026, after a guideline update. The app returned on April 6, 2026, but the disruption hurt MG Asia and led to a $25.2 million impairment charge.

We watchMG Asia Direct Revenue in Q2 and Q3 2026, plus any new Apple or Google app review actions.

Legal and data trust issues

Medium impact · Medium odds

Dating apps handle sensitive personal data, so trust matters. Match has disclosed a January 2026 cybersecurity incident, a $14.0 million preliminary FTC settlement, and a $60.5 million class-wide settlement tied to Tinder pricing practices.

We watchNew regulatory filings, settlement approvals, cybersecurity updates, and user trust metrics.
06 Quick answers

In one breath

How does Match Group make money?

Most revenue comes from users who pay for subscriptions or add-on features inside dating apps. The company also earns some indirect revenue, mainly from advertising.

Is Hinge bigger than Tinder?

No. Tinder is still much larger by Direct Revenue. In Q1 2026, Tinder Direct Revenue was $455M, while Hinge was $194M.

Why does Tinder payer decline matter?

Payers are users who spend money. If Tinder keeps losing Payers, Match may need more price increases just to hold revenue steady, and that can become harder over time.

What happened to Azar?

Apple removed Azar from the App Store on February 22, 2026, after a guideline update. Match changed the app and Apple reinstated a new version on April 6, 2026.