NMR Financial Services · Japan · Wealth management · Investment banking · Thesis updated July 17, 2026

Nomura's safer mix is finally showing up

Nomura earned ¥2,167.7 billion of net revenue in the year ended March 31, 2026, up 14.5%.
Wealth Management had its best year since the division was created, with recurring revenue cost coverage at 72%.
Investment Management AUM reached ¥136.9 trillion after the Macquarie public asset management deal closed.
Wholesale income before taxes hit an all-time high, but this is still the business most exposed to market shocks.
Common equity Tier 1, a core bank capital ratio, was 12.86% at March 31, 2026, inside Nomura's 11% to 14% target range.

01 Running thesis

Japan's investing shift is paying off

Nomura is trying to become less of a trading house and more of a recurring-fee money manager. That shift is working better than it has in years. Wealth Management had its best performance since the division was set up, and Investment Management assets under management reached ¥136.9 trillion after the Macquarie public asset management acquisition.

The stronger mix is showing up in group results. Nomura posted 10.1% return on equity for the year ended March 31, 2026, reaching its 8% to 10% management goal ahead of plan. Wholesale also had all-time high income before taxes, helped by Global Markets and Investment Banking.

The bear case is that Nomura has not escaped market cycles. Wholesale is still the largest revenue driver, and it can swing fast when rates, currencies, credit spreads, or deal markets move against the firm. The sharp rise in Japan's 10-year government bond yield to 2.8% in May 2026 is the clearest near-term test.

The next proof points are simple: keep AUM inflows coming after Macquarie, trade Japan bond volatility without large losses, and protect capital while risk-weighted assets grow. A separate question is how management frames the next return goal now that the old one has been reached early.

Jun 2026▲The FY2026 20-F confirmed record or all-time high progress across Wealth Management, Investment Management, and Wholesale. It also raised the near-term risk bar, with U.S. tariff threats, Middle East instability, and the 10-year JGB yield reaching 2.8% in May 2026.

Apr 2026▲Q4 results showed 10.1% ROE and record strength in Wealth Management and Wholesale. CET1 was 12.9%, so capital stayed acceptable but not loose.

Jan 2026→Nomura closed the Macquarie public asset management acquisition on December 1, 2025, lifting Investment Management revenue to an all-time high. Laser Digital losses and EMEA weakness kept the risk view balanced.

Oct 2025→Wholesale Equities reached a record high, adding to the bull case. Phishing losses and a lower CET1 ratio kept the update from being clearly positive.

Jul 2025▼Q1 showed the real cost of phishing compensation and Laser Digital market losses. It also showed that risk-weighted asset growth was starting to pressure capital buffers.

Jun 2025→The FY2025 filing formalized the new Banking Division and showed better Wholesale operating leverage. New cyber and JGB regulatory issues kept the risk list longer.

Apr 2025▲Nomura announced the Macquarie public asset management deal and created a Banking Division. Both moves strengthened the plan to build more stable revenue.

Feb 2025▲Q3 showed stronger group profitability, a lower Wholesale cost-to-income ratio, and international business near 40% of pretax income. Laser Digital also began contributing profits.

02 Business model

Fees, advice, trading, and banking

Nomura makes money in four main ways. It advises and sells investment products to individuals in Wealth Management. It manages funds and other assets in Investment Management. It trades securities and advises companies in Wholesale. It also runs banking and trust banking functions through the Banking Division.

The best part of the model is the shift toward steadier fees. Recurring revenue means fees that can repeat, such as management fees on funds or discretionary accounts. These are less jumpy than trading gains, and they help cover the fixed cost of branches, bankers, traders, systems, and compliance.

The harder part is that Nomura still has a large trading and investment banking engine. That business can earn a lot when clients hedge, rebalance, issue stock, borrow, or buy companies. It can also hurt results when markets freeze, rates move too fast, or clients delay deals.

03 Product portfolio

What Nomura sells

Growth engine

Wealth Management

This includes stocks, investment trusts, discretionary accounts, insurance, and workplace services. It is the core way Nomura benefits from Japanese households moving money from savings into investments.

Growth engine

Investment Management

Nomura runs public funds, balanced funds, global equity funds, defined contribution funds, and private or alternative assets. The Macquarie acquisition added scale in U.S. and European public asset management.

Cash cow

Wholesale Global Markets

This business trades fixed income, equities, securitized products, and other market products for clients. It can be very profitable, but it is also the most sensitive to rates and market stress.

Steady

Wholesale Investment Banking

Nomura advises on mergers and acquisitions, underwriting, financing, and equity solutions. Activity depends on client confidence and market windows.

Steady

Banking Division

This division uses banking and trust functions, including securities-backed loans, investment trust administration, and fund services. It is small today but adds another stable revenue source.

Option

Laser Digital

Laser Digital is Nomura's digital asset subsidiary. It has shown it can contribute profits, but recent market moves also showed that risk controls matter.

04 Business segments

Wholesale is still the biggest piece

Wholesale59%modest

Wealth Management25%modest

Investment Management13%growing fast

Banking3%modest

The mix uses fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 net revenue for Nomura's four operating divisions. Unallocated corporate and other items are excluded, so the table shows the operating business mix rather than total company revenue.

05 Risk factors

What could break the thesis

Japan bond volatility hits trading books

High impact · Medium odds

Japan's 10-year government bond yield reached 2.8% on May 18, 2026 after rate hikes, political shifts, and Middle East stress. Fast bond moves can create trading gains, but they can also create paper losses on bonds and hedges. Nomura's next fixed income result will show whether it managed the move well.

We watchJapan 10-year government bond yield and Nomura's next Fixed Income revenue.

Wholesale costs stay too high

High impact · Medium odds

Wholesale earned an all-time high income before taxes, but it remains a high-cost business. The Wholesale cost-to-income ratio was 83% for the year ended March 31, 2026. If revenue cools while pay, systems, and risk costs stay high, profit can fall quickly.

We watchWholesale cost-to-income ratio and quarterly Global Markets net revenue.

Capital buffer gets squeezed

Medium impact · Medium odds

Common equity Tier 1 fell from 14.52% at March 31, 2025 to 12.86% at March 31, 2026. That is still inside Nomura's 11% to 14% target range, but the cushion is thinner. More risk-weighted asset growth could limit buybacks, growth investment, or trading capacity.

We watchCommon equity Tier 1 ratio, total risk-weighted assets, and capital return plans.

Macquarie integration disappoints

Medium impact · Medium odds

The Macquarie public asset management acquisition lifted AUM, but the acquired business also had outflows during the fiscal year. Nomura still reported overall Investment Management net inflows of ¥0.4 trillion. The risk is that added scale does not turn into lasting fee growth if clients keep pulling money from active funds.

We watchInvestment Management AUM, net inflows, and margins in the acquired U.S. and European businesses.

Operational and regulatory trust slips

Medium impact · Low odds

Retail phishing scams caused profit drag earlier in fiscal 2026, though management later said the Q3 impact was negligible after passkey rollout. Nomura also faced a suspension of JGB primary dealer entitlements after a penalty tied to past JGB futures transactions. These issues matter because trust is central to wealth management and government bond trading.

We watchFraud compensation, passkey adoption, SESC updates, and JGB primary dealer status.

06 Quick answers

In one breath

What does Nomura Holdings do?

Nomura is a Japanese financial services group. It helps individuals invest, manages assets, trades securities for clients, advises companies, and runs banking and trust services.

Why does Japan's savings to investment shift matter for Nomura?

Many Japanese households have kept large savings balances in cash or deposits. If more of that money moves into funds, advisory accounts, and securities, Nomura can earn more recurring fees.

Is Nomura safer now that it has more asset management revenue?

It is less dependent on trading than it used to be, but not free from market risk. Wholesale is still the largest operating revenue segment, so rate shocks, currency moves, and weak deal markets can still move results.