PAC Airport operators · Mexico · Infrastructure · Air travel · Thesis updated July 19, 2026

Commercial gains cushion a traffic slump

GAP owns major airport concessions, including Guadalajara, Los Cabos, Tijuana, and Puerto Vallarta.
Non-aeronautical revenue rose 23.9% in Q2 2026, helped by CBX and stronger directly run businesses.
Passenger traffic is still under pressure, with 2026 guidance cut to a range of -3% to flat growth.
Puerto Vallarta is the biggest warning sign, after international passengers fell 27% in Q2 2026.
The approved 2025-2029 investment plan commits MXN 43.2 billion to expand the 12 Mexican airports.

01 Running thesis

Shops, cargo, and CBX carry the story

The bull case is that GAP is becoming less tied to simple passenger counts. The company still earns regulated fees when people fly, but the faster growth is coming from shops, VIP lounges, car rentals, hotels, cargo, bonded warehouses, and the Cross Border Xpress, known as CBX. CBX began to be consolidated in May 2026 and generated MXN 168 million in its first two months.

That shift matters because traffic is weak. Management now expects 2026 passenger traffic to land between -3% and flat growth. The main headwinds are Pratt & Whitney engine inspections that limit Volaris and Viva Aerobus capacity, higher fuel costs pushing up fares, Jamaica still recovering from Hurricane Melissa, and security concerns hurting Puerto Vallarta.

The long-term asset base looks stronger than the near-term traffic tape. The 2025-2029 Master Development Plan was approved with MXN 43.2 billion of committed capital spending, giving GAP a funded path to add capacity at its 12 Mexican airports. The planned internalization of AMP technical assistance functions could also remove a fee drag and help margins.

The key debate is timing. Commercial execution is strong right now, but investors still need passengers to recover before the full airport model works again. FIBRA GAP, expected in Q3 2026, and CBX cost savings expected in Q4 are the next catalysts to watch.

Jul 2026→CBX consolidation and 23.9% non-aeronautical revenue growth strengthened the bull case. The offset was weaker 2026 traffic guidance of -3% to flat and a 27% international passenger drop at Puerto Vallarta.

Apr 2026▼Q1 traffic fell 5.5% after Hurricane Melissa effects and a Jalisco security incident. Cargo and bonded warehouses still looked strong, helped by electronics production moving toward Guadalajara.

Apr 2026▲The 2025 Form 20-F added the pending AMP business combination and CBX consolidation to the story. It also confirmed Hurricane Melissa damage at Montego Bay as a real operating risk.

Oct 2025→Pratt & Whitney engine limits for Volaris and Viva Aerobus were pushed toward 2027. Cargo still helped directly operated business lines, and Los Cabos gained a direct Panama connection.

Jul 2025→Directly operated businesses rose 113%, helped by cargo and bonded warehouses, while the Guadalajara hotel ran near 80% occupancy. New U.S. migration and slot risks made the traffic outlook less clean.

Apr 2025▲The 2024 Form 20-F confirmed the revenue mix shift, with aeronautical services falling to 56.9% of total revenue. That supported the view that commercial revenue is becoming more important.

Oct 2024▲The 2025-2029 Master Development Plan was approved with MXN 43.2 billion of committed capital spending. GWTC cargo margins also came in above the prior level discussed by management.

Jul 2024→The initial view balanced traffic pressure from A320neo and A321neo engine inspections against commercial growth, GWTC cargo consolidation, and the new second runway at Guadalajara.

02 Business model

Regulated runways, unregulated extras

GAP makes money in two main ways. Aeronautical revenue comes from airlines and passengers using the airports. These fees are regulated through maximum passenger tariffs, so GAP cannot simply raise prices whenever it wants.

Non-aeronautical revenue is the higher-flex part of the model. It includes retail space, food and beverage, car rentals, VIP lounges, hotels, cargo, bonded warehouses, and CBX. This side is growing faster and helped non-aeronautical revenue rise 23.9% in Q2 2026.

The model breaks when airlines cannot add seats or travelers decide not to fly. That is the current problem. Engine inspections, higher airfares, security warnings, and hurricane damage are all reducing traffic at parts of the network.

Capital spending is also large by design. Airports need runways, terminals, gates, and safety systems before they can grow. The approved 2025-2029 plan commits MXN 43.2 billion, which supports long-term capacity but also keeps cash tied to construction.

03 Product portfolio

What GAP actually runs

Cash cow

Core Mexican airports

Guadalajara, Los Cabos, Tijuana, and Puerto Vallarta are the backbone of the company. They serve business travel, leisure routes, and cross-border travel.

Steady

Aeronautical services

This is the regulated airport toll booth. GAP earns from passenger and airline activity, but volumes and tariff caps limit the near-term upside.

Growth engine

Commercial services

Retail, food and beverage, car rentals, VIP lounges, and hotels let GAP earn more from each traveler. This is the main reason the company can protect profits during weak traffic periods.

Growth engine

CBX

Cross Border Xpress links Tijuana Airport with the United States. GAP began consolidating it in May 2026, and it is now a major driver of non-aeronautical growth.

Growth engine

GWTC cargo and bonded warehouses

The cargo business is benefiting from electronics nearshoring around Guadalajara. Management has pointed to production shifting from Asia to the Guadalajara area.

Option

Caribbean airports

Montego Bay gives GAP exposure outside Mexico, but Hurricane Melissa damaged infrastructure in 2025. Management does not expect a full recovery there in 2026.

04 Business segments

The mix is shifting

Aeronautical services57%declining

Non-aeronautical services43%growing fast

Fiscal 2024 mix comes from the 2024 Form 20-F, which said aeronautical services were 56.9% of total revenue. Non-aeronautical revenue is the remaining mix and is rising faster in 2026.

05 Risk factors

What could go wrong

Airline capacity stays grounded

High impact · High odds

Volaris and Viva Aerobus are key airline partners, and their fleets are still affected by Pratt & Whitney engine inspections. Management says full fleet recovery is expected by 2027. If seats do not come back on time, GAP cannot fully recover passenger traffic.

We watchMonthly passenger traffic and airline updates on grounded A320neo and A321neo aircraft.

Security worries hurt beach travel

High impact · Medium odds

Security concerns and U.S. travel advisories have already hit Puerto Vallarta. International passengers there fell 27% in Q2 2026. If travelers keep avoiding the destination, commercial growth elsewhere may not fully offset the loss.

We watchInternational passenger growth at Puerto Vallarta and any new U.S. travel advisory language.

Fuel and fares weaken demand

Medium impact · High odds

Higher jet fuel costs can push airlines to raise fares. That hurts price-sensitive domestic travelers first. Management included higher fuel costs and fares when it cut 2026 traffic guidance to -3% to flat.

We watchMexican domestic passenger trends, airline fare commentary, and jet fuel price direction.

Jamaica recovery takes longer

Medium impact · Medium odds

Hurricane Melissa damaged Montego Bay Airport in 2025. Management does not assume Puerto Vallarta or Montego Bay fully recover during 2026. More delays would hold back the Caribbean part of the portfolio.

We watchMontego Bay passenger traffic, terminal repair updates, and airline schedule additions.

U.S. policy blocks cross-border growth

Medium impact · Medium odds

GAP has exposure to Visiting Friends and Relatives travel, which management estimates at about 38% of international traffic. U.S. migration enforcement can discourage that travel. Separate U.S. Department of Transportation claims against Mexico could also make new U.S. slots harder for Mexican carriers.

We watchU.S. migration enforcement headlines, VFR route demand, and DOT decisions on Mexican carrier slot authorizations.

06 Quick answers

In one breath

What does Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico do?

GAP operates airport concessions in Mexico and the Caribbean. It earns from regulated airport fees and from commercial services such as shops, lounges, hotels, cargo, and CBX.

Why is PAC traffic weak in 2026?

Management cut 2026 traffic guidance to -3% to flat growth. The main causes are grounded aircraft at partner airlines, higher fuel costs and fares, security concerns in Puerto Vallarta, and a slow recovery in Jamaica after Hurricane Melissa.

Why does CBX matter for PAC?

CBX adds a cross-border travel business tied to Tijuana Airport. GAP began consolidating it in May 2026, and it helped non-aeronautical revenue grow 23.9% in Q2 2026.

What is FIBRA GAP?

FIBRA GAP is a planned vehicle expected in Q3 2026. Its goal is to subscribe a minority equity interest in the 12 Mexican airport concession areas.