Finvest
RTX Aerospace and defense · Large cap · Defense · Aftermarket · Thesis updated June 11, 2026

Defense momentum meets engine repair risk

01 Running thesis

Raytheon lifts the story

RTX is in a better spot than it was a few quarters ago. The defense side is gaining speed, and the commercial aerospace aftermarket is still helping. In Q1 2026, adjusted sales were $22.1 billion, up 10% organically, and backlog rose to a record $271 billion.

The bull case starts with Raytheon. Management now expects Raytheon sales to grow at a high single digit rate in 2026. Five planned framework agreements for munitions like Tomahawk, AMRAAM, and the Standard Missile family could give suppliers a clearer demand signal for years.

The bear case is not about demand. It is about delivery. Pratt & Whitney still has the GTF powder metal problem, and RTX still expects about a $0.7 billion 2026 cash impact tied to that matter. The good news is that management said PW1100 aircraft on ground were down about 15% from year-end 2025, helped by a 23% year-over-year increase in MRO output.

The score is balanced because the setup is balanced. RTX has real demand, a huge backlog, and better defense momentum. It also has hard operating work ahead, from fixing engines to getting rocket motors, microelectronics, and other parts through the supply chain.

Apr 2026Q1 2026 strengthened the thesis. RTX posted 10% organic sales growth, backlog reached $271 billion, and management raised the Raytheon outlook after strong defense demand.
Apr 2026The GTF risk looked more controlled, but not gone. Management said PW1100 aircraft on ground were down about 15% from year-end 2025, helped by 23% growth in MRO output.
Feb 2026The 2025 Form 10-K confirmed the core setup: record backlog on one side and GTF execution risk on the other. No new material risk changed the thesis.
Jan 2026RTX ended 2025 with $88.6 billion of sales, $7.9 billion of free cash flow, and $268 billion of backlog. Management also framed a roughly $700 million 2026 cash outflow for the GTF powder metal matter.
Oct 2025Q3 2025 showed broad growth and a larger backlog of $251 billion. Commercial aftermarket strength and better Raytheon visibility supported the bull case.
Jul 2025RTX raised its 2025 sales outlook but cut adjusted EPS guidance due to tariff costs. Backlog still rose to $236 billion, keeping demand strong while cost risk stayed visible.
02 Business model

Long machines, long service tails

RTX makes complex aerospace and defense hardware. That includes aircraft systems, jet engines, radars, missiles, and missile defense equipment. These products can take years to design, qualify, and build.

The company earns money in two main ways. First, it sells original equipment, such as aircraft parts, engines, and defense systems. Second, it sells service, spare parts, and maintenance for equipment already in use. That installed base is important because an aircraft engine or defense system can need support for decades.

Commercial aerospace sales depend on airlines, aircraft production, and flying activity. Defense sales depend on government budgets, contract awards, export approvals, and program execution. In Q1 2026, RTX reported $15.8 billion of product sales and $6.3 billion of service sales.

This model can be powerful, but it can also be unforgiving. A defect in an engine part can ground aircraft and pull cash out of the business. A defense production ramp can stall if suppliers cannot raise output fast enough.

03 Product portfolio

What RTX sells

Steady

Collins Aerospace systems

Collins sells avionics, aerostructures, interiors, and other systems for commercial and military aircraft. In Q1 2026, Collins grew organically as commercial OEM, commercial aftermarket, and defense sales all rose.

Steady

Pratt & Whitney engines

Pratt & Whitney designs and services aircraft engines for commercial and military users. The GTF engine family is central to the story, both as a long-term installed base and as the source of the powder metal issue.

Cash cow

Commercial engine aftermarket

Engine service is a key profit pool because engines need inspections, parts, and repair over many years. Pratt & Whitney commercial aftermarket sales rose 19% in Q1 2026.

Growth engine

Raytheon munitions

Raytheon makes critical missiles and munitions, including Tomahawk, AMRAAM, and the Standard Missile family. New framework agreements could support a larger and steadier production base if they become final contracts.

Growth engine

Air and missile defense

Raytheon sells systems tied to land and air defense, including Patriot-related programs. In Q1 2026, higher Patriot program sales were a major reason Raytheon grew.

Option

Naval radars and defense electronics

Raytheon also sells advanced sensors and naval systems, including radar families such as SPY-6. These programs can benefit from higher defense budgets, but timing depends on awards and government priorities.

04 Business segments

Three large pillars

Collins Aerospace33%modest
Pratt & Whitney36%modest
Raytheon31%growing fast

Segment mix is based on Q1 2026 total segment net sales before eliminations: Collins $7.6 billion, Pratt & Whitney $8.2 billion, and Raytheon $6.9 billion. Raytheon uses a fiscal quarter end that differs slightly from Collins and Pratt & Whitney.

05 Risk factors

What could break the plan

GTF powder metal recovery slips

High impact · Medium odds

Pratt & Whitney must inspect and repair affected PW1100 GTF engines. Management says the plan is on track, and aircraft on ground were down about 15% from year-end 2025. Still, RTX expects about a $0.7 billion cash impact in 2026, and delays could keep pressure on airlines and cash flow.

We watchPW1100 aircraft on ground, MRO output growth, and any change to the 2026 powder metal cash impact.

Munitions suppliers cannot ramp

High impact · Medium odds

Raytheon demand is strong, but demand does not equal shipments. Management said the munitions ramp needs a step change in supplier output. Rocket motors, microelectronics, and other constrained parts could cap growth if suppliers do not invest or deliver on time.

We watchFinal framework contracts, Raytheon delivery rates, and management comments on rocket motors and microelectronics.

Raytheon margins fade as volume rises

Medium impact · Medium odds

Raytheon had a strong Q1 2026, with operating profit margin of 12.1% versus 10.7% a year earlier. The risk is that higher volume brings overtime, supplier premiums, or fixed-price cost overruns. If margins fall while sales rise, the defense bull case weakens.

We watchRaytheon segment operating margin and net EAC adjustments each quarter.

Government and export approvals slow orders

Medium impact · Medium odds

Defense sales depend on budgets, awards, export licenses, and customer approvals. RTX also notes that foreign military and direct commercial sales can be delayed or blocked by government policy. That matters because defense backlog and bookings are a large part of the story.

We watchDefense bookings, foreign military sales approvals, and changes in U.S. defense budget priorities.

Compliance issues remain a drag

Medium impact · Low odds

RTX operates under existing Consent and Deferred Prosecution Agreements tied to past legal and compliance matters. These do not define the current growth story, but they add oversight and headline risk. A breach or new investigation could hurt trust and distract management.

We watchSEC filing updates on DOJ, DOS, and trade compliance matters.
06 Quick answers

In one breath

What does RTX actually do?

RTX is an aerospace and defense company. Collins makes aircraft systems, Pratt & Whitney makes and services engines, and Raytheon makes defense systems such as missiles, radars, and missile defense equipment.

Why is Raytheon important to RTX now?

Raytheon is seeing strong demand for land and air defense systems, naval munitions, and missile programs. Management raised its 2026 Raytheon sales outlook to high single digit growth after a strong Q1.

What is the GTF powder metal issue?

Pratt & Whitney found a rare condition in powder metal used in some PW1100 GTF engine parts. That requires faster inspections and repairs, which can ground aircraft and create cash costs for RTX.

Is RTX mainly a defense stock or an aerospace stock?

It is both. In Q1 2026, RTX had $162 billion of commercial backlog and $109 billion of defense backlog, so the company is tied to airline activity and government defense spending at the same time.