Finvest
SPXC Industrial Technology · HVAC · Data centers · Industrial software · Thesis updated July 12, 2026

Data center cooling meets richer software mix

01 Running thesis

Cooling growth, tariff questions

SPX is a two-part industrial company. HVAC is the bigger piece, and it is getting a lift from data center cooling. In Q1 2026, total revenue grew 17.4% year over year, while HVAC revenue grew 22.0%. Organic HVAC growth was 9.6%, mainly from higher cooling volumes tied to data center demand.

The other piece, Detection and Measurement, is becoming more profitable. Its Q1 2026 margin rose to 27.0% from 22.9% a year earlier. Management tied that to a better mix, including higher software-as-a-service revenue in transportation systems. SaaS means software sold by subscription, and it often carries higher margins than hardware.

The bear case is less about demand today and more about what can go wrong next. Section 232 tariffs could hit HVAC margins in Q2 2026 and beyond. SPX also has a large capacity buildout underway, with about $160 million of capex planned across 2025 and 2026 to add roughly $700 million of future capacity. If that work runs late or costs too much, the data center upside could slip.

May 2026SPX filed its Q1 2026 10-Q, confirming 17.4% revenue growth and a 27.0% D&M margin. The update also added clearer tariff and Middle East risk language.
Apr 2026Q1 results beat expectations, and management raised full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to about $8.30 to $8.50. HVAC grew 22.0%, while D&M benefited from more SaaS revenue.
Feb 2026Management guided to about 20% adjusted EBITDA growth in 2026. The data center plan became more concrete, with about $160 million of capex tied to roughly $700 million of added capacity.
Oct 2025SPX raised guidance after strong Q3 results and added more than $1 billion of liquidity for organic growth and acquisitions. Olympus Max orders were tracking toward the $50 million 2025 booking goal.
Aug 2025Q2 2025 showed faster HVAC momentum and a larger data center cooling opportunity. HVAC backlog rose 19.5% sequentially, adding visibility into 2026 demand.
Feb 2025The KTS acquisition expanded the higher-margin communications technology platform inside D&M. Management said leverage remained within its target range after the deal.
Oct 2024Q3 2024 showed strong HVAC organic growth and margin expansion. D&M also improved margins even though reported revenue was held back by a prior project roll-off.
Aug 2024The initial thesis formed around strong HVAC execution, data center and healthcare demand, and D&M margin recovery. SPX also raised 2024 adjusted EPS guidance.
02 Business model

Buy, build, and deleverage

SPX makes money by selling engineered equipment and systems to commercial, industrial, and government-linked markets. HVAC sells cooling, heating, air movement, and handling products. Detection and Measurement sells transportation systems, location and inspection tools, communication technologies, and aids to navigation.

The company also uses an acquisition flywheel. It buys related businesses, folds them into a segment, looks for cost and sales benefits, then uses cash flow to pay down debt and get ready for the next deal. Kranze Technology Solutions expanded the communications technology platform in Detection and Measurement in January 2025. Thermolec and Crawford expanded HVAC in early 2026.

That model works when acquired businesses fit well and the core markets stay healthy. It can break if SPX pays too much, misses integration targets, or adds debt right before demand cools. Q1 showed strong execution, but the valuation looks less forgiving than the business quality.

03 Product portfolio

Where the growth comes from

Growth engine

Data center cooling

Olympus Max is SPX's large-scale cooling product aimed at data centers. Management booked the first $50 million of orders in 2025 for 2026 revenue and expects data center revenue to grow about 50% in 2026.

Growth engine

Engineered air movement

Air handling and movement systems serve healthcare, institutional, commercial, and data center customers. Crawford adds more commercial air handling scale inside HVAC.

Steady

Electric heat

Thermolec adds electric duct heating and expands SPX's HVAC reach in Canada. This gives the segment another path to serve commercial building markets.

Growth engine

Location and inspection software

The Location and Inspection platform added locate performance management software. This can bring more real-time data tools and more recurring SaaS revenue.

Cash cow

Transportation systems

Transportation systems sit inside Detection and Measurement. In Q1 2026, higher SaaS revenue in this business helped lift D&M margin to 27.0%.

Option

Communication technologies

Kranze Technology Solutions scaled this platform in 2025. The Q1 2026 filing also said Middle East conflicts have created added demand for some communication technology products.

04 Business segments

Two segments, one bigger bet

HVAC70%growing fast
Detection and Measurement30%modest

Mix is based on Q1 2026 revenue from continuing operations: HVAC at $394.0 million and Detection and Measurement at $172.8 million. SPX said no one customer accounted for more than 10% of revenue in the periods shown.

05 Risk factors

What could break

Section 232 tariff hit

High impact · Medium odds

SPX says it has mostly offset past tariffs through pricing and other actions. The new Section 232 tariffs may be harder to offset because they can apply to the full customs value of goods, not only the metal content. Management expects the tariff issue to affect HVAC earnings in Q2 2026.

We watchListen for Q2 2026 commentary on actual tariff cost, pricing actions, and HVAC gross margin.

Capacity buildout delays

High impact · Medium odds

SPX is spending about $160 million across 2025 and 2026 to expand HVAC capacity. The plan is meant to add roughly $700 million of capacity once fully running. Delays, cost overruns, or poor startup efficiency could hurt margins and limit data center shipments.

We watchTrack capex, backlog conversion, startup costs, and updates on the Madison, Alabama facility.

SaaS mix fades

Medium impact · Medium odds

The D&M margin jump to 27.0% is a key proof point for the bull case. If the SaaS mix in transportation systems falls back, that margin may not hold above 25%. SPX has not yet given a clear recurring revenue percentage or a medium-term SaaS target.

We watchWatch whether D&M segment margin stays above 25% and whether management gives a recurring revenue mix.

Acquisition digestion risk

Medium impact · Medium odds

SPX bought Thermolec for $140.2 million and Crawford for $299.4 million in early 2026. These deals add scale, but they also add integration work, purchase accounting, and debt usage. The company needs the acquired businesses to hit synergy and revenue goals.

We watchTrack HVAC organic growth versus acquisition growth, integration cost updates, and leverage after each quarter.

Project and cycle swings

Medium impact · Medium odds

D&M includes project businesses where revenue can move around based on timing. Management has also noted softness in battery and semiconductor end markets. A weaker short-cycle demand signal could show up before the broader company slows.

We watchWatch D&M backlog, short-cycle orders, and management comments on battery, semiconductor, and commercial real estate markets.

Middle East supply pressure

Medium impact · Low odds

SPX does not have operations in the Middle East, but the company added risk language about the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. The concern is indirect: energy prices, inflation, shipping routes, and raw material costs. The filing said the direct impact was not material in Q1 2026, but the longer-term impact is unknown.

We watchMonitor raw material cost inflation, shipping comments, and energy-related margin pressure.
06 Quick answers

In one breath

What does SPX Technologies do?

SPX Technologies sells industrial equipment and systems through HVAC and Detection and Measurement. Its products include cooling systems, heating products, air handling, transportation systems, location tools, inspection software, communication technologies, and aids to navigation.

Why are data centers important to SPX?

Data centers need large cooling systems to keep servers running. SPX's Olympus Max product targets that demand, and management expects data center revenue to grow about 50% in 2026 and reach about 12% of total company sales.

Why did Detection and Measurement margins improve?

In Q1 2026, D&M margin rose to 27.0% from 22.9% a year earlier. SPX said the improvement came from a better product mix, including more higher-margin SaaS revenue in transportation systems.

What is the biggest near-term risk for SPX?

The clearest near-term risk is Section 232 tariffs, especially for HVAC. The company says these tariffs may be harder to offset than prior tariffs, so investors should watch Q2 2026 margin commentary closely.