Finvest
TEL Electronic components · Industrial tech · AI infrastructure · Auto supplier · Thesis updated June 12, 2026

AI strength, auto weakness

01 Running thesis

The growth story narrowed

TE Connectivity is still tied to two big themes: more electronics in vehicles and more data moving through factories, grids, data centers, and machines. The problem is that the two themes are no longer moving together. Q2 FY26 total organic growth slowed to 7.2%, after 15.0% in Q1.

The bull case now leans most on Industrial Solutions. Digital data networks grew 46.1% organically in Q2 FY26 as AI and cloud applications kept pulling demand. That is still very strong, even after slowing from 69.7% growth in Q1. Commercial transportation also stayed healthy, with 17.1% organic growth.

The bear case got stronger because Transportation Solutions slipped back into decline. The segment was down 0.5% organically in Q2 FY26, and automotive fell 3.8%. That makes the Q1 recovery look less settled. Medical also fell 3.5% organically, tied to a strategic product line exit.

Finn's view is mixed. TE Connectivity has real engineering depth, close customer ties, and a sound balance sheet profile. But the company is not firing evenly right now. The next year depends on whether auto stabilizes and whether AI data-network demand can stay near the 40% plus growth pace investors are watching.

Apr 2026Q2 FY26 showed a sharp slowdown. Total organic growth fell to 7.2%, Transportation Solutions turned negative, automotive fell 3.8%, and digital data networks growth slowed to 46.1%.
Jan 2026Q1 FY26 looked much better, with total organic sales up 15.0%. Transportation Solutions returned to growth and digital data networks grew 69.7% organically.
Nov 2025Fiscal 2025 confirmed the split thesis. Industrial Solutions grew strongly, helped by digital data networks, while Transportation Solutions still declined organically.
Jul 2025Q3 FY25 strengthened the bull case. Digital data networks organic growth reached 81.9%, and Transportation Solutions returned to growth.
Apr 2025Q2 FY25 showed faster AI-linked demand, with digital data networks organic growth at 78.0%. That helped offset continued Transportation Solutions weakness.
Jan 2025TE reorganized into two reportable segments for fiscal 2025. The new view showed a weak Transportation Solutions business and a stronger Industrial Solutions business powered by AI and cloud demand.
Nov 2024The initial view framed TE Connectivity as a global connector and sensor maker with broad end markets, strong engineering, and major exposure to autos and China.
02 Business model

Small parts, many machines

TE Connectivity sells connectors, sensors, and related parts. These products help move power, signal, and data inside cars, trucks, aircraft, factories, medical tools, energy systems, data centers, and other equipment.

About 80% of sales come from direct sales to original equipment manufacturers, or OEMs. An OEM is a company that builds the final product, such as a vehicle, machine, or device. The rest goes through third-party distributors.

The business works best when TE is designed into a customer's product early. Once a connector or sensor is chosen, switching can be painful because the part must fit the system and meet safety and reliability needs. That gives TE some staying power.

The weak point is the cycle. If auto production slows, factories delay upgrades, or data center buyers pause spending, TE can feel it quickly. The recent Q2 slowdown showed that even strong AI demand may not fully cover weakness in larger, older end markets.

03 Product portfolio

What TE sells

Cash cow

Automotive connectivity and sensors

These parts help move power, signals, and data inside vehicles. This is a core business, but Q2 FY26 automotive organic sales fell 3.8%.

Steady

Commercial transportation components

TE supplies parts for trucks and other commercial vehicles. This area was a bright spot in Q2 FY26, with 17.1% organic growth.

Growth engine

Digital data networks

These products support AI, cloud, and data center uses. Organic growth was 46.1% in Q2 FY26, but that was slower than 69.7% in Q1.

Growth engine

Energy products

TE sells products for power distribution and energy systems. The Richards Manufacturing acquisition in fiscal 2025 added overhead and underground electrical and gas distribution products.

Option

Medical connectivity

TE serves medical technology customers with connector and sensor products. Q2 FY26 medical organic sales fell 3.5%, mainly due to a strategic product line exit.

Steady

Aerospace, defense, and marine

These markets need parts that can work in harsh settings. They add useful diversity outside autos and consumer-like cycles.

04 Business segments

Two nearly equal halves

Transportation Solutions51%declining
Industrial Solutions49%growing fast

Segment mix is from Q2 FY26 net sales. Transportation Solutions was 51% of sales and Industrial Solutions was 49%, so weakness in either half can move the whole company.

05 Risk factors

What could break the thesis

Auto slowdown lasts longer

High impact · Medium odds

Transportation Solutions is still the larger segment at 51% of Q2 FY26 sales. Its organic sales declined 0.5% in Q2 FY26, and automotive fell 3.8%. If that weakness continues, the Q1 recovery was likely a false start.

We watchTransportation Solutions organic growth, especially automotive organic growth.

AI demand cools faster than expected

High impact · Medium odds

Digital data networks is the main bull-case engine. It grew 46.1% organically in Q2 FY26, but that was down from 69.7% in Q1. Growth can stay strong and still disappoint if investors expected a longer period of extreme demand.

We watchDigital data networks organic growth staying near or above 40%.

Medical exit hides weaker demand

Medium impact · Medium odds

Medical organic sales fell 3.5% in Q2 FY26. Management linked the drop mainly to a strategic product line exit, but the remaining business still needs to prove it can grow. If the exit also hurts margins, the issue could matter more than the sales line suggests.

We watchMedical organic sales after the product line exit and any margin comments from management.

China and global supply chain pressure

Medium impact · Medium odds

TE has large China exposure. In fiscal 2024, it had 18 principal manufacturing sites in China, and about 20% of net sales were to customers in China. Trade rules, demand swings, or local regulation could hurt sales or production plans.

We watchChina sales commentary, tariff changes, and any changes to manufacturing footprint.

Customers build more in house

Medium impact · Low odds

TE benefits when customers rely on its engineering for specialized connectivity and sensor designs. In fast-moving AI systems, some large customers may try to design more of the stack themselves. That could reduce demand for outside suppliers over time.

We watchCustomer insourcing comments and margin pressure in digital data networks.
06 Quick answers

In one breath

What does TE Connectivity actually make?

TE Connectivity makes connectors, sensors, and related components. These parts help move power, signals, and data through vehicles, machines, data centers, medical tools, and energy systems.

Why does AI matter for TE Connectivity?

AI matters because data centers need more high-speed connectivity. TE's digital data networks business grew 46.1% organically in Q2 FY26, helped by AI and cloud applications.

What is the biggest risk for TE Connectivity stock?

The clearest risk is a longer slowdown in automotive demand. Transportation Solutions was 51% of Q2 FY26 sales, and automotive organic sales fell 3.8% in the quarter.

Is TE Connectivity more industrial or automotive now?

It is close to balanced. In Q2 FY26, Transportation Solutions was 51% of net sales and Industrial Solutions was 49%.