Finvest
TGB Copper mining · Copper · Mining · U.S. cathode · Thesis updated July 20, 2026

Florence lifts Trekor, Gibraltar still bites

01 Running thesis

Florence is the new swing factor

The bull case is now easier to explain. Florence Copper is no longer only a build story. It has produced first cathodes and entered commercial production. Management still expects 30 to 35 million pounds of copper from Florence in 2026, weighted to the second half, and targets 80 to 85 million pounds in 2027 at steady state.

That matters because Florence makes refined copper cathode inside the United States. If the U.S. adds 15% to 30% tariffs on imported cathode in late 2026 or 2027, Florence could be worth more than a normal copper mine with the same output.

The bear case sits at Gibraltar. The connector pit has missed some higher-grade zones and has more oxide, supergene, and transitionary ore than expected. That ore is harder to recover, so the internal view now uses a 75% to 80% recovery expectation for 2026 instead of assuming a full rebound.

This is a company with a real new growth asset and a real old-asset problem. The stock works best if Florence ramps cleanly while Gibraltar stops surprising investors on grade, recovery, and cost.

May 2026▲Florence reached commercial production and kept its 30 to 35 million pound 2026 target. The upgrade is partly offset by Gibraltar C1 cash cost rising to US$2.63 per pound.
Feb 2026→Florence produced first cathodes, which de-risked the growth case. At the same time, Gibraltar's connector pit showed weaker grade and more difficult ore, so the recovery outlook moved lower.
Nov 2025▲Gibraltar improved in Q3 with higher grades and 77% mill recoveries. Florence also reached SX-EW substantial completion and moved into commissioning.
May 2025▼Gibraltar had harder mining conditions and weaker oxidized-ore recoveries. Management cut 2025 production guidance by 10 million pounds.
Feb 2025→The 2025 setup became mixed. Gibraltar was set for a weak first quarter, while lower TC/RCs and the Gibraltar SX-EW restart improved the cost and production outlook.
Nov 2024▲The original view centered on Florence first copper by late 2025, near-zero TC/RCs, and higher molybdenum credits. A labor disruption at Gibraltar kept the view from being one-sided.
02 Business model

Copper pounds, costs, and treatment charges

Trekor makes money by mining copper and molybdenum, then selling copper concentrate, molybdenum byproduct, and copper cathode. The key math is simple: more pounds sold at a good copper price, minus mining costs, processing costs, freight, and smelter charges.

Gibraltar sells concentrate, so treatment and refining charges matter. These are fees paid to turn concentrate into usable metal. New offtake agreements are expected to push average TC/RCs slightly below zero for 2025 and 2026, which helps margins versus the old cost structure.

Florence is different. It is an in-situ copper project, meaning copper is dissolved underground, pumped to the surface, and plated into cathode. That skips a mill and smelter, but it adds a new operating challenge: the company must keep drilling and adding wells to maintain flow.

The model can break in three ways: lower copper prices, fewer pounds, or higher unit costs. Q1 2026 showed that cost risk is not theoretical, as Gibraltar C1 cash cost rose to US$2.63 per pound due partly to diesel and explosives inflation.

03 Product portfolio

What Trekor sells and builds

Cash cow

Gibraltar copper concentrate

Gibraltar is the main producing mine and the current cash base. Its issue is not whether it can run, but whether the connector pit can deliver better grade and recovery.

Steady

Gibraltar molybdenum

Molybdenum is a byproduct that can lower net copper costs when prices and grades cooperate. The connector pit is expected to lift moly output toward 2 million pounds per year.

Steady

Gibraltar SX-EW cathode

The refurbished SX-EW plant adds direct cathode output from Gibraltar. Management has framed the run-rate opportunity at 4 million to 6 million pounds per year.

Growth engine

Florence Copper

Florence is now in commercial production and is the main growth engine. The 2026 target is 30 to 35 million pounds, with 80 to 85 million pounds targeted for 2027.

Option

Yellowhead

Yellowhead is a longer-term copper project moving through environmental assessment work. British Columbia adding it to a priority projects list is a helpful signal, but it is not yet a producing asset.

Option

New Prosperity

New Prosperity is a longer-dated project option. It could matter in a strong copper market, but permitting and politics remain major gates.

04 Business segments

Asset exposure today

Gibraltar mine70%declining
Florence Copper22%growing fast
Yellowhead project6%modest
New Prosperity project2%flat

This mix is a Finvest 2026 operating-exposure view based on management guidance and project status, not a filed revenue split by asset. Gibraltar still drives current cash flow, while Florence is ramping into a much larger role.

05 Risk factors

What could go wrong

Gibraltar geology reset

High impact · High odds

The connector pit is not matching the older reserve model. Management has seen fewer high-grade pockets and more oxide, supergene, and transitionary ore than expected. That can mean lower grades, lower recoveries, and higher cost per pound.

We watchGibraltar head grade, mill recovery, and any change to the 75% to 80% 2026 recovery expectation.

Florence wellfield treadmill

High impact · Medium odds

Florence has moved past construction risk, but it still has ramp risk. The company says it needs to add 80 to 100 new wells every year for a decade or longer. If drilling, flow rates, or copper recovery lag, the 2026 and 2027 output targets could slip.

We watchQuarterly Florence production, well drilling pace, flow rates, and timing of the 80 to 85 million pound steady-state target.

Cost inflation at Gibraltar

Medium impact · Medium odds

Gibraltar's C1 cash cost rose to US$2.63 per pound in Q1 2026. Management pointed to diesel and explosives inflation. If costs stay high while grades stay weak, the mine could generate less cash even in a decent copper market.

We watchReported C1 cash cost per pound, diesel and explosives commentary, and quarterly gross margin.

Copper price and tariff timing

High impact · Medium odds

Trekor is highly exposed to copper prices. The tariff story is also uncertain. A 15% to 30% U.S. cathode tariff would help Florence, but if it is delayed, reduced, or canceled, that upside may not show up.

We watchU.S. copper cathode tariff decisions, cathode premiums, and benchmark copper prices.

Permitting on future projects

Medium impact · Medium odds

Yellowhead and New Prosperity can add long-term value, but both depend on permits, politics, and community support. Priority-project status for Yellowhead helps, but it does not remove the approval risk.

We watchYellowhead environmental assessment milestones and any government decision on project approvals.
06 Quick answers

In one breath

Is Trekor Metals mainly a copper company?

Yes. Copper is the main product, with molybdenum as a useful byproduct at Gibraltar. Florence Copper adds more direct copper cathode production in the United States.

Why does Florence Copper matter so much?

Florence changes Trekor from a mostly Gibraltar story into a multi-asset producer. It also makes refined copper cathode in the United States, which could be valuable if import tariffs arrive.

What is the biggest risk for TGB stock?

The clearest risk is execution. Gibraltar needs better grade and recovery, while Florence needs a clean ramp with steady well additions and strong flow rates.

What should investors watch next?

Watch Florence production against the 30 to 35 million pound 2026 target. Also watch Gibraltar recovery, C1 cash cost, and Yellowhead permitting updates.