Finvest
UHAL Moving and Storage · Founder led · Asset heavy · Self-storage · Thesis updated July 12, 2026

Fleet costs still swamp the U-Haul moat

01 Running thesis

A repair plan, not a repair yet

U-Haul still owns a valuable position. When people move themselves, the orange U-Haul brand is often the first name they know. The network of dealers, company stores, trucks, trailers, and storage sites is hard to copy.

The problem is profit. In fiscal 2026, Moving and Storage revenue grew to $5.69 billion from $5.49 billion. Yet operating earnings in that segment dropped to $350.2 million from $645.8 million. The company made more revenue but kept far less of it.

The bear case is simple: the truck fleet has become too expensive. Rental fleet depreciation rose by $186.6 million in fiscal 2026, and losses from selling retired rental equipment rose by $117.6 million. Q4 was ugly too, with a $128 million net loss.

The bull case is now real, but it is still speculative. Management said rental truck capital expenditures, meaning spending on trucks, should fall by about $560 million in fiscal 2027. If that cut truly lowers future depreciation and used-equipment losses, earnings could recover. The $350 million share buyback also shows management thinks the stock is cheap, but it must be funded while profits are weak.

May 2026Management gave the first clear repair plan after the weak FY2026 result: about $560 million less rental truck capital spending in fiscal 2027. The company also authorized a $350 million buyback, but the core business remains under pressure.
May 2026The FY2026 10-K confirmed the damage. Moving and Storage operating earnings fell 46% even though revenue rose, mainly because fleet depreciation and used-equipment sale losses worsened.
Feb 2026Q3 fiscal 2026 showed a sharper profit break. Moving and Storage operating income fell to $7.1 million from $127.3 million a year earlier.
Nov 2025Q2 fiscal 2026 showed the same bad mix: revenue growth, but higher fleet depreciation and bigger losses on equipment sales. Storage occupancy also kept sliding.
Aug 2025Q1 fiscal 2026 confirmed that used-equipment economics had not stabilized. Net losses on rental equipment disposals increased, while fleet depreciation rose again.
May 2025The FY2025 10-K showed that the profit reset was already underway. Gains on equipment sales dropped sharply, and fleet depreciation rose by $128.1 million.
Feb 2025Q3 fiscal 2025 added a second concern: storage occupancy began to fall while U-Haul was adding capacity. Moving and Storage operating income also declined about 30%.
Nov 2024Q2 fiscal 2025 reinforced the bear case. Core profit fell despite revenue growth as used-equipment gains shrank and fleet depreciation rose.
02 Business model

Trucks feed storage and services

U-Haul makes most of its money by renting moving trucks and trailers. It also rents self-storage rooms and portable U-Box units, sells boxes and towing gear, and sells protection plans tied to moving and storage.

The model works best when trucks earn good rental revenue, hold their resale value, and can be sold at a fair price after retirement. That loop broke in fiscal 2026. Newer trucks cost more, resale values fell, and depreciation became a much heavier charge.

Storage adds a second growth path. U-Haul built and bought more storage space, including about 5.3 million net rentable square feet added in fiscal 2026. But new space creates costs before it fills. Management called this a cost bow wave, and occupancy now has to prove it can recover.

The insurance segments are smaller. They help support the moving ecosystem through protection products and senior-market life and health products. They are useful, but they do not change the main story: Moving and Storage drives the company.

03 Product portfolio

What U-Haul sells

Cash cow

Truck and trailer rentals

This is the core business and the main source of revenue. It is also where the biggest profit pressure now sits because trucks cost more and used-truck resale values are weaker.

Growth engine

Self-storage rooms

U-Haul rents fixed storage units at owned locations. Revenue is growing, but owned storage occupancy ended fiscal 2026 at 71.0%, down from 77.0% a year earlier.

Option

U-Box portable storage

U-Box gives customers a portable moving and storage choice. Management said other revenue grew in fiscal 2026 mainly because of increases in the U-Box program.

Steady

Moving supplies and towing products

U-Haul sells boxes, tape, pads, hitches, towing accessories, propane, and related services. These products add revenue around a move, but they are not large enough to offset fleet cost pressure by themselves.

Steady

Protection and insurance products

The Property and Casualty segment underwrites parts of Safemove, Safetow, Safemove Plus, Safestor, and Safehaul. The Life Insurance segment sells life, health, Medicare supplement, and annuity products mainly to seniors.

04 Business segments

One segment carries the load

Moving and Storage94%modest
Property and Casualty Insurance2%modest
Life Insurance4%flat

Segment mix uses fiscal 2026 reportable segment revenue from the FY2026 Form 10-K, before small eliminations. Moving and Storage is about 94% of reportable segment revenue, so the company is highly concentrated.

05 Risk factors

What could break the recovery

Truck spending cut does not flow through

High impact · High odds

Management plans to cut fiscal 2027 rental truck capital spending by about $560 million. That sounds large, but depreciation may not fall right away because trucks already in the fleet still carry high costs. If the cut is delayed or does not lower depreciation, the bull case weakens fast.

We watchFiscal 2027 rental equipment capital expenditures, rental fleet depreciation, and management comments on timing.

Used truck prices stay weak

High impact · High odds

U-Haul lost $104.5 million on disposals of rental equipment in fiscal 2026, compared with gains in the prior year. Lower resale values hurt twice: they create losses when trucks are sold and they raise depreciation while trucks are still owned. This is the clearest pressure point in earnings.

We watchQuarterly net gains or losses on disposals of rental equipment.

Storage occupancy keeps falling

High impact · Medium odds

Owned storage occupancy ended fiscal 2026 at 71.0%, down from 77.0%. Management also said same-store occupancy fell 540 basis points, or 5.4 percentage points, and blamed most of the drop on a delinquent room cleanup program. If that was not a one-time cleanup, storage demand or tenant quality may be weaker than it looks.

We watchAverage monthly occupancy, end-of-period occupancy, and any repeat explanation tied to delinquent rooms.

New storage creates a cost bow wave

Medium impact · High odds

U-Haul added about 5.3 million net rentable square feet of storage in fiscal 2026. New buildings cost money before they are full, which can drag on margins. Management says well-located units should fill over time, but the timing matters.

We watchNew storage square footage, occupancy on owned storage locations, and real estate depreciation.

Buybacks compete with debt needs

Medium impact · Medium odds

The company started a $350 million share repurchase authorization after a sharp earnings drop. At the same time, Moving and Storage had $8.12 billion of debt obligations at March 31, 2026 and forecast fiscal 2027 debt payments of $904.0 million. Buybacks may help if the stock is cheap, but they add pressure if cash flow weakens.

We watchShare repurchases, cash balance, borrowings, interest expense, and debt maturities.
06 Quick answers

In one breath

Why did U-Haul profit fall so much in fiscal 2026?

The main hit came from the truck fleet. Rental fleet depreciation rose by $186.6 million, and losses from selling retired rental equipment rose by $117.6 million.

What is the main bull case for U-Haul stock?

The bull case depends on management cutting rental truck capital spending by about $560 million in fiscal 2027. If that lowers future depreciation and disposal losses, earnings could recover from a very weak base.

Is U-Haul mainly a storage company now?

No. Storage matters and is growing, but Moving and Storage as a whole is still about 94% of reportable segment revenue. Truck and trailer rentals remain central to the business.

What should investors watch next?

Watch fiscal 2027 truck capital spending, rental fleet depreciation, and losses on used equipment sales. Also watch whether self-storage occupancy stabilizes after the delinquent room cleanup.