Digital growth, wrapped in country risk
- VEON has shifted from a phone company toward a digital operator in emerging markets.
- Digital services produced $207 million of EBITDA in 2025 at a 27.3% margin.
- Multiplay customers are the key lever, with nearly 4x the ARPU of voice-only users and one-third the churn.
- Kyivstar now trades in the U.S., but Ukraine war risk still sits at the center of the story.
- Bangladesh remains the weak spot after unrest, market contraction, and a possible impairment flag in the 2025 filing.
A digital bet with hard country risk
The bull case is simple. VEON left Russia behind and can now focus on its smaller set of emerging-market operators. The plan is to sell more than basic phone service. It wants each local brand to become a daily app bundle for payments, health, education, entertainment, and connectivity.
That plan is starting to show real profit. In Q4 2025, digital service revenue was more than 20% of group revenue. For the full year, digital services produced $207 million of EBITDA at a 27.3% margin. Management’s midterm target is for digital revenue to reach 50% of group revenue.
The bear case is just as real. Kyivstar is valuable, and its U.S. listing makes that value easier to see. But it operates in a country at war. VEON also faces a specific nationalization risk tied to sanctions on beneficial owners of LetterOne, its largest shareholder. Bangladesh adds another problem, since political unrest hurt the business and the 2025 filing warns of a possible impairment charge there.
Finn’s view is balanced. VEON has better growth tools than a normal telecom company, but the stock still carries debt, currency, war, tax, and political risk. This is not a clean compounder. It is a recovery and digital-services story where the country risks can change the outcome fast.
Phone networks feeding local apps
VEON makes money from mobile voice, mobile data, fixed broadband, and digital services. Its operating companies sell these under local brands such as Jazz in Pakistan, Kyivstar in Ukraine, Banglalink in Bangladesh, and Beeline in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
The newer model is called digital operator 1440. The idea is to earn from customers across the full day, not just when they make calls or use mobile data. A customer might use the network, then also use JazzCash for payments, Uklon for rides, a health app, streaming, education, or insurance.
The best customers buy more than one service. Management says Multiplay customers generate nearly 4x the average revenue per user, or ARPU, of voice-only customers, have one-third the churn, and make up 56% of total consumer revenue. That is why the digital mix matters so much.
VEON is also trying to make the telecom base less capital-heavy. It sold the Pakistan tower portfolio to Engro Corp in 2025 and continues to use tower deals and separate infrastructure structures. The risk is that lease costs, spectrum payments, war repairs, and taxes can still soak up cash even when reported EBITDA grows.
What VEON sells
Mobile and data service
This is the base business. VEON sells voice, mobile data, and connectivity to more than 150 million customers across five countries.
Fixed broadband
Fixed broadband adds home and business connectivity, especially in markets where VEON already has a strong local brand. It supports the customer bundle but is not the main growth story.
JazzCash
JazzCash is VEON’s mobile financial services platform in Pakistan. Its operational separation and push for a full digital bank license could unlock value if regulators approve the path.
Uklon and local marketplaces
Kyivstar bought 97% of Uklon, a Ukrainian ride-hailing and delivery platform, for about $158 million. This adds a daily-use app to Kyivstar’s digital bundle.
Insurance and health services
VEON bought TPL Insurance in Pakistan to build low damage-cost insurance products for JazzCash and FikrFree. It also added Tabletki.ua in Ukraine after year-end 2025 to expand digital healthcare.
Sovereign AI and Starlink direct-to-cell
VEON is building local language AI models for markets such as Kazakh, Ukrainian, Urdu, and Bengali. It also has a global framework with Starlink to bring direct-to-cell satellite connectivity to its markets.
Pakistan leads the mix
Shares are based on 2025 reportable segment revenue from the 2025 Form 20-F, excluding HQ, eliminations, and Others. Pakistan is the largest segment, while Ukraine carries the highest geopolitical risk.
What could break the thesis
Kyivstar war damage and nationalization
High impact · Medium oddsKyivstar is central to VEON’s value, but it operates in Ukraine during an active war. The 2025 filing also flags nationalization risk tied to sanctions on beneficial owners of LetterOne, VEON’s largest shareholder. Network damage, power issues, customer loss, or a government action could hit both cash flow and the value of VEON’s Kyivstar stake.
Bangladesh impairment
Medium impact · Medium oddsBangladesh revenue fell in 2025, and the filing names a possible impairment charge for the Bangladesh cash-generating unit after political unrest. Even if EBITDA improved because of one-off provision releases, weaker customers and market contraction can still lower the value of the asset.
Digital growth stalls
High impact · Medium oddsVEON’s upside depends on customers using more digital services, not just buying data. If Multiplay adoption slows, the 50% digital revenue target becomes harder to reach. That would make VEON look more like a normal telecom company again.
Debt, leases, and local-currency pressure
Medium impact · High oddsVEON reports in U.S. dollars but earns in currencies such as Pakistani rupees, Ukrainian hryvnia, Kazakh tenge, Bangladeshi taka, and Uzbekistani som. The 2025 filing shows finance costs of $535 million and notes pressure from currency depreciation. Tower sales can help the balance sheet, but lease and financing costs still matter.
Regulatory and tax shocks
Medium impact · Medium oddsVEON operates in markets where tax and telecom rules can change quickly. In Pakistan, the 2025 filing discusses an adverse Islamabad High Court ruling related to PMCL Deodar and a settlement framework. Spectrum payments, tax claims, and license terms can all change cash needs.
In one breath
What does VEON actually do?
VEON runs telecom networks and digital services in Pakistan, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Bangladesh, and Uzbekistan. It sells mobile service, data, broadband, payments, health, entertainment, ride-hailing, and other local apps.
Why is VEON called a digital operator?
Management wants VEON to earn from daily digital services, not only phone plans. In 2025, digital services produced $207 million of EBITDA, and digital service revenue was more than 20% of group revenue in Q4.
Why does Kyivstar matter so much?
Kyivstar is VEON’s Ukrainian business and now trades in the U.S. through Kyivstar Group. VEON owned 83.6% after a February 2026 secondary offering, so Kyivstar can make hidden value more visible, but it also brings war and nationalization risk.
Is VEON a safe telecom stock?
No. It has real telecom cash flows and digital growth, but it also faces war risk, political risk, currency swings, tax disputes, and debt costs. The reward depends on digital growth outpacing those risks.