Finvest
WLYB Publishing · Research publishing · Education content · AI licensing · Thesis updated July 2, 2026

Research is carrying a shrinking Learning business

01 Running thesis

Research has the lead

Wiley has moved back to a two-part story. Research is growing again, while Learning is still shrinking. In FY26, Research revenue grew 4% in constant currency and made up 67% of company revenue. Learning revenue fell 7% in constant currency and made up 33%.

The bull case now depends mostly on Research. Open access article output rose 25%, and Research AI licensing revenue grew to $33.1 million from about $11 million. The post-year-end Emerald Publishing acquisition, priced at about $452 million, adds more Research content and may give Wiley more leverage when selling content to AI model builders.

The bear case is simple. AI licensing can arrive in large, uneven deals, then fade. If the $33.1 million Research AI number is not repeatable, investors may see a much slower core publishing business. At the same time, Learning may be in a long decline that cost cuts cannot fully fix.

The next year should answer three questions. Can Wiley integrate Emerald well, can it sign more large AI deals, and can Learning settle into a smaller decline instead of becoming a bigger drag?

Jun 2026▲FY26 results moved the thesis back to a split story. Research grew 4% in constant currency, Learning fell 7%, and the Emerald Publishing deal added more weight to the Research strategy.
Mar 2026→Q3 FY26 blurred the picture. Research slowed to 1% constant currency growth, while Learning's decline moderated to 2%, making the company look more stagnant than sharply split.
Dec 2025▼Q2 FY26 showed a sharper split. Research grew 5% in constant currency, but Learning fell 11% because of market softness and inventory pressure.
Sep 2025▼Q1 FY26 weakened the story. Research benefited from AI revenue, but Learning fell 8% in constant currency, showing that AI timing can hide weak core demand.
Jun 2025▲FY25 looked better because Learning grew 2%, helped by AI-related content licensing. The same filing also made AI risk more visible.
Mar 2025▼Q3 FY25 hurt the turnaround case. Learning fell 6% in constant currency, while Research growth excluding GenAI was not strong enough to offset the pressure.
Dec 2024▲Q2 FY25 improved the outlook after Wiley completed its divestiture program. Learning showed 5% growth excluding a GenAI project, which eased fears of immediate decline.
Sep 2024→The initial view framed Wiley as a streamlined Research and Learning company. Research was modestly growing, while a one-time GenAI deal helped mask weakness in Learning.
02 Business model

Digital content, licensed many ways

Wiley sells trusted content. In Research, it licenses journals and platforms to universities, companies, and government customers. It also earns money when authors or funders pay to publish open access research, which means readers can access the article without a normal paywall.

The company is now mostly digital. Wiley said 85% of FY26 revenue came from digital products and services, and 48% of revenue was recurring. Recurring revenue matters because it is more likely to come back each year than one-time book or license sales.

Learning sells digital and print books, courseware, and professional assessment services. This side is under more pressure from weak print demand, retail softness, and changing education buying patterns.

AI licensing is the new wild card. Wiley can license its content library to help train large language models. That can be high-margin revenue, but the timing and size of deals are hard to predict.

03 Product portfolio

What Wiley sells

Cash cow

Research journals and platforms

This is Wiley's core Research business. It sells peer-reviewed scientific, technical, and medical content to institutions and other professional customers.

Growth engine

Open access publishing

Authors or their funders pay so research can be read without a normal subscription. FY26 open access article output grew 25%, making this one of the clearer growth areas.

Option

AI content licensing

Wiley licenses its content for training AI models. Research AI licensing revenue reached $33.1 million in FY26, but this line can be uneven from year to year.

Growth engine

Emerald Publishing

Wiley bought Emerald after FY26 for about $452 million. The deal adds scale in Research and is meant to strengthen Wiley's AI content advantage.

Steady

Academic and professional books

This is part of the Learning segment, but it is under pressure. Print book weakness has been a key reason Learning revenue has fallen.

Steady

Digital courseware and assessments

These tools serve students, professionals, corporations, and libraries. They help shift Learning toward digital, but they have not offset the segment's full decline.

04 Business segments

Two segments, moving apart

Research67%modest
Learning33%declining

Segment mix is from fiscal 2026, ended April 30, 2026. Research was 67% of consolidated revenue and Learning was 33%, before the Emerald Publishing acquisition increased Research scale.

05 Risk factors

What could go wrong

AI licensing may not repeat

High impact · Medium odds

Research AI licensing revenue rose to $33.1 million in FY26 from about $11 million. That helped Research growth, but these deals can be large and uneven. If FY27 has fewer AI deals, core growth could look much weaker.

We watchResearch AI licensing revenue in FY27, plus management comments on what is recurring versus one-time.

Learning keeps shrinking

High impact · High odds

Learning revenue fell 7% in constant currency in FY26. Weak print book sales and lower AI licensing have hurt this segment. If that decline becomes the normal pattern, Research must do more work just to keep total revenue flat.

We watchLearning constant currency revenue growth, especially print book trends and academic demand.

Emerald adds debt and execution risk

Medium impact · Medium odds

Wiley bought Emerald Publishing for about $452 million after FY26. The deal fits the Research strategy, but it must be integrated well. If synergies are late or margins disappoint, the balance sheet could feel more pressure.

We watchEmerald revenue contribution, margin profile, synergy updates, and debt reduction progress.

Cost cuts may not be enough

Medium impact · Medium odds

The bull case assumes Wiley can execute its $120 million cost-cutting program. Cost savings can help margins, but they cannot fully solve weak demand. If revenue keeps sliding in Learning, cuts may only slow the damage.

We watchProgress against the $120 million cost program and whether adjusted margins expand while revenue trends hold.

AI can also disrupt Wiley

Medium impact · Medium odds

Wiley can sell content to AI firms, but AI can also create new competition, legal risk, compliance costs, and possible cannibalization. The company added a specific AI risk factor in its FY2025 annual filing. The same technology that creates licensing upside could weaken demand for some content products.

We watchNew AI copyright rulings, customer use of AI substitutes, and Wiley's legal or compliance cost disclosures.
06 Quick answers

In one breath

What does John Wiley & Sons do?

Wiley publishes research, academic, professional, and learning content. Its biggest business is Research, which serves universities, companies, governments, and researchers.

Why does AI matter for Wiley?

AI companies can license Wiley's content to train large language models. That can be valuable because Wiley owns a large library of reviewed and structured content, but the revenue may be lumpy.

Is Wiley growing?

Parts of it are growing, but the whole picture is mixed. In FY26, Research grew 4% in constant currency, while Learning fell 7% in constant currency.

What should investors watch next?

Watch whether Wiley signs more AI licensing deals, integrates Emerald Publishing well, and slows the decline in Learning. Those three items will likely shape the next phase of the thesis.