Finvest
XMTR Industrials · AI marketplace · Manufacturing · Small cap · Thesis updated July 12, 2026

AI quoting is scaling, profits still lag

01 Running thesis

Fast growth, not cheap

Xometry looks stronger after Q1 2026. Revenue reached $205.1 million, up 36% year over year, and management raised its full-year revenue growth outlook to 27% to 28%. The clearest win is the Marketplace business, which grew 40% and reached a 34.7% gross margin.

The bull case is simple. Xometry uses AI to price custom parts quickly, then matches buyers with suppliers that can make them. If more buyers and suppliers join, the data gets better, quotes get sharper, and the marketplace can scale with less cost added each time.

The Siemens collaboration adds a large possible channel. Siemens agreed to invest $50 million in Xometry common stock and plans to embed Xometry's quoting, lead time, and manufacturability tools into Siemens Xcelerator. That could put Xometry in front of many engineers at the point when they design parts.

The bear case still matters. Xometry lost $5.3 million on a GAAP basis in Q1 2026. Services revenue fell 5%, international adjusted EBITDA stayed negative, and the founder CEO moving to Executive Chair adds transition risk. The stock also needs growth to stay high, because valuation is already a major pressure point.

May 2026Q1 2026 strengthened the growth and operating leverage case. Revenue grew 36%, Marketplace revenue grew 40%, adjusted EBITDA reached $10.5 million, and management raised full-year revenue growth guidance to 27% to 28%.
May 2026The Siemens collaboration added a major possible growth channel, but the page treats it as unproven until Xometry shares adoption or revenue metrics. The planned CEO transition also adds a new watch item.
Feb 2026The 2025 Form 10-K showed Xometry's first full year of positive adjusted EBITDA at $18.5 million. The same filing kept the bear case alive with a $61.7 million GAAP net loss and a 4% decline in Services revenue.
Nov 2025Q3 2025 showed Marketplace revenue growth of 31% and adjusted EBITDA of $6.1 million. The quarter gave more support to the view that the marketplace can gain leverage as it grows.
May 2025Q1 2025 marked Xometry's first positive adjusted EBITDA quarter at $0.1 million. It also showed that Services revenue was still declining, which remains a key risk.
02 Business model

A marketplace spread on custom parts

Xometry makes most of its money from transactions in its manufacturing marketplace. A buyer asks for a custom part, Xometry gives a fast quote, and then Xometry finds a supplier to make the part. The company earns the gap between what the buyer pays and what it pays the supplier.

That model can scale well, but it carries pricing risk. Xometry often commits to a buyer price before it secures the final supplier cost. If its quote is wrong, or if supply costs jump, gross margin can fall.

The smaller Services segment includes Thomasnet advertising and marketing, supplier financial services, and software like Workcenter. This business has useful supplier relationships, but revenue has been shrinking because Thomas advertising and marketing services have been under pressure.

03 Product portfolio

Tools for buyers and suppliers

Growth engine

Instant Quoting Engine

This is the core AI tool that gives buyers fast pricing, lead times, and manufacturability feedback. It is the main reason Xometry can turn a messy custom-parts market into an online buying flow.

Growth engine

Manufacturing marketplace

Buyers can source CNC machining, injection molding, 3D printing, sheet metal fabrication, urethane casting, and other custom work. This segment drove about 93% of Q1 2026 revenue.

Option

Siemens Xcelerator integration

The May 2026 Siemens collaboration aims to place Xometry quoting tools directly inside Siemens engineering software. It could become a low-cost customer channel, but adoption and revenue metrics are not yet clear.

Steady

Teamspace

Teamspace gives enterprise buyers collaboration tools for sourcing custom parts. It helps Xometry serve larger teams and procurement workflows.

Cash cow

Thomasnet

Thomasnet offers supplier advertising and digital marketing. The business is still useful to the supply side of the network, but Services revenue fell 5% year over year in Q1 2026.

Steady

Workcenter and supplier services

Workcenter is cloud software for manufacturers, while financial services can help suppliers get paid faster. These tools help keep suppliers close to Xometry's marketplace.

04 Business segments

Marketplace now dominates

Marketplace93%growing fast
Services7%declining

This mix uses Q1 2026 revenue. Marketplace was $191.3 million of $205.1 million total revenue, while Services was $13.8 million.

05 Risk factors

What could break the story

GAAP losses linger

High impact · Medium odds

Xometry is improving on adjusted EBITDA, but it still reported a $5.3 million net loss in Q1 2026. The 2025 Form 10-K also showed an accumulated deficit of $432.0 million at year-end 2025. If GAAP profits stay out of reach, investors may lose patience with the growth story.

We watchWatch for a full quarter of GAAP net income, not only adjusted EBITDA.

Bad quotes squeeze margins

High impact · Medium odds

Xometry gives buyers prices before it always knows the final supplier cost. That creates a real spread risk. If the AI quote is too low, or if suppliers demand more, Marketplace gross margin can fall.

We watchWatch Marketplace gross margin versus the Q1 2026 level of 34.7%.

Services keeps shrinking

Medium impact · High odds

Services revenue fell 5% year over year to $13.8 million in Q1 2026. The pressure is tied to Thomas advertising and marketing services. If this decline continues, it can offset some of the profit gains from the core marketplace.

We watchWatch whether Services revenue returns to growth or is managed only for cash.

Siemens hype outruns revenue

Medium impact · Medium odds

The Siemens deal is a strong validation point, but Xometry has not yet shown how much revenue it will create. A software integration can take time, and user interest does not always turn into orders. The market may expect results faster than they arrive.

We watchWatch for disclosed Siemens user adoption, order volume, or revenue contribution.

CEO transition slows execution

Medium impact · Medium odds

Founder Randy Altschuler is moving to Executive Chair, and a new CEO will take over. Leadership changes can work well, but they can also shift priorities or slow decisions. This matters because Xometry is still proving its path to GAAP profitability.

We watchWatch the first full-quarter commentary from the incoming CEO and any change in growth or margin targets.

Trade policy raises costs

Medium impact · Medium odds

Xometry faces uncertainty from U.S. trade policy, including tariff changes noted in its risk factors. Tariffs can raise supplier costs, disrupt supply chains, or make customers delay orders. That could hurt both demand and margins.

We watchWatch management comments on tariffs, supplier costs, and customer order delays.
06 Quick answers

In one breath

What does Xometry actually do?

Xometry helps companies buy custom manufactured parts online. Its AI quoting tool estimates price and lead time, then the company matches the order with suppliers in its manufacturing network.

How does Xometry make money?

Most revenue comes from the Marketplace segment. Xometry charges the buyer for a part and pays a supplier to make it, keeping the spread between the two prices.

Is Xometry profitable?

Xometry had positive adjusted EBITDA of $10.5 million in Q1 2026. But it still had a GAAP net loss of $5.3 million, so the company has not fully crossed into standard accounting profit.

Why does the Siemens partnership matter?

Siemens plans to embed Xometry's quoting and manufacturability tools into Siemens Xcelerator software. If it works, engineers could move from design to sourcing without leaving their CAD workflow.